Best bets for Week 9 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews.
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(odds as of November 3, 11:30 p.m. PT)
Cowboys at Eagles (-3; 47)
At 7-1, the Eagles have the best record in the NFL, but the schedule is about to get way more difficult over the next six weeks. Although Philadelphia is 7-1, they only rank No. 9 in DVOA. Teams with the NFL’s best record do not typically rate near the bottom of the top ten in DVOA. This shows that the Eagles have several flaws.
During Jalen Hurts first season as a starter in 2021, he only threw nine interceptions in 15 starts. Last year, Hurts only threw six. Through eight games this year, Hurts has already thrown eight picks. He has had his good moments as well, but he does not look quite 100% physically.
The Eagles’ larger issues are on defense. PFF grades them as No. 23 in pass coverage. That is not good news against a Dallas offense that has ranked No. 1 in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play over the last three weeks. The Cowboys are using more motion offensively and getting the ball out quicker.
Dallas got smacked around when they stepped up in class in Week 5 at San Francisco, but they should be more prepared this time around.
Dak Prescott has been in his bag against the NFC East, where he is 28-7 SU and 25-10 ATS.
This is a good time to sell Philadelphia in the short term.
Bet: Cowboys +3
Bills at Bengals (-2; 50.5)
Last season, the NFL was forced to cancel the pivotal Week 17 MNF game between Buffalo and Cincinnati due to the terrifying injury to Damar Hamlin. Buffalo was also handled at home in the Divisional Round by Cincinnati, 27-10, last year. The Bengals dominated the Bills on both sides of the line of scrimmage in that game as Cincinnati outrushed Buffalo 172 to 64.
Last week, the Bengals finally looked like the team many thought would represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl. They never trailed the 49ers in a 31-17 victory. Joe Burrow, who moved to 17-7 ATS in his career as an underdog, went 28-for-32 and threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns.
Who else is also profitable as an underdog? Josh Allen. Allen is 16-7-2 ATS as an underdog in the regular season.
The Bills are on an 0-4 ATS run, and everyone is starting to say that Cincinnati is all the way back.
Buffalo, still at 5-3 and No. 3 in Overall DVOA, is getting sold a bit too soon.
Bet: Bills +2
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Panthers +8.5/Saints -2
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Colts/Panthers OV 44
