MNF Cowboys vs. Chargers Week 6 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Monday Night Football game. In Week 6, that game features the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Cowboys got blown out by the San Francisco 49ers last week, but they’ll be hoping to bounce back with a win over a Chargers team that is fresh off a bye week. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Cowboys vs. Chargers preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Cowboys vs. Chargers
Date: Monday, October 16
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Cowboys vs. Chargers Spread
It feels like people are quickly losing faith in the Cowboys, with losses to the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many. Dallas scored a total of 26 points over those two games, with Dak Prescott struggling in both of them. And Prescott was particularly bad against the 49ers, throwing for just 153 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions last week. But San Francisco is one of the best defensive teams in the league. So, it wasn’t all that surprising to me that Prescott and the Cowboys offense didn’t show up in that one. But I’d be shocked if they don’t look a lot better against a Chargers team that is just 22nd in the league in Defensive DVOA this season.
Los Angeles has been especially miserable against the run in 2023, with the team being 28th in Defensive DVOA against the ground attack. That’s impossible to ignore in a matchup like this one, as the Cowboys should be able to establish Tony Pollard and the running game here. And if they can do that, Prescott will feed off it in the play action game. I know the Chargers just had a bye week to work on stopping this Cowboys offense, but I don’t believe that will be enough. This team is just too disjointed on that side of the ball, so I think this is the perfect get-right spot for Dallas.
As for the Cowboys defense, it isn’t fair to expect them to completely shut down a very talented Chargers team. Justin Herbert is one of the game’s elite quarterbacks now, and he has a bunch of weapons at his disposal. But I do trust Dallas to get some key stops in this game, especially with Kellen Moore being the Los Angeles offensive coordinator. Moore was with the Cowboys from 2018 to 2022, so the Dallas coaching staff will be very familiar with how he wants to approach this one. That should help a Dallas defense that is incredibly talented to begin with. The Cowboys are eighth in the league in Defensive DVOA this season, and they’re loaded at every level of the defense.
It’s also just hard to ignore that the Chargers don’t have much of a home-field advantage on a good day. But in a game like this one, I’d expect this to feel more like a home game for the Cowboys than it will for the Chargers.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Total
Both of these offenses have the potential to put up a lot of points, but I can’t pull the trigger on this one going Over this high of a total. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, and the team also rushes more often than all but five teams in the league. That’s generally a good recipe for an Under. And the Chargers likely spent a lot of their extra preparation time addressing their weak defense. So, while I like Dallas to move the ball on Los Angeles, I don’t think it’ll be anything like what we saw when the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings marched down the field against the Chargers.
The Under has also hit in 12 of the 16 games that the Cowboys have played with a spread of +3 to -3 under head coach Mike McCarthy. So, when Dallas plays in games that are expected to be close, it usually results in a lower scoring affair.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Player Props
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Tony Pollard Anytime TD Scorer
You’ll have to pay up to take Pollard to score a touchdown in this game, but I think it’s worth it here. This is a game that I’m expecting Dallas to win, and I think the team does it on the back of the ground attack. With that in mind, I’d be surprised if the Cowboys win this one without Pollard finding the end zone at least once. Pollard is also due for a rushing touchdown, as he hasn’t scored since doing it twice against the New York Giants in the season opener. Given his role in the offense, that feels fluky.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Prediction
In addition to everything I said about the Cowboys before, the team is also 7-0 against the spread when facing defenses that allow at least 260.0 passing yards per game under McCarthy. And Dallas won those games by an average of 19.5 points per game. I don’t think this one will be quite as lopsided as those, but I do think the Cowboys are going to roll into SoFi Stadium and handle their business. This is an actual play for me and not just a lean.
Bet: Cowboys -2
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