NFL First Touchdown
The NFL season keeps chugging along and players keep finding the end zone. Some of them even do it by scoring the first touchdown of the game. That’s the goal and what we’re trying to figure out here in hopes of cashing some of those First Touchdown Scorer tickets. We have some really interesting matchups here this week and some nice opportunities to hopefully get the team to score first right. From there, it’s a bit of a crapshoot, but the biggest step is to figure out which team to pick players from.
Before digging into Week 9, let’s look back at Week 8. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 1 (13)
RB: 9 (85)
WR: 12 (84)
TE: 2 (40)
D/ST: 1 (4)
No TD: 3 (16)
Tight ends were invisible this week relative to past weeks, including last week, when we had nine first touchdown scorers from that position. The distribution of running backs and wide receivers is virtually even now. I believe three teams without a touchdown was the highest of the season or tied for the highest. Shame on those teams.
As far as the frequent flyer list, we added some names and some moved up the board.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 5 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 5 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 3 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 4 | 2 |
| Bucky Irving (TE) | 4 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 3 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 3 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Denzel Boston (CLE) | 3 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs (WAS) | 3 | 0 |
We had the fewest red-zone opportunities of the season this past week with just 89. It was a good week from an efficiency standpoint, though, coming in at better than 60%. You can see the weekly breakdown and year-to-date results here.
Out of 619 touchdowns, 473 of them have come in the red zone.
We saw four first team TDs on the opening possession, a big downgrade from last week. In fact, that was the lowest number of the season. We’re up to 58 for the season, with 10-6-7-7-9-5-10-4 from Weeks 1 through 8.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Packers | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Rams | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| 49ers | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Jaguars | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Colts | 6/8 (75%) |
| Bears | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Patriots | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Raiders | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Steelers | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Chiefs | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Panthers | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Texans | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Buccaneers | 4/8 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 4/8 (50%) |
| Ravens | 4/8 (50%) |
| Titans | 4/8 (50%) |
| Bengals | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Dolphins | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Giants | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Broncos | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Cardinals | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Eagles | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Falcons | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Jets | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Seahawks | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Bills | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Commanders | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Lions | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Saints | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Vikings | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Chargers | 1/7 (14.3%) |
| Browns | 1/8 (12.5%) |
Bye weeks have the percentages and the number of games all messed up, but they’re ordered by percentage alphabetically. After a week without scoring first, the Packers took care of business last week and are tied for first with the Rams. We’ll see how those teams and the ones below them do this week.
Some nuggets from Week 8:
- While the Rams are 7/8 scoring first, they have not scored on the opening possession yet this season
- The only teams not to score on their first possession are the Browns, Broncos, Rams, Vikings, and Saints; the Browns play the Saints this week – maybe a 1st Quarter Under?
- The Bills have four Josh Allen first team TDs and two from James Cook; Khalil Shakir is the only non-QB/RB
- The Panthers scored on their opening possession in Weeks 1 and 2 and haven’t since
- The Bears started 0/2 and are 5/6 since, including three first-possession scores
- For the first time since Sean Payton took over calling plays, the Broncos did not score the first TD
- The Dolphins have actually scored the first TD in three of their last four games
- The Steelers started 0/2 and are 5/6 since, including two first-possession scores
- The Bucs have scored the first TD in three straight games
With that, let’s get to the Week 9 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 9 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026
Jaguars (85.7%) at Ravens (50%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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Bengals (42.9%) vs. Falcons (37.5%) (Madrid) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
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Browns (12.5%) at Saints (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lions (28.6%) at Dolphins (42.9%)
Rams (87.5%) at Commanders (28.6%)
Giants (42.9%) at Eagles (37.5%)
Jets (37.5%) at Chiefs (57.1%)
Broncos (37.5%) at Panthers (57.1%)
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Texans (57.1%) at Chargers (14.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
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Raiders (62.5%) at 49ers (85.7%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Packers (87.5%) at Patriots (62.5%)
Cardinals (37.5%) at Seahawks (37.5%)
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Buccaneers (50%) at Bears (37.5%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
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Bills (28.6%) at Vikings (28.6%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 9 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave +850, Devaughn Vele +1100
Pretty simple here. Shedeur Sanders is starting for the Browns, who have been terrible in this department with Deshaun Watson.
Olave has eight red-zone targets and Vele has seven, as those two have combined for 15 of 18 targets for the Saints on the season. The Browns don’t pressure much, so Tyler Shough should have some more time to get rid of the ball in this one. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Shough has had the seventh-lowest time to throw this season, though he’s still thrown 13 TDs. I think this is a great matchup for him.
Miami Dolphins: Ollie Gordon II +750, Caleb Douglas +1800, Kevin Coleman Jr. +5500
Going to take a couple of shots here, as the Dolphins have been doing better in this department of late. Jeff Hafley was the Packers defensive coordinator, so he knows the Lions personnel and scheme really well, which could help tremendously if it takes a little time for Miami to get going.
Gordon has three of Miami’s first team TDs, all of them coming in successive weeks. Wide receivers have scored first since the bye, as the Dolphins are 2/2 after that Week 6 R&R sesh. It’s hard not to look at the main back at this price.
Four of the five shortest prices are Lions and they really haven’t been that good in this department. I think any of Malik Washington, Douglas, or even Coleman Jr. at the balloon number are worthwhile looks. Coleman had a red-zone target last week and is tied for the team lead among wide receivers with three.
The Lions have also allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. There are a lot of options at good prices for Miami if they are able to score first.
Houston Texans: Marvin Harrison Jr. +1400, Foster Moreau +2500
Harrison and former Ohio State teammate C.J. Stroud connected for the first TD in Week 7. Coming off of a bye, I assume Harrison has gotten deeper into the playbook and has probably gotten some extra reps in with his old QB in hopes of living up to the potential he had in college. The Texans have really spread the ball around in the red zone this season and Harrison has a couple of targets since coming over, but that familiarity could shine through.
Moreau actually has two first team TDs this season and three in total. Dalton Schultz still doesn’t have a TD yet. I’m not sure if opposing defenses are losing track of him or what, but Moreau as more of an option in the scoring areas has been a bit of a surprise. Despite what we’ve seen so far, Moreau is 25/1 and Schultz is 12/1. I’ll take a shot at double the price here against a Chargers team that has only scored the first TD once and hasn’t even scored a TD in the last two games.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
