NFL post-bye week systems and team trends
Two weeks ago, we published the first of a two-part series analyzing trends and systems surrounding the bye week in the NFL. That piece dealt with the PRE-BYE WEEK data. In this follow-up piece, I will be dealing with the POST-BYE WEEK analysis.
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This week presents the first opportunity to wager on teams coming out of a bye week. There were four teams off last week: the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers. You’ll want to look at the team trends for those four before this weekend’s games and then hang on to this piece for future reference. Of course, we will be continuing to cover these trends as well as everything else we track in our NFL Analytics Reports on a weekly basis.
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So far our pre-bye week systems have been performing reliably, particularly those dealing with teams going into their bye weeks against divisional opponents and those playing as home dogs. Why wouldn’t they perform reliably? The bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference of one or two wins.
Clearly the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. Since the NFL moved to a 17-game regular-season schedule before in 2021, the bye weeks have generally been pushed to later in the season, thus making it perhaps even more important. So let’s get to the data, first a group of league-wide systems and second team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2023.
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week. (Record: 103-42 SU and 88-55-2 ATS since ’99, 61.5%, +27.5 Units, 19.0% R.O.I., Grade 67)
2023 plays: Potentially on 10/22 Green Bay? 10/22 Pittsburgh? 10/29 N.Y. Jets? 11/12 San Francisco? 11/26 New Orleans? 12/10 Minnesota? 12/17 Washington?
Post-bye week ROAD FAVORITE subsystems:
– vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 31-13-1 ATS since ’00, 70.5%, +16.7 Units, 37.1% R.O.I., Grade 68) 10/22 Green Bay? 10/22 Pittsburgh? 10/29 N.Y. Jets? 11/12 San Francisco? 12/10 Minnesota?
– vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-15 ATS since ’02, 68.1%, +15.5 Units, 33% R.O.I., Grade 70) 11/26 New Orleans?
Post-bye week system #2:
Play AGAINST home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 18-14 SU and 21-8-1 ATS since ’15, 72.4%, +12.2 Units, 40.7% R.O.I., Grade 72)
2023 plays: AGAINST 10/15 Cleveland, 10/16 L.A. Chargers, 10/29 Carolina, 10/29 Tennessee, 11/12 Jacksonville, 11/20 Kansas City, 11/26 Indianapolis, 12/10 Baltimore, 12/10 Las Vegas
Post-bye week system #3
Play AGAINST HOME UNDERDOGS coming out of their bye week. (Record: 35-12 SU & 29-17-1 ATS since ’99, 63%, +10.3 Units, 21.9% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2023 plays: Potentially Against 10/15 Cleveland? 10/15 Tampa Bay? 11/26 Atlanta? 11/26 Indianapolis? 11/12 Jacksonville? 12/10 Chicago? 12/10 Las Vegas? 12/17 Arizona?
Post-bye week system #4:
Play OVER the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 25-16-1 since ’10, 60.9%, +7.4 Units, 17.6% R.O.I., Grade 59)
2023 Potential Plays: OVER in 10/22 GB-DEN, 10/22 PIT-LAR, 10/29 CAR-HOU, 10/29 NYJ-NYG, 10/29 TEN-ATL, 11/26 IND-TB, 11/26 NE-NYG, 12/10 BAL-LAR, 12/17 ARI-SF, 12/17 WAS-LAR
Post-bye week system #5:
Play AGAINST DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES coming off their bye week. (Record: 17-7-1 ATS since ’14, 70.8%, +9.3 Units, 37.2% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2023 plays: Potentially AGAINST 10/29 Dallas? 11/19 Miami? 12/10 Baltimore?
Post-bye week system #6:
Play AGAINST ROAD TEAMS coming off their bye week and FACING a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 18-7 SU and ATS since ’19, 72%, +10.3 Units, 41.2% R.O.I., Grade 67)
2023 plays: AGAINST 11/13 Denver, 12/10 Buffalo, 12/17 Washington
Post-bye week system #7:
Play on TEAMS coming off their bye week and FACING THE CHARGERS. (Record: 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS since ’08, 92.9%, +11.9 Units, 85% R.O.I., Grade 65)
2023 plays: 11/12 Detroit
Post-bye week system #8:
Play AGAINST TEAMS coming off their bye week in a Monday night divisional game. (Record: 28-14 SU and 26-15-1 ATS since ’92, 63.4%, +9.5 Units, 22.6% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2023 plays: NONE
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye-week games from the regular-season schedule, not playoffs.
ARIZONA Post-Bye Week Game: 12/17 SAN FRANCISCO
· Arizona has gone 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in its last five post-bye week home games
· The Cardinals are on a 6-2 UNDER the total surge in post-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
ATLANTA Post-Bye Week Game: 11/26 NEW ORLEANS
· Atlanta is on a 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS run in its last 19 post-bye week games
· The Falcons have gone UNDER the total in their last four post-bye week divisional games
BALTIMORE Post-Bye Week Game: 12/10 L.A. RAMS
· Baltimore has lost three straight post-bye week games ATS after a 9-3 ATS run prior
· The Ravens are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their previous seven post-bye week games vs. NFC foes
BUFFALO Post-Bye Week Game: 12/10 at Kansas City
· Buffalo is on a 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games and is 19-10-2 ATS dating back to ’93
· The Bills are on a 6-3-1 ATS run in post-bye week road games
CAROLINA Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 HOUSTON
· Carolina has gone just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine post-bye week home games, including three ATS losses in a row
· The last nine Panthers post-bye week games went OVER the total
CHICAGO Post-Bye Week Game: 12/10 DETROIT
· Chicago has lost its last nine post-bye week games SU and is 1-8 ATS, getting outscored by 12.8 PPG
· The Bears are on a 6-1 OVER the total surge in post-bye week games
CINCINNATI Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at San Francisco
· The Bengals are 1-4-1SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six post-bye week games vs. NFC opponents
· Cincinnati has gone 9-5 OVER the total in its last 14 post-bye week road games
CLEVELAND Post-Bye Week Game: 10/15 SAN FRANCISCO
· Cleveland is 4-8 SU and 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 post-bye week games
DALLAS Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 L.A. RAMS
· Dallas is on a 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS run in post-bye week games
· The Cowboys are 15-3 OVER the total in post-bye week games since ’05
DENVER Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/13 at Buffalo
· Denver has gone 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS in post-bye week games since ’00
· The Broncos are on an 11-4 UNDER the total surge in post-bye week games
DETROIT Post-Bye Week Game: 11/12 at L.A. Chargers
· Detroit is 7-3-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012!
· The Lions have gone 15-4 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since ’04
GREEN BAY Post-Bye Week Game: 10/22 at Denver
· Green Bay is 8-1 UNDER the total in its last nine post-bye week road games
· The Packers are 12-4 UNDER the total in post-bye week games dating back to ’07
HOUSTON Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at Carolina
· Houston has gone 4-1 UNDER the total in its last five post-bye week road games
INDIANAPOLIS Post-Bye Week Game: 11/26 TAMPA BAY
· Indianapolis has gone 14-4 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 post-bye week games overall
· The Colts are 11-4-1 OVER the total in their last 16 post-bye week home games
JACKSONVILLE Post-Bye Week Game: 11/12 SAN FRANCISCO
· Jacksonville is on a 9-4 ATS post-bye week run at home, including four straight ATS wins
· The Jaguars are 7-4 OVER the total in their last 11 post-bye week games
KANSAS CITY Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/20 PHILADELPHIA
· Head coach Andy Reid’s teams are 22-3 SU and 16-9 ATS in post-bye week games
· The Chiefs are 9-3-1 UNDER the total in their last 13 post-bye week games
L.A. CHARGERS Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/16 DALLAS
· The Chargers have gone UNDER the total in six of their last nine post-bye week games
· The Chargers are on a 5-2 ATS run in their last seven post-bye week games
L.A. RAMS Post-Bye Week Game: 11/19 SEATTLE
· The Rams are on an 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS run in their last 12 post-bye week games at home
· The Rams are on a 5-2 ATS run in post-bye week games vs. NFC West rivals
LAS VEGAS Post-Bye Week Game: 12/10 MINNESOTA
· The Raiders broke an 0-5 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week games last season in a win over Houston
· The Raiders are on an ugly 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in their last six post-bye week games vs. NFC foes, getting outscored by 15.7 PPG
MIAMI Post-Bye Week Game: 11/19 LAS VEGAS
· Miami is on a 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS surge in post-bye week games
· The Dolphins are 5-1 UNDER the total in their last six post-bye week games
MINNESOTA Post-Bye Week Game: 12/10 at Las Vegas
· For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 4-9 SU and ATS in their last 13
· The Vikings are on runs of 6-1 SU as well as 4-1 ATS in post-bye week games vs. AFC foes
NEW ENGLAND Post-Bye Week Game: 11/26 at N.Y. Giants
· The Patriots are on a 6-3 SU and ATS run in post-bye week games overall
· New England is on a 5-0 UNDER the total streak in post-bye week games
NEW ORLEANS Post-Bye Week Game: 11/26 at Atlanta
· Despite outright wins in the most recent three, New Orleans has lost four straight post-bye week games ATS
· The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four post-bye week games against Atlanta
N.Y. GIANTS Post-Bye Week Game: MON 12/11 GREEN BAY
· Since their last two-game post-bye week ATS winning streak in ’00 and ’01, the Giants are 7-14-1 ATS in such games
· The Giants have gone UNDER the total in their last four post-bye week games
N.Y. JETS Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 at N.Y. Giants
· Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in their last 14
· The Jets are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five post-bye week games versus NFC foes
PHILADELPHIA Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/20 at Kansas City
· Philadelphia is 7-2 UNDER the total in its last nine post-bye week road games
· Philadelphia is 6-2 UNDER the total in its last eight post-bye week games vs. AFC foes
PITTSBURGH Post-Bye Week Game: 10/22 at L.A. Rams
· The Steelers are on a six-game post-bye week game winning streak, as well as a three-game ATS winning streak in such games
· Pittsburgh is 6-1 UNDER the total in its last seven post-bye week games vs. NFC opponents
SAN FRANCISCO Post-Bye Week Game: 11/12 at Jacksonville
· San Francisco is on a brutal 5-13-1 SU and 4-14-1 ATS run in its last 19 post-bye week games
· The 49ers are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven post-bye game games vs. AFC foes
SEATTLE Post-Bye Week Game: 10/15 at Cincinnati
· In post-bye week games, Seattle has lost its last three SU and ATS after a 6-1 run
· The Seahawks have played poorly in post-bye week non-conference games, 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS since ’92
TAMPA BAY Post-Bye Week Game: 10/15 DETROIT
· Tampa Bay has gone 3-0 UNDER the total in its last three post-bye week games at home
· The Buccaneers are on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in post-bye week home games
TENNESSEE Post-Bye Week Game: 10/29 ATLANTA
· The Titans have won seven straight post-bye week games while going 6-0-1 ATS
· Tennessee is 11-4 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 post-bye week home games
WASHINGTON Post-Bye Week Game: 12/17 at L.A. Rams
· Washington is just 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 post-bye week games
· The Redskins are on a 0-5 SU and ATS losing streak in post-bye week road games, getting outscored by 15.4 PPG
