Monday Night Football recap: Packers (-7.5) cover vs. Rams, but game stays Under 39.5

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The Green Bay Packer beat the Los Angeles Rams 24-12 and covered as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 15.
The Packers are usually a public team, so the majority of bettors nationally were happy as 60% of the money at DraftKings sportsbooks was on the Packers -7.5. The percentage of bets was only 47% at -7.5 (according to VSiN.com’s Betting Splits page), but obviously much higher for those betting when the line was -7 to cause it to rise to the closing number. The Packers also helped a lot of bettors to close out parlays and teasers from earlier in the weekend.

However, Over bettors – including those using Over 39.5 in the ever-popular favorite/Over parlay – were disappointed as the Packers were driving in the closing minutes and even went for it on 4th-and-2 from the Rams’ 4-yard line (that was great news at the time for Over bettors as a field goal would have still kept it Under 39.5). They didn’t get the touchdown as Aaron Jones picked up the game-clinching first down at the Rams’ 1-yard line. But then the Packers went into victory formation and Aaron Rodgers took a couple of knees to run out the clock and keep the game Under the total.
At DraftKings, 63% of the bets and 71% of the money was on Over 39.5. The final score did get there for those who used 6-point teasers down to Over 33.5. In fact, all four options with 6-point teasers (Packers -1.5, Rams +13.5, Over 33.5, Under 45.5) all cashed to further hurt sportsbooks.

 

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NFL Week 15 betting stats

Favorites went 12-4 SU in NFL Week 15, but under dogs still led 9-6-1 ATS with the push in the Chargers’ 17-14 win vs. the Titans as 3-point home faves. The outright upsets were by the Jaguars (+4 vs. Cowboys), Steelers (+3 at Panthers), Lions (+2.5 at Jets) and the Giants (+4 at Commanders on Sunday Night Football).
Home teams went 9-7 SU, but road teams led 8-7-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 8-8.

NFL season-long betting stats

On the season, faves lead 142-76-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 117-96-7 ATS (54.9%).
Home teams lead 120-96-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 108-103-6 ATS (51.2%). Unders lead 122-100-2 (55%) while primetime Unders improved to 27-19-1 (58.7%)