Saturday NFL Divisional Round Sharp Report

27

4:30 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 53)

NFL Quick Links:
Super Bowl | Betting Splits | Odds | Picks | Matchups

 

The Jags (10-8) are the 4-seed and have won six straight games. Jacksonville just upset the Chargers in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-3) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Kansas City listed as high as a 9.5-point home favorite. Early in the week we saw this line fall from Chiefs -9.5 to -8.5, signaling some smart money grabbing the points with the road dog. But over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen some Kansas City buyback at -8.5, raising the line back up to Chiefs -9 or even -9.5 at home shops. Currently 54% of bets are laying the points with the Chiefs at home, signaling slight public support.

The Jaguars match several betting systems. Playoff dogs are 4-2 ATS this postseason and 40-25 ATS (62%) over the past five postseasons. It’s also been smart to bet against teams coming off a bye in the divisional round (59% ATS over the past 20 postseasons). The Jags are 8-5 ATS as a dog this season and Doug Pederson is 6-0 ATS as a dog in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is just 11-18 ATS (38%) as a favorite of 7-points or more over the past three seasons. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game as the total has ticked up from 52 to 53.

 

8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 48)

The Giants (10-7-1) are the 6-seed and just took down the Vikings 31-24 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (14-3) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public sees a close game and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with the Giants. However, despite New York receiving 68% of bets we’ve actually seen the line move further to the Eagles -7 to -7.5. Some shops are juicing up Eagles -7.5 to -115, signaling a possible further move up to -8. Philadelphia has value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game and also a "fade the trendy dog" system match. The Eagles are also in a prime teaser spot (-7.5 to -1.5), passing through multiple key numbers.

Pros are also leaning over, steaming the total up from 47 to 48. Currently 67% of bets and 73% of money are taking the over, indicating both Pro and Joe support. The Eagles are 10-7 to the over this season, including 6-3 to the over at home. The Giants are 3-1 to the over in their last four games.

 

 

Previous articleIntroducing the Circa College Hoops Challenge
Next articleTuley: NFL Sunday Best Bet, plus NBA pick
Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.