Last week, I started my annual NFL playoff series by looking at the trends of recent years by digging into the wild card round. I revealed a number of different systems and methodologies that had been very successful in recent years, angles regarding outright winners, playoff droughts, and rematches that continued to thrive. This week, I will be moving on to the divisional round. The six winners of last weekend join #1 seeds San Francisco and Baltimore in the theoretical Elite Eight, looking to take another huge step towards the Super Bowl.

As we analyze the remaining teams, I should note that in one of my final NFL Strength Rating Update pieces for the year, I felt that two teams had separated themselves from the pack. Those two teams are, in fact, the top seeds, and each brings a unique set of talents to the game. That said, will being off last week help or hurt their prospects? Two years ago, both top seeds, Green Bay and Tennessee, looked rusty in their opening playoff games and were quickly bounced. I’ll look at that scenario and a lot more in this piece.

 

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In 2022, for the first time since 2009, road teams took the divisional round by winning three of the four contests. Hosts got it back last year by going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. All four games went Under the total this past January too, and that was an all-time first. What does all of that tell us about the prospects for this weekend’s games? Unfortunately, for the most part, it details a process of being unable to trust patterns and to focus more closely on the specific matchups.

One important point of note regarding the lines for the games. Typically, this round sees the largest favorites of any playoff round. Six years ago (2017) marked the only time since 2009 that fewer than two teams were favored by at least a TD. That particular season, I speculated at the time that perhaps it signaled a couple of upsets coming. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both pulled those upsets. In 2022, I noted that none of the four teams were favored by more than 5.5 points, and perhaps it signaled a greater potential for upsets. That turned out to be the most prophetic words I shared. For 2024, we again have two hosts playing as favorites of more than a TD and two not.

Recent years have produced some wild action in this round. The 2019 season’s most exciting game saw Kansas City rally from a 24-0 deficit to beat Houston 51-31, and the Chiefs would eventually go on to win a Super Bowl title. Surely, you remember the 45-42 Jacksonville win at Pittsburgh in 2018 or the Minnesota Miracle that same season. Just two years ago, we witnessed a game dubbed one of the greatest playoff games in history where the Chiefs outlasted Buffalo 42-36 in an epic overtime shootout, a game that eventually ended up forcing postseason overtime rules changes, which we are now under. Those two AFC powers will collide again this weekend, only this time in Buffalo.

So, let’s start digging through the NFL Divisional Playoff log of recent seasons to see if we can’t uncover some trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this weekend’s games.

  • The outright winner owns a 34-11-1 ATS (75.6%) mark in the last 46 divisional playoff games. This is actually well below the 2023-24 regular season standard of just short of 80%, and if you recall, in last week’s wild card article, outright winners were on a much stronger 58-9-1 ATS run and proceeded to go 5-1 ATS last weekend. The high volume of lofty point spreads obviously contributes to this.
  • Since 2009, home teams are on a convincing run of 40-16 SU and 28-27-1 ATS in the divisional round. They have also been 17-14-1 ATS in the last eight years, re-emphasizing the importance of not only a home-field advantage but the extra week of rest and health that comes for teams securing a bye in the wild card round. Of course, for a fourth straight season, only the two #1 seeds enjoyed the luxury of having last weekend to rest.
  • There have only been four road favorites in the last 27 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other three lost outright and ATS, including Atlanta, who last came up short 15-10 as a field goal favorite at #1 seeded Philadelphia in 2018. Unless we see a huge swing in any game or any late-breaking injury news, this trend will go untested again in 2024.
  • Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5 points or less (or underdog) are just 16-14 SU and 12-18 ATS (40%) since 2006, while those laying 6-points or more are 30-11 SU and 19-21-1 ATS in that same span. That’s a difference of almost 20% outright and 8% against the point spread.
  • Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge. Tennessee’s upset of Baltimore in 2019 is the only conflicting result in that group.
  • Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 43 tries (14-29 SU).
  • In intra-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 4-2 SU and ATS surge. However, host Philadelphia clobbered the Giants 38-7 a year ago. None of this weekend’s games apply.
  • Here are the divisional round records since 2002 for the teams playing this weekend. Note that only three of them, the Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers reached this level last season:

Kansas City: 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS
Buffalo: 1-2 SU and ATS
San Francisco: 5-1 SU and ATS
Green Bay: 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS
Houston: 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS
Baltimore: 3-7 SU and ATS
Tampa Bay: 2-1 SU and ATS
Detroit: First appearance since 1992

  • There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based upon the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturdays, home teams have gone 23-5 SU and 19-9 ATS (67.9%) over the last 14 seasons. However, these teams are on a current 1-3 ATS slide. On Sundays, road teams have performed much better, going 17-19 SU and 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) since 2006! They were 1-1 SU and ATS in 2023. Last weekend’s wild card article showed similar trends, and both of this year’s Saturday teams won outright and ATS, while both Sunday hosts lost ATS.
  • In terms of AFC/NFC breakdown, AFC home teams are 20-9 SU and 14-14-1 ATS (50%) in the last 29, while NFC hosts are 25-11 SU and 17-19 ATS (47.2%) since 2006 in this playoff round.
  • In terms of wild card teams’ potential success in the divisional round, note that 16 of the last 21 wild card teams to cover the spread in divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or less. For this weekend, Houston, Kansas City, Buffalo and Tampa Bay all played well enough defensively to qualify for this potential trend.
  • With four of this last weekend’s wild card winners topping the 30-point mark, it should be noted that seven of the last nine teams that scored 31 points or more in their wild card wins covered their divisional point spreads. This does not include the Chiefs and Bills from 2022 nor the Cowboys and 49ers from last year, as they squared off against one another. This will affect the Texans, Bills, Packers, and Buccaneers in 2024.
  • Of the last 35 teams that pulled off road wins in the wildcard round to advance to this weekend, 20 of them have covered the point spread (58.8% with one push), and 12 have won a second straight road game outright. The Packers will be seeking a second straight road win this weekend.
  • When both teams in a divisional playoff matchup were not in the playoffs last season, as was the case most recently in the 2020 Minnesota-San Francisco matchup, home teams are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS since ’05, having gone OVER the total all but one game. For 2024, there are two such matchups: Houston/Baltimore and Tampa Bay/Detroit.
  • Returning playoff teams from the prior season playing as hosts in the divisional round to teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year are 13-10 SU but just 7-16 ATS (30.4%) in their last 23 when playing as single-digit favorites, including 1-3 SU and ATS the last two years. San Francisco will test this trend this weekend.
  • In divisional playoff games, when both teams were in the playoffs the prior season, hosts are 19-7 SU and 14-11-1 ATS (56%) when favored by 5.5 points or more. This applied to the Cincinnati-Buffalo matchup in 2023, and the Bengals pulled the 27-10 upset win. Unless we see a massive line move in Bills-Chiefs, this trend will go untested.
  • In 2020, Green Bay played as a non-returning playoff team, hosting a returning playoff team in the divisional round. Those teams have been on a 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS run since 2008. Detroit hosts Tampa Bay in this situation this weekend.
  • Teams fight all season long to half home-field advantage throughout their conference playoffs. However, that advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are 27-13 SU but just 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) dating back to 2004.
  • Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6 seeds (or worse), as in that matchup, the home teams are just 12-7 SU and 6-12-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2006. In 2023, Philadelphia crushed the Giants. For 2024, San Francisco hosts #7 Green Bay.
  • #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7 points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round. As of press time, both #1 seeds were favored by 9.5 points on Saturday, and don’t figure to be affected by this trend.
  • #2 seeds have been arguably more effective than #1 seeds when it comes to protecting home-field advantage in the divisional round, going 27-11 SU and 21-17 ATS (55.3%) over the last 19 playoff seasons. Buffalo is the AFC’s #2 seed.
  • NFC #1 seeds have been fairly strong in recent years, going 9-2 SU in their last 11. In the last six games, they allowed just 12 PPG.
  • In the last 28 matchups between a #1 seed and a wild card team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, Under the total is 20-8-1 (71.4%). This is the case in the 49ers-Packers matchup.
  • #2 seeds are a high scoring surge at 16-10 Over (61.5%) in the last 13 years, however Under was 2-0 last season. Buffalo is the #2 seed for 2024.
  • Home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 19-6 Over (76%) the total surge. Hosts averaged 33.6 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 15 Unders and five Overs (75%) since 2014. The hosts scored 11.5 PPG fewer in those road covers. In other words, home teams cover with offense, and road teams cover with defense.

Following the Line/Total Moves

Last week I showed you how bettors were correct at a 29-25-1 ATS rate in wild card playoff games heading into last weekend’s action.  This was determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. This same group has been even more sharp in the divisional round, going 25-13 ATS (92.1%) since 2009. Interestingly, only nine of the last 59 divisional round games moved more than a point off the opening number, and those all came in the last 10 years. Odds makers have been quite sharp in that regard. For 2024, the only consensus early moves seem to be on Baltimore and Detroit. Again though, often the key moves come late in the hours before kickoff.

Bettors have picked successfully on early totals as well, going 28-23 (54.9%) in the last 51 divisional playoff games that have seen the total move off the opening number. However, they are 2-9 the last three seasons following an 11-2 surge. As of press time, early bettors were favoring Under in all of the games except the Chiefs-Bills contest.

Stats Generated in Divisional Playoff Games

  • It has taken more points to win in the divisional playoff round as opposed to the wildcard round. Last week I explained that only five home teams that topped the 20-point mark lost in the last 22 years of wild card playoff action. The benchmark for the divisional round is a touchdown higher at 27 points, as home teams that reach that point total are 41-5 SU and 33-13 ATS (71.7%) since 2002. However, Kansas City did win but failed to cover last year vs. Jacksonville.
  • Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with a 19-23 SU and 7-33-2 ATS (17.5%) record since 2002 in divisional playoff games. If you consider this year’s four home teams, Baltimore averaged 28.4 PPG, San Francisco 28.9, Buffalo 26.5, and Detroit 27.1.
  • The magic point total for road teams in divisional playoff action has proven to be 21 points, as they are 22-21 SU and 29-13 ATS (92.9%) since 2002, when they reached that mark. When scoring 20 points or less, the chance of a road team winning in this round drops dramatically to 6-40 SU and 17-27-2 ATS (38.6%) in that same span. The Buccaneers are the lowest-scoring road team in this year’s lot, averaging 20.5 PPG.
  • Since 2002, the offensive potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points or more, Over is 28-6 (82.4%). When road teams fail to reach 20 points, Under is 29-7 (80.6%) in the last 36.
  • Teams that gain more first downs are 34-23-2 ATS (59.6%) in the last 15 divisional playoff seasons.
  • Teams that control the time of possession are just 31-28-1 ATS (52.5%) in the divisional playoffs since 2009.
  • Divisional playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 40-18-1 ATS (69%) over the last 15 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff game are only 28-23-1 ATS (54.9%) since 2010.
  • Putting up big passing numbers in divisional playoff games hasn’t been a real key to success, since teams with an edge in that stat are just 31-28-1 ATS (52.5%) since 2009, including 5-11 ATS the last four seasons.
  • Teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays have been quite successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a divisional playoff game are on a 37-17-1 ATS (68.5%) run.  This year, consider which team is more apt to put up big passing plays in the matchups. San Francisco, Baltimore, Houston, Detroit, and Buffalo all ranked in the NFL’s top eight in yards per pass attempt this season.
  • The turnover has also been a big factor in winning or losing divisional playoff games of late, as teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent have gone 33-12-1 ATS (73.3%) since 2008. Not surprisingly, this is the most important in-game statistical factor.
  • Home teams that won 13 or more games in the regular season are only 26-17 SU and 16-27 ATS (37.2%) in the divisional playoffs since 2006. When matched up against a team that won 11 or more games in the regular season, that mark drops to just 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) during that span. Baltimore and San Francisco both won 13+ games, while Kansas City is the only road team to win 11 games in the regular season.
  • There seems to be a noticeable difference in success levels for road teams in the divisional playoff round that won 10 or fewer games in the regular season as opposed to those that were 11 wins or better. The lesser group is just 12-32 SU and 20-23-1 ATS (46.5%) since 2002, while the more elite group was 16-20 SU but 24-12 ATS (66.7%). This weekend, the road team that won 11 or more games in the regular season was the Chiefs. All three others won 10 games or fewer.
  • Home teams that won at least four more games during the regular season than their divisional playoff opponent are 14-3 SU and 9-8 ATS since 2005. Baltimore last lost on this trend in 2020. No games will apply for a third straight season.
  • Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are 40-20 SU and 33-25-1 ATS (56.9%) over the last 15 divisional playoff seasons, however just 5-7 ATS (41.7%) since the playoffs expanded three years ago.  Baltimore, San Francisco, Detroit, and Buffalo own the edges in this category for 2024.
  • Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 35-37 SU and 42-29-1 ATS (59.2%) since 2006. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 32-40 SU and 42-29-1 ATS (59.2%). Baltimore, San Francisco, Detroit, and Buffalo again own these categories in 2024.
  • Passing yardage has meant more than rushing in terms of outright divisional playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going just 44-28 SU and 37-34-1 ATS (52.1%) over the last 18 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams share a similar 45-27 SU and 38-33-1 ATS (53.5%) mark. Teams in that latter group were 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS last year and 12-4 ATS over the last four seasons. The same four teams hold the season-long edges in both, although it could be argued that in terms of recent performances, Houston and Green Bay are among the league’s best.
  • Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a decent edge when it comes to divisional playoff success, going 49-23 SU and 41-30-1 ATS (57.8%) over the last 18 seasons.  The offensive yards per play statistic also reflects a good level of success, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are 36-24 SU and 34-25-1 ATS (57.6%) over the last 15 years, including 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS the last three seasons. Once again, the same four host teams apply here.
  • Unlike the wildcard round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator long-term on point spreads, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 41-27 SU and 33-34-1 ATS (49.3%) in the divisional playoff round since 2007.
  • Completely disregard the offensive turnovers statistic since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponents are only 28-33 SU and 26-34-1 ATS (43.3%) since 2008 in divisional playoff games.
  • Teams that converted third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 40-32 SU but 27-44-1 ATS (38%) in the last 72 divisional playoff games. This includes a 9-15 ATS record over the last six playoff seasons. This is somewhat surprising as the third down conversion percentage usually goes hand-in-hand with the quality of QB play. Baltimore, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay hold the “edges” here.
  • Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 25-27 SU and 24-27-1 ATS (47.1%) in the divisional round over the last 13 years, including 4-8 ATS the last three seasons. If you recall, defensive scoring edges were much more advantageous in the Wild Card round.
  • Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have slipped to 29-31 SU and 25-34-1 ATS (41.8%) in the divisional playoff round since ’08, including 5-15 ATS in the last five years. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush have been better for a more extended period at 44-25 SU and 39-29-1 ATS (57.4%).
  • Divisional playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 39-29 SU and 30-37-1 ATS (44.8%) over the last 17 seasons in this round. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are on a run of 35-25 SU and 29-29-1 ATS (50.9%) over the last 15 divisional playoff seasons.
  • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively own a record of 31-29 SU and 25-34-1 ATS (42.4%) since 2009, while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a bit better outright at 32-26 SU and 24-33-1 ATS (42.1%).  Teams with edges in both of these categories are 3-8 ATS in the last three years. Clearly, this is not a reliable indicator, and essentially, defensive numbers have paled in comparison to the offensive prowess of late in the divisional round.
  • When analyzing divisional playoff statistical matchups, defensive yards per point is not a valuable handicapping nugget either, as teams with an edge there are just 34-36 SU and 35-34-1 ATS (50.7%) in the last 70 games of this round.
  • Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 32-25 SU and 36-20-1 ATS (64.3%) since 2009 in divisional playoff games. This one is easily our best defensive statistical indicator, and the teams that more forced turnovers for the 2024 matchups are Baltimore, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay.
  • Teams that stopped third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a 34-27 SU and 35-25-1 ATS (58.3%) run in the last 61 divisional playoff games, although they are 4-8 ATS over the last three years.

Summary

Clearly, the divisional round trends and systems don’t pack the same wallop as those of the wild card round. The back-and-forth results of this round have really thrown trend handicapping for a loop. If you’re looking for long-term strategies that have fared well historically. However, it would seem that home field, the backing of sharp bettors, and good offenses led by proven quarterbacks is a good recipe to start with as you sit down to handicap this week’s games.

Considering what we’ve analyzed with regard to divisional playoff performance and statistics, only certain statistics are really worthy of consideration when handicapping the games. Interestingly though, the key stat angles that have shown betting success recently are the ability to generate big plays in the passing game and not having to work hard for points. In other words, a lot falls on the quarterbacks. Not a surprise. Which QBs do you value more in each of the four games?

Best of luck, and don’t be shocked to see at least one matchup you might not have expected next weekend when we review the conference championships. I’ll have my Best Bets for the weekend ready on Thursday or Friday.

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