NFL Playoff Divisional Round Early Best Bets
And then there were eight! The award for worst weekend goes to the NFC East, who were on the wrong end of two of the three upsets this weekend. While the ever-turning coaching carousel has not hit that division yet, this will be an interesting week in Dallas and Philadelphia with both coaches on the hot seat.
The bets did well last weekend, with the Tuesday article going 2-0 and the Friday article finishing at 3-2 with a plus money winner. We beat the line in every bet, especially on the prop side. I cannot stress this enough, if you are playing props to the over, bet them early! Flacco’s passing yard total was 268.5 when I wrote about it. By kickoff, it was juiced to the Over at 274.5. Overs will almost universally go up and/or be the juiced side. If you like a prop Over, bet right away. If you like an Under, wait until just before kickoff.
Let’s jump into this week’s early divisional round best bets:
The Packers have officially entered the chat as a great Over team. They can move the ball through the air and on the ground on offense and are a bottom-10 defensive team. I have been banging the drum for weeks that the 49ers are in a similar situation. The defense that had been known for dominance is middling this year when playing elite offensive teams. In the last eight games, the Packers are 7-1 to the over and the 49ers are 5-3.
Weather should not be an issue in San Francisco, and points should be plentiful. I bet this at the open on Sunday night. The line moved to 50.5 quickly but has not dropped down to 49.5 once again. I expect this to close closer to 51 when it is all said and done so jump in now. Both 51 and 52 are key numbers when playing totals, so you want to get an Over in underneath both. The Packers are also live in this game, but I like the total more.
The Bet: Packers / 49ers o49.5
This is going to be a fun one! Two of the best teams in the AFC bang heads, but it’s in Buffalo this time. Amazingly, this will be Mahomes’ first road playoff game of his career! As I write this, the Buffalo -2.5 is juiced to -118. If that ever gets to 3 -110 on the Chiefs, I will be diving in. There is no way this should be a full field goal.
The total is what we are going to key on here. This isn’t the Bills/Chiefs teams that featured the 13-second field goal drive. Both of these teams have been playing very good defense, and it will make points tough to come by. Offensively, running the ball has also become a priority for both, so expect the clock to continue running for much of the game. The Chiefs have gone Under in four straight and five of the last six. When these two played at Arrowhead earlier this year, they combined for 37 points. Let’s get on the Under before it moves.
The Bet: Chiefs / Bills u46.5