NFL Week 10 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
The struggle continued for me in the NFL last week, not surprisingly, since sportsbooks took a hammering too. Favorites dominated in Week 9. I took mostly dogs that the betting public was backing big. The reps at Circa Sportsbook and DraftKings called it “the worst week ever” or a “bloodbath.” The only saving grace was that 3-6 beats 1-7, my prior week’s performance. Hopefully, the season’s anomalies are behind us, however.
Hopefully you caught Bill Adee’s newsletter last week, where he shared the AI interpretation of the Week 9 NFL Analytics Report, because the computer’s favorite three bets from that all won. There are apparently three more plays for this week, which I will ask you to find on the VSiN Community Board. My plays for Week 10 are below as I unfortunately flirt with the .500 mark again (40-38-2 ATS) after a very hot start to the season. After pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, take a look at what I’ve come up with for the NFL weekend.
Thursday, November 12, 2026
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5)
To me, it’s inarguable that head coach John Harbaugh has his Giants team heading in the right direction, and I am pleased that they decided to stay the course with their core rather than disrupting things at the trade deadline this week. His team sits in first place in the NFC East comfortably and hosts a standalone primetime game on Thursday night. When was the last time you could say “first place” and “hosting a primetime game” about this franchise? I believe New York is going to be jacked for this game and don’t see the G-Men wasting this opportunity. The big injury news finds RB Cam Skattebo returning to the lineup, and in my opinion, he is the current heartbeat of this team and a symbol of the new culture. His return will be a boost against a Commanders team they tied a little over a month ago. That game was played relatively evenly, with New York holding a slight yardage edge.
I believe the home atmosphere will be the deciding factor in this one, and I don’t think oddsmakers are weighing it in enough. My current effective strength ratings show NYG about 2.4 points better overall, and adding what I figure will be at least a 2.5-point HFA today, it would mean they should be favored by closer to 5. The TNF home edge is bigger too as we get later in the season: In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 35-26 SU but 24-35-2 ATS (40.7%) in the last 61. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 49-32 SU and 46-32-3 ATS (59%). Washington is also 27-42 ATS (39.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019 & 22-36 ATS (37.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017. Meanwhile, NY Giants are 26-15 ATS.
NFL Best Bet: Give me NY Giants -2.5 to get it done at home on TNF
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New York Jets
Buffalo got the win on Monday night in Minneapolis, but it would be erroneous to say the Bills played great football. In fact, QB Josh Allen looked off, and they could run the ball very well either. Only Minnesota’s QB ineptitude made it easier than it should have been. The short week gives the Jets a nice advantage in this division-rivalry game. Hopefully you caught my article this week on rest in the NFL and how it has emerged recently as a major handicapping factor.
Among the angles backing the Jets here are these two: 1) Home teams benefit a touch more from having additional rest in the NFL, as they are 53-29 SU and 48-33 ATS (59.3%) dating back to Christmas 2024. 2) NFL teams playing with more rest than their same-conference opponent (divisional included) have been quite successful since Christmas 2024, going 75-52 SU and 78-49 ATS (61.4%). The quarterback ineptitude issue shouldn’t be a factor this week at all either, as the Jets’ QB Geno Smith is quietly having a pretty big season, as his team ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, and he should be getting WR Garrett Wilson back in the fold for this one. The fact that the Bills are among the league’s best offenses might not help, either, as road/Neutral teams scoring more than 31 PPG are just 39-48 SU and 32-54 ATS (37.2%) since 2020. The Bills have won five straight in this series, but those Jets teams were illegitimate offensively. This one isn’t.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go Jets +8.5 to be very competitive as the divisional home dog
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
I saw someone on X this week making the argument that because the Colts played reasonably well in their loss to Dallas last week, they should be able to handle a Miami team with its backup QB easily this week. On the surface, that sounds reasonable, but the historical numbers say otherwise: 1) Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 52-47 SU and 36-63 ATS (36.4%) since the start of the 2019 season. That is a pretty significant record for a 99-game NFL sample. Furthermore, NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 69-45 SU but 45-65-4 ATS (40.9%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
If anything, the fact that both of these teams have been downtrodden this season leads me far away from laying any points: In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 36-33 SU and 45-23-1 ATS (66.2%) since the start of the ’15 season. On top of that, teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 64-63-1 SU and 49-76-3 ATS (39.2%) since 2016. As a franchise, Miami is on a 39-22 SU and 37-23 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019 and still playing spirited football. Indy is on a 2-14 skid dating back to last year. Lay points with the Colts at your own risk.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Miami +3.5 against Indianapolis
Houston Texans (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
There were a few games this week that my first instinct when I saw the opening line was “that’s too many points.” I know Cleveland is being outscored by almost 4 PPG, but the 5-4 record has to count for something. Plus, I feel like this is a completely different team with QB Deshaun Watson in the lineup, and he is expected to return for this game. Playing at Cleveland in front of the Dawg Pound is always tough. When the Browns continue to give spirited and competitive efforts, it’s even tougher.
Adding to the motivation this week is the fact that the Browns are heading into their bye week: There are two separate systems backing them for that
situation: 1) Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 80-43-2 ATS since 2010, 65%, +32.7 Units, 26.6% ROI, Grade 68) And 2) Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 41-25-3 ATS since 2015, 62.1%, +13.5 Units, 20.5% ROI, Grade 64). As I indicated earlier though, to me, the number is the key thing for this game. My Power Rating (Hou -2.9), my Effective Strength Ratings (Hou -2.6), and my Bettors’ Ratings (Hou -2.5) all indicate this game is overpriced a touch. The betting public is all over the road favorite here too. That can’t be good.
Best Bet: I got Cleveland +4.5 to give Houston all it can handle on Sunday
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
It’s obvious that New Orleans is having trouble putting it together this season. Even in games like last week when the Saints won against Cleveland, it took them three quarters to figure it out finally, and then when they did, they still gave up a OT touchdown to lose the cover. This is not a team I trust right now in what has turned into a key NFC South battle. As it is, laying points in this rivalry has been tough: Underdogs are on an extended 11-13 SU and 17-6-1 ATS run in the Panthers-Saints NFC South rivalry. That doesn’t even touch on the fact that New Orleans is 27-51 ATS (34.6%) at home since 2017.
Head coach Kellen Moore’s team also faces the same predicament Indianapolis does: Teams playing with a point differential of 7 or worse on the season as home favorites are 64-63-1 SU and 49-76-3 ATS (39.2%) since 2016. Looking at the betting splits from DK, we also see that 83% of the handle and 77% of the bets are on the visiting Panthers. That shouldn’t be a concern since over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 76-53 ATS (58.9%) record for +17.7 units and a ROI of +13.7%! The cases are rare where bettors side this much with a road dog. There is a reason for it.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with Carolina +2.5 to at least threaten the upset at New Orleans
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
As much as adding QB Kirk Cousins should bolster the Vikings offense in the long run, will it happen this week, on short rest, against a Packers team that has put together some great efforts recently? Comparing these two offenses in their last games, to see the line for this week’s matchup at just GB -3 could be a gift. Packers’ QB Jordan Love is on fire and has led his team on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak currently.
The Packers also seem motivated by the fact that they handed Minnesota a Week 1 win despite dominating the first three quarters. Green Bay is 41-24 ATS (63.1%) at home and 27-18-1 ATS (60%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019. The short week for head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team will also come into play, as the Packers have the much-valued extra rest. Home teams playing as small favorites or underdogs (-3 to +10) have been tremendously competitive when they have more rest than their opponent in the NFL since Christmas 2024, going 22-18 SU and 29-11 ATS (72.5%). Also, NFL teams playing with more rest than an opponent coming off a Monday night loss have been fairly successful, going 77-68 SU and 79-62 ATS (56%) since September 2022.
Head coach Matt LaFleur’s team has climbed back into the NFC North race, and this is a big one before their bye week: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 59-29-1 ATS since 2013, 67%, +27.2 Units, 30.9% ROI, Grade 72). Green Bay is 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS in pre-bye week home games since 1999. Don’t overreact to the Cousins trade either, at least this week, because results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal: 33-61 SU and 38-55-1 ATS (40.9%).
NFL Best Bet: I’ll take the hottest team in the league laying a short number at home, GB -3
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
There are two rookie quarterbacks getting their first starts in very difficult situations this week, as both host powers of the NFC West, whose defenses are playing very well. Seattle has held four teams to 10 points or fewer this season, including two in the past three games. Now, most people reading this column regularly know that I don’t automatically fade rookie quarterbacks like Fernando Mendoza, but there are two specific reasons we should this week: 1) For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 110-173 SU and 122-150-11 ATS (44.8%) in that time span. 2) Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 27 games, going 27-137 SU and 67-93-4 ATS (41.9%).
Think of this from a foundational standpoint. In Weeks 10-15, teams’ modes of attack are pretty well known. There won’t be many surprises from Mendoza in his first start. There is a reason the Raiders are a heavy home dog. The fact that Las Vegas was blown out last week doesn’t help: Teams coming off a blowout loss (>= 20 points) have been bad bets as non-conference underdogs in the next contest, going 18-54-1 SU and 31-41-1 ATS (43.1%) since the start of the 2019 season. I hate to use the term “must-win” here for the Seahawks, but this is an important game as their schedule after the bye is treacherous. Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 34-8-1 SU and 29-13-1 ATS since 2009, 69%, +14.7 Units, 35% ROI, Grade 67). As it is, the Seahawks are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in pre-bye week games overall since 2011, and on winning streaks of 6 games SU and 7 games ATS in pre-bye week non-conference games, average scoring margin 27.7-12.2 in the six wins. With Las Vegas last in the NFL in rushing defense, QB Drew Lock and the Seahawks should have a well-balanced attack this week.
NFL Best Bet: Let’s go with Seattle (-6.5) to win this one by a TD or more
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s schedule this season has been rather imbalanced, as the Cardinals have played six road games and three home games. It’s probably good since they’ve been terrible at home, going 0-3 SU and ATS while getting outscored 106-44. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise since Arizona is 28-40 ATS (41.2%) at home since 2018. They are also just 15-26 ATS (36.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020. Of course, one of their road wins was a shocker, at the Rams, where they won 18-16 as 13.5-point dogs.
That will come into play this week in QB Carson Beck’s first start, as Arizona has been one of the league’s worst rematch teams, going 4-21 SU and 7-18 ATS in the last 25, including a brutal 4-14 SU and 3-15 ATS home stretch. At the same time, the Rams are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS in the last 18 rematches on the road, and they also qualify for this strong revenge angle: Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 49-17 SU and 41-25 ATS (62.1%) in the rematch contest. For what it’s worth, the Rams are also on 11-1 SU and ATS surge when visiting the Cardinals. Besides the Beck start, the revenge angle, and the Cardinals’ home ineptitude, another factor is that the Rams go into their bye week after this. Their post-bye-week schedule is brutally tough, which makes this a critical game. Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 81-7-1 SU & 58-29-2 ATS since 2002, 66.7%, +26.1 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 70).
NFL Best Bet: I got the Rams -9.5 to win this one handily
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
The Steelers and Bengals meet in an excellent Sunday night matchup with the AFC North lead hanging in the balance. It is a rematch of a late-September game the Steelers won at home. In looking at this one, I think it’s important to know how Pittsburgh won that first game. It was one of their better offensive games of the season to date, as they gained a balanced 411 yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play. For this one, they should be fully healthy as they come out of their bye week. That is big since the Steelers are on a nine-game post-bye week game-winning streak, as well as a six-game ATS winning streak in such games. They are also on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS surge in the last seven meetings with Cincinnati.
The extra rest will also help, as since Christmas 2024, NFL teams with more rest than their opponent have gone an impressive 103-73 SU and 102-73-1 ATS (58.3%). NFL teams playing with more rest than their opponent and riding a two-game winning streak have gone 94-46 SU and 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%) since January 2022. The Bengals have also won their last four in a row, and QB Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level, but the Steelers defense holds a big edge in both points and yards. Better D in a big game as an underdog. Sounds good to me.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Pittsburgh +3.5 at Cincinnati on Sunday night
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