NFL Hall of Fame Game Betting History and Trends:
While no one complains that football is back with the Hall of Fame Game each summer, no one ever compares it to the Super Bowl or even the regular-season kickoff. Still, the arrival of the contest each year always brings some crazy betting enthusiasm. It represents the official return of NFL football, regardless of how meaningless the results are or how unprofessional the effort may seem at times throughout the exhibition. This year’s matchup brings perhaps less intrigue than recent years’, as it pits the team expected to be the worst in football by win-total prop standards against one that won its division, albeit with an 8-9 record. As the saying goes, every team’s slate is cleared, and each training camp brings fresh optimism.
As much as bettors don’t openly brag about it, most of us are excited about Thursday’s game that kicks off the NFL preseason, and most of us will bet it. With that spirit in mind, why not make your best effort to win that wager, aided by some historical game info that might tip the scales as to who wins and covers, the Cardinals or the Panthers, or which way the total winds up.
You’ll see a chart below that details the results of the Hall-of-Fame Games played since the year 2000, complete with betting lines and totals. Note that the 2020 game was canceled due to COVID-19, the 2016 game wasn’t played due to poor field conditions, and the 2011 matchup was also missed because of a lockout. Also, keep in mind that these games are played at Canton, OH, on a neutral field, which is why the average favorite lines are small. Plus, in most cases, the teams’ representative starters typically don’t play at all, or play no more than a single offensive series, resulting in lower totals. If you’re new to betting this game, keep those thoughts at the forefront.
Oddsmakers have Carolina sitting as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 36.5 for the contest as of Monday afternoon. The point spread is a very typical number for this game. However, the total is very unusual, as after a rather high-scoring preseason in 2025, Thursday’s game now sits with the highest posted total since 2012, at 36.5. We’ll see what happens with that as bettors dig into it a little more. I have some trends you might find useful below regarding both the line and total.
Interestingly, over the last 26 years, the Panthers have not had the opportunity to play in this game, so bettors could find some unfamiliarity to serve as motivation. Meanwhile, Arizona played in this game in both 2012 and 2017, losing each time while going 0-1-1 ATS. Yes, the Cardinals (+2.5) were in on the last high-totaled game of 37 that day, and lost 17-10 to New Orleans on a total of 37.
Below the chart you’ll find some of my own observations regarding the overall results and the betting implications. If you’re interested in my annual NFL Preseason Betting Strategies piece, don’t fret; that will be out next week before the full Week 1 kickoffs next Thursday.
VIEW NFL HALL OF FAME GAME HISTORICAL BETTING TRENDS CHART HERE
Betting Trends/Observations
– Last year’s upset win by the Chargers over the Texans extended a strong run by UNDERDOGS in this game. Dating back to 2013, they are on a 7-4 SU and 8-2-1 ATS surge, including winning the last five outright. Food for thought for potential Arizona backers. Keep in mind that prior to that, favorites had been on a 6-1-2 ATS run, so the tide has clearly shifted, as I believe a lot of bettors make the inaccurate assumption now that those setting the odds are in the know about which team will come to play, and perhaps it is simply the disrespect of being characterized as the underdog in a meaningless game that drives these teams.
– The team that has led the HOF game at halftime has gone just 3-4-1 over the last six contests. In a game where starters only play a series or two, if any, depth is as important as any other factor, particularly at the quarterback position. Games can turn quickly in the second half if the leading team’s third unit is of lesser quality.
– This is a game that is usually assumed to be an Under wager, despite the extremely low total. That said, Overs have been the winning totals wager in four straight years, following up a nine-game stretch in which Under was 7-2. It must be noted, however, that in the most recent seven games with totals posted of 34 or higher, Under is on a 6-1 run!
– In the eight HOF games since 2015 in which the line has moved off the opening number, it has gone towards the favorite all eight times. That team is just 2-5-1 ATS in that span. Furthermore, the HOF game seems to be becoming a game in which the books take from the bettors, as those following line moves would be just 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 opportunities. For the record, DraftKings had Carolina as a 1.5-point favorite out of the gate, so the current line hasn’t moved. Thus, if this trend of line movement intrigues you, I would perhaps wait until closer to game time to follow the latest moves.
– Bettors have not been sharp lately when moving totals in HOF games either, going 3-6 in the last nine times the total moved prior to kickoff. However, they did win last year’s game. The 2026 total sits at a stable 36.5 currently with no moves on record.
Steve’s thoughts on 2026 game: Adam Burke does a solid job previewing this game in a separate article on VSiN. In general, I tend to look at this game differently than the rest of the preseason. In my assessment, you have to really search for reasons to take a favorite, and in the rest of the preseason, many times the reasons simply come out of the enormity of the point spread. This line seems like a guess formulated in the thought that Arizona is the expected worst team in football this season, so there’s no way they could be favored here. However, dogs have proven to be a fantastic bet in this particular game, and to be quite honest, I prefer the Cardinals backup QB (Gardner Minshew) over the Panthers backup (Kenny Pickett). And from all camp reports, 3rd-string rookie Carson Beck has looked phenomenal too. I also like the fact that Arizona’s new head coach Mike LaFleur takes the sideline for the first time. New coaches, particularly rookie coaches, often speak of getting off to a good start and setting a winning culture, regardless of the stakes of the game. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Cardinals a little more invested in the contest than the Panthers.
If you’re interested in how each of these franchises looks at the preseason, consider that Arizona has sandwiched 2-1 seasons of 2023 and 2025 around a 0-3 result in 2024. They are 7-2 Under the total in that stretch. Carolina has won just one of its last eight preseason games, both SU and ATS. Scoring points has been a major problem, as the Panthers have only put up 11.7 PPG in those nine outings. Do you see a breakout coming here? If not, Arizona might be the statistical preference as well.
By the way, you can find my full ratings projections for Thursday and the rest of the NFL exhibition season on the VSiN Makinen Weekly Ratings page.
