Today the weekend wraps up with Week 4 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs and unders have been a smart bet. Dogs are 31-18 ATS (63 percent), with short road dogs 6 or less a blistering 14-3 ATS (82 percent). Meanwhile, unders are 29-20 (59 percent). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 12-2 (86 percent).
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For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 4 matchups today…
1 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
Both of these NFC non-division opponents are 1-2 to start the season. Washington (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) just got crushed by the Bills 43-21, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) just secured their first win of the season, beating the Giants 17-14 and winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But we've seen the Football Team flip from 1 to -1.5, signaling sharp "dog to favorite" line movement in their favor. Washington has value as a buy-low 0-3 ATS team who the public is down on. Road favorites off a loss against teams off a win are 78-54 ATS (59 percent) over the past decade. Also, teams coming off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 5-1 ATS this season and roughly 54 percent ATS the past decade. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 32-14 ATS (70 percent) to road teams historically.
4:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
This NFC West clash features a pair of undefeated teams looking to secure the top spot in the division. The Cardinals (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-19 win over the Jags, covering as 8-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) just dominated the Bucs 34-24, winning as 1-point home dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride the high-flying Rams at home laying a short number, especially after their big win over the Bucs. However, we've seen Los Angeles fall from -6 to -4. This signals notable wiseguy action buying low on the undefeated Cardinals plus the points. Short road dogs 6 or less are 14-3 ATS this season and 119-73 ATS (62 percent) over the last two seasons. Arizona also has value as a divisional dog (56 percent ATS over the past two seasons) and a dog with a line move in their favor (59 percent ATS over past two seasons). Shawh Hochuli, the lead ref, is 28-20 ATS (59 percent) to the road team.
4:25 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers
This non-conference matchup is one of the most lopsided games of Week 4. The Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) have dropped two straight after upsetting the Bills in Week 1, falling to the Bengals 24-10 last week and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Packers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have rebounded from a Week 1 loss to the Saints to win two straight, including an impressive 30-28 win over the 49ers last week, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with the red-hot Packers against the ice-cold Steelers.. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Packers fall from -7 to -6. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Pittsburgh in the ultimate buy-low spot. Dogs with line moves in their favor are 59 percent ATS over the past two seasons. Mike Tomlin has done well in his career as a dog, going 39-19 ATS (76 percent) when getting points with the Steelers. Scott Novak, the lead ref, is 41-28 ATS (60 percent) to the road team.
8:20 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
This Sunday Night Football showdown will break records for ticket counts as it marks Tom Brady's highly anticipated return to Foxboro and his first game against Bill Belichick since leaving the Pats. The Bucs (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Rams 34-24 and losing outright as 1-point road favorites. Similarly, the Patriots (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) are also coming off a disappointing loss in Week 3, losing to the Saints 28-13 as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to lay the points with Tampa Bay, steaming the Bucs up from -5.5 to -7. If you're late to the Bucs party and missed the early move, the Patriots have incredible value as a buy-low inflated primetime dog at 7. Roughly 95% of bets across the market are on Tampa, making them one of the most popular public plays in recent memory. The Patriots are one of the biggest contrarian plays we've seen in years.
More Sunday Moves
Jets 7.5 to 6 vs Titans
Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5 vs Colts
Panthers 4.5 to 4 at Cowboys
Giants 9.5 to 7 at Saints
Seahawks 3 to 2.5 at 49ers
