NFL Odds Week 4
There was a lot of drama in Week 3, as we had some very close games and some thrilling finales. In fact, the only real blowouts we had were Patriots vs. Jaguars and Falcons vs. Packers. Even the Chiefs and Dolphins game had moments of being close and respectable. While public bettors did really well in the prop markets with a lot of star player Overs and anytime touchdowns, it wasn’t the greatest of betting days with sides and totals for most folks.
With the 17-game schedule, we can’t really call Week 4 the quarter pole, but we’ve got another round of games to think about and three games worth of data to use to make our assessments. Everybody is in action, as we’ll see bye weeks beginning in Week 5, and we have Colts vs. Commanders in London to go along with another Falcons game in primetime!
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 4 NFL Odds Report:
Steelers (-2.5, 37.5) at Browns
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Just as we all expected, the Browns are tied for first place three weeks into the season. It is wild to think about how they’ve won two games in a row after how bad they looked against the Jaguars in Week 1, but here we are. They’re still a home underdog to Aaron Rodgers and the visiting Steelers on Thursday night in the Week 4 lid lifter, but not as much of one as they were expected to be, since the lookahead line was pretty much 3 with varying juice. There does seem to be a difference of market opinion on the total, with some shops at 38.5 and some at 37.5 as of Sunday night.
Colts (-3, 46.5) vs. Commanders (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
To Tottenham Hotspur Stadium we go for this one, the first of three games to be played in London. The Jaguars will be part of the next two, with one at Tottenham and one at Wembley. The Colts and Commanders both played overseas last season, as Washington was part of the first NFL game in Spain and Indy was victorious in Germany in overtime. Even without Jayden Daniels, the Commanders were winners against the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks, a victory that moved this line from 4.5 to 3.5 at DraftKings and down to 3 at other shops. Even though Indy outlasted Houston 19-17, Washington’s win got a lot more juice.
Patriots at Bills (-6.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Mike Vrabel said after the Patriots’ lopsided loss to the Jaguars that he had a lot of areas of concern with his football team and you know that Drake Maye is one of them. The Bills pulled out a miracle cover against the Chargers, who seem to be hated by every witch doctor around the world. It wasn’t a clean performance from Buffalo by any means, and they looked even worse in the hideous gray jerseys, but they won and covered and New England looked awful against a good team again. This line was as high as 7 on Sunday night, with some 6.5s out there following a lookahead line of 5.5.
Cardinals at Giants (-1, 43)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
An early kick for the Redbirds here at the Meadowlands. Jameis Winston paid homage to Jaxson Dart after the win over the Titans by noting that 6×2 is 12, as he apparently couldn’t figure out 3×4 since the Giants only managed a quartet of field goals in their 12-7 victory. Arizona found the backdoor and dropped a 30 burger on the Niners, so you can understand why they got a bit of a boost from where this lookahead line was situated at 2.5. Initially, the Giants were -2.5 and -115 at DraftKings, so we’ve definitely seen a meaningful adjustment here, with Circa and others as low as -1 as of Sunday night.
Cowboys at Texans (-2.5, 48)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
This is the game sounding the loudest alarm bells for me. If Brian Schottenheimer had any clue about clock management, perhaps we’re looking at this game in a different light. He called timeout to kick a game-tying field goal with 14 seconds left instead of letting the clock run down. Then he kicked it to the end zone so no time came off the clock. Thirty-two of these jobs and most of these guys are stooges in late-game situations. In any event, had Dallas beaten Baltimore in Brazil, this line probably looks different. The lookahead number was -3, and it is obviously a long trip back from Rio. That said, the Texans are 0-3 (again) and will try to become the third version of themselves to start 0-3 and make the playoffs. Maybe both teams will find a way to lose.
Jaguars at Bengals (-2.5, 50.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Sometimes you see a bunch of word salad and numbers vomit with trends and stats and notes and nuggets on Sundays on social media that just don’t mean anything at all. Then sometimes, you see notes like this:
Mind-blowing number. Simply unreal. We’ll see if Joe Burrow gets himself into that situation here against the Jaguars in a game expected to be rather tight. Cincy was -3 in the lookahead markets after getting off to a strong 2-0 start, but their loss coupled with Jacksonville’s dominant performance against the Pats caused an adjustment in this number. Personally, I don’t think it’s enough of one. I was against the Bengals last week with the Steelers and my initial opinion is to back the Jags here before they head to their second home for two weeks.
Packers (-3, 41.5) at Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
This game suddenly looks a lot different. The Packers were pathetic against the Falcons last Thursday night, but Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb on the final offensive play against the Vikings. To be honest, I’m surprised to see a number on this game as of Sunday night, but we can reasonably assume Mayfield is out. We’ll see for how long. Circa had 3.5 on this one. Right now, it’s about a 4.5-point adjustment, as the Packers were -1.5 before the ghastly performance against the Falcons and then the lookahead number was Bucs -1.5. Once we get further confirmation on Mayfield, I assume we’ll see another adjustment with Jalon Daniels set to start.
Titans at Ravens (-10.5, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
As somebody who would not be characterized as a “glass half-full” sort of person, I really wanted to believe in the Titans this season. And, to some degree, I did. And they’ve been, as they might be described this week in London, as shite. They stink. This line more than confirms it, as the Ravens do look not impenetrable, but this is an easy double-digit number that was 10.5 on the lookahead landscape. I’ll be honest, this doesn’t seem high enough either.
Dolphins at Vikings (-10, 41)
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET (FOX)
Good luck to the crew tasked with covering this one. The Dolphins will be without De’Von Achane for a while, so their most exciting player is sidelined and the Dolphins are looking for a reverse 1972 Dolphins by going 0-for. Where there’s a will, there’s a way and Miami seems well on their way to giving this more than the old college try. Minnesota should be able to roll to 4-0 and we’ll see a lot of Survivor plays on the Vikings here. DraftKings was at 10.5 on this game, while Circa was holding at 10. Remember, the Dolphins took money last week against the Chiefs. They didn’t cover.
Broncos at 49ers (-3, 45.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Damn that electrical substation for putting a helmet into Mike Evans’ ribs. Crazy how the substation keeps injuring 49ers players. Anyway, Levi’s Stadium hosts this one and the 49ers are looking to extend their perfect season out to 4-0. We saw Denver with a game effort after falling behind significantly in the first half to the Rams in what was really a tale of two halves. Still, Sean Payton’s team seems to be lacking something and people have gotten impatient with Bo Nix already. This line was 3.5 and then 4.5 and then 3.5 and then what you see now as we’ve had quite a bit of movement over the life cycle of this line that opened on Tuesday at DK.
Chiefs (-4.5, 47) at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
How about the Raiders?! 3-0 for the first time since the 2021 season. I’ll be honest, I expected it to be way longer than that. Two of those wins were in overtime that year. I’ll be curious to see what the narrative is about Vegas this week. The Dolphins are terrible. The Chargers evidently stink. And the Raiders were outgained, but +3 in turnovers, in their win over the Saints. I’m guessing that a lot of people are going to view this week as a “reality check” for the Black & Silver. The lookahead number here was 6. DraftKings was still protecting the Chiefs at 5.5 as of Sunday night, while the rest of the odds screen showed 4.5.
Chargers at Seahawks (-6.5, 44)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Speaking of the Chargers, let’s see where this number goes. Justin Herbert is understandably distracted by Madison Beer and LA is just a bad team in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Seattle failed as a touchdown favorite traveling cross-country, but the offense looked fine with Sam Darnold back to running the show. I think we’ll see a “circle the wagons” sentiment permeate the market here with Seattle, expecting a bounce back effort against a Chargers team that looks hapless and hopeless already.
Lions (-3, 50) at Panthers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Big cats come together in Charlotte here with the Lions and Panthers in the Sunday Night Football spotlight. The Panthers lost to the Browns and the Lions played a one-score game with the Jets that fell on the number, so we see Detroit at -3 flat instead of the -3 even money that was dotted across most of the lookahead market. Carolina lost two starting corners and a starting offensive lineman in that loss to Cleveland. Perhaps that will dictate where this line goes, as Detroit is not the type of team you want to be missing secondary pieces against.
Falcons at Saints (-3, 47.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This line was 2.5 with heavy juice or 3 with reduced juice in the marketplace on Sunday night. The Falcons are on extra rest and looked like a real football team with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm in the primetime Thursday night spotlight. Meanwhile, the Saints let another winnable game slip away, the same thing that they did in Week 1. We know they’re a talented team. Hell, they beat the Ravens in Week 2. But, they are inconsistent as all get out and that seems concerning given that Atlanta woke up thanks to Penix. We’ll see if the rousing speech from Kevin “MLK” Stefanski helps the momentum carry over.
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