NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
Week 5 was another beautiful one for my first touchdown betting system. If you don’t know, I track each and every team’s first touchdown and then use that data to narrow the field when betting who will score first. Check out the tracker if you want to take a peek before a game. Of the 12 games that featured mismatches, eight of them followed the trend of the better FTD (first touchdown) team scoring first. That, among other trends I’ve pointed out throughout the season, allowed me to cash two bets (Justice Hill and Jaleel McLaughlin) and make a very nice profit on the week.
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I’ll get to my picks for Week 6 in a moment, but first, my weekly friends and foes:
Week 6 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
The Ravens: Baltimore just can’t seem to leave this part of my articles! Each week, I’ve mentioned how they love to score early with their run game, and typically do it with a different player than the previous week. They are now 5-for-5 when it comes to scoring the first touchdown this season, and have done it with four different players. This past week, Justice Hill (+1800 at DraftKings) added his name to the TD tally. They’ve used up just about everybody on their roster who can run at this point, so we might need to repeat a player for their next game.
Raiders WRs: Despite having the fourth-worst offense in the league when it comes to points per game, Las Vegas is one of the best FTD teams so far this year. They’ve scored first in four of their five games, all of which have been via wide receiver. Even better for us bettors looking to narrow the field, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are the only two Raiders WRs with more than 62 receiving yards. Seems pretty easy to me!
Jaleel McLaughlin: The Broncos undrafted rookie RB was virtually unknown entering Week 5, unless you read last week’s article, yet is the only player with three game-first touchdowns this season. His odds to score first shrank dramatically from the first two times he cashed for us (+6000 in Week 2 and +4000 in Week 4), but was still a healthy +1100 this week against the Jets. His workload has increased since Javonte Williams suffered a quad injury and I wouldn’t expect it to be impacted too much whenever Williams returns based on how effective McLaughlin’s been.
Foes
The Eagles: Philly is 3-for-5 so far in the FTD market but have shown no trends we can follow. They’ve scored their first touchdown with five different players, all who play different positions. What are we supposed to do with that?!
The Patriots: I haven’t been betting on them here, but I just have to mention them because of how sad and pathetic they are. I am from Massachusetts and thus a Pats fan. Yes, we had a great 20-year run and I shouldn’t complain. But, is it so wrong to want more wins? This team disgusts me and should be faded in this market every time. They’re 1-for-5 so far and haven’t scored a touchdown AT ALL in two straight games. Clean house, Bob!
Here’s all of Week 6’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Broncos (60%) at Chiefs (80%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Ravens (100%) vs Titans (20%) – Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (London)
Commanders (40%) at Falcons (40%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
49ers (100%) at Browns (50%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Saints (80%) at Texans (40%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Panthers (40%) at Dolphins (60%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Seahawks (50%) at Bengals (40%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Colts (40%) at Jaguars (60%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Vikings (40%) at Bears (40%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Patriots (20%) at Raiders (80%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Lions (80%) at Buccaneers (25%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Cardinals (40%) at Rams (40%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Eagles (60%) at Jets (0%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Giants (0%) at Bills (60%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Cowboys (60%) at Chargers (100%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
These are the games that stand out to me as the most bettable:
Ravens (100%) vs Titans (20%) – Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (London)
As I mentioned above, Baltimore’s run game is the way to go here. With Justice Hill scoring last week, Since they don’t often repeat players in back-to-back weeks, I’ll move off of him and go with Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson.
49ers (100%) at Browns (50%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
The Niners are undefeated in essentially every way this season, including the FTD market. The only problem for us is, they seem to have too many elite weapons, it makes it hard to choose. That said, there are no odds too short for me to recommend staying away from Christian McCaffrey. He’s going to be under +400 at any book, he’s already cashed two FTD tickets this season, we have to keep him on our bet slip. I’ll go with him and Deebo Samuel who hasn’t cracked my first touchdown tracker yet.
Patriots (20%) at Raiders (80%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Do. Not. Bet. A. Patriot. I believe full tank-mode has begun in New England and scoring touchdowns is not typically part of that plan. I’ll ride with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers who have all four of the Raiders’ first touchdowns this year.
Giants (0%) at Bills (60%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
In the words of Destiny’s Child, “Can You Pay My Bills?”, and the answer is yes if you are Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis. Four of their five team-first touchdowns have come from them, three of which were the first of the game. I know they’re coming back from a long trip to London, but thankfully, they’re playing one of the worst FTD teams in the G-Men. I’ll be on the Buffalo WRs yet again.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
