NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes clearly leads the race after Week 11

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There are still seven weeks left of the 2022 season, but the NFL MVP race appears to be down to four contenders – and one is well ahead of the field. Patrick Mahomes was the favorite coming into Week 11 at +125, but he is now the odds-on favorite to win the award for the second time in his career at -150 per DraftKings Sportsbook.

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NFL MVP Odds (DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes -150
Tua Tagovailoa +500
Jalen Hurts +550
Josh Allen +700
Joe Burrow +1800
Lamar Jackson +3000
Geno Smith +4000
Kirk Cousins +6000
Tyreek Hill +8000
Justin Herbert +10000
Tom Brady +10000
Jimmy Garoppolo +10000
Derrick Henry +15000
Dak Prescott +20000
Justin Jefferson +20000
Micah Parsons +20000
Christian McCaffrey +25000
Daniel Jones +25000
Travis Kelce +25000
Nick Chubb +25000
Aaron Rodgers +30000
Justin Fields +40000

Why is Mahomes the favorite?

There were a lot of great performances this past week, but not all of them were seen nationwide. Mahomes orchestrated a six-play, 75-yard drive in 1:15 capped off by a Travis Kelce touchdown reception with 31 seconds left to lead the Chiefs to a 30-27 win over the Chargers. With 329 passing yards to just 197 for Josh Allen in the Bills win over the Browns, Mahomes now leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,265, a full game’s worth over Allen’s 2,930.

Mahomes also has six more passing touchdowns than any other quarterback with 28 (Burrow). With seven games left, Mahomes is on pace for his best season since the 2018 campaign when he won the AP NFL MVP in a landslide over Drew Brees. He does have two games left against the stingy Broncos defense, but the rest of the remaining schedule features the Rams, Bengals, Texans, Seahawks and Raiders.

Who are the other MVP contenders?

The Dolphins are 7-1 when Tagovailoa starts and he has a stellar 18/3 TD/INT ratio, so he’s very much deserving of being the second favorite at +500. Hurts has fallen out of favor a little bit as the Eagles have struggled recently, but the dual-threat signal caller is still right there with Tua at +550. Up until this past week with 16 carries for 86 yards in the win over the Colts, Hurts hadn’t been running as much or as effectively, which took his odds up a bit.

Allen is the most interesting player at +700, given the prolific numbers he has the ability to put up the rest of the way. However, the ongoing elbow injury and the fact that only Davis Mills (11) has thrown more interceptions than Allen (10) means he’ll have to put up some extremely good stats in the remaining seven games to overcome Mahomes, the other challengers and his somewhat underwhelming season to date. 

NFL Schedule This Week

Buffalo Bills (-10, 54) vs. Detroit Lions
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13, 46)
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5, 44)
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 46)

Allen and Tagovailoa have ample upside in their matchups this week, as the Bills take on the worst defense in the league with the Lions on Thanksgiving and Tua draws a very favorable matchup against the Texans. Hurts takes on the Packers on Sunday Night Football, where he should be able to maintain his status quo.

The Chiefs, however, are over a two-touchdown favorite against the rudderless Rams, who don’t even know who will start at quarterback. For the purposes of Mahomes, the Rams have an excellent run defense, but a below average pass defense, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him a bigger favorite in the NFL MVP market next Monday.