TNF Jaguars vs. Saints Week 7 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 7, that game features the New Orleans Saints hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. This is actually a very exciting matchup for a Thursday game, with both of these teams looking like they have the potential to make the postseason. But this is a big one for the Saints if that is going to happen, with New Orleans having lost three of its last four coming into this game. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Jaguars vs. Saints preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Jaguars vs. Saints
Date: Thursday, October 19
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)
Jaguars vs. Saints Spread
The Saints will be hoping to get back on track when they host the Jaguars and there are reasons to believe this game will go New Orleans’ way. Not only is Trevor Lawrence banged up for Jacksonville, but the Saints have the league’s seventh-best passing defense when it comes to DVOA. So, they’ll feel good about their ability to cover these Jaguars pass catchers. They also have the pass rushers required to make sure the Jags are never too comfortable in the pocket.
New Orleans is also trustworthy when it comes to stopping the run, with the team giving up 100 or fewer rushing yards in three of its six games this year. And the Saints haven’t given up more than 120 yards in any of them. That’s good news for the home team with Travis Etienne coming to town. He has rushed for four touchdowns over the last two weeks, but it’d be surprising if he gets it going here.
Offensively, things likely won’t come easy for New Orleans in this game. The Jaguars are currently eighth in the league in Defensive DVOA, and they have looked excellent in five of the six games they have played this season. And the Saints are extremely banged up along the offensive line. However, one thing I keep coming back to with New Orleans is that the team is due for some positive regression when it comes to red zone efficiency. The Saints have scored a touchdown on only 38.84% of their trips to that part of the field. Last season, New Orleans scored on 52.08% of its red zone trips, and that was with a worse quarterback situation. So, I do think the Saints will start cashing in soon, especially given the amount of talent they have at the skill positions. That’s not to say I’m expecting New Orleans to light it up here, but this team has been moving the ball down the field. And now it’s time for the group to punch it in two or three times, which should be enough in this game.
This is also the first true road game that Jacksonville has played since Week 1. The Jags did play two games in London, but those were neutral-field games in which the crowd leaned towards rooting Jacksonville. Things won’t be as comfortable at the Caesars Superdome, where the crowd can be as loud as any. Also, the Jaguars are just 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread in non-conference games under head coach Doug Pederson. I also thing fatigue could be an issue for Jacksonville here.
Jaguars vs. Saints Total
These are two of the top-10 defenses in the league according to DVOA, and both teams come into this one with quite a few injuries to deal with on the offensive side of the ball. When you combine that with the fact that neither team shies away from running the football, it’s hard not to like the Under in this one. Of course, this number is a lot lower than you’d want it to be, but it’s for a reason. And I always lean Under on Thursday nights, unless there’s a highly explosive offense on the field.
The Under has also hit in all six of the games that the Saints have played this year, which isn’t surprising considering they play good defense and haven’t been succeeding in the red zone. But overall, I’d be surprised if the Under streak is snapped here. The Under is actually 12-3 in the games that New Orleans has played with a line of +3 to -3 under head coach Dennis Allen. So, the games the Saints play that are expected to be close tend to be low-scoring affairs. On top of that, the Under is also 7-4 when the Jaguars are coming off an Over since Pederson became their head coach.
Jaguars vs. Saints Player Props
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Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
The Saints haven’t quite been able to get Kamara going as a runner just yet, as he’s averaging only 3.8 yards per carry through three games. But Kamara has had at least 30 yards receiving in two of his three games, so I like him to reach that mark here. Kamara is being targeted 8.3 times per game as a receiver out of the backfield, and I don’t see Carr looking away from him in this one. With the New Orleans offensive line banged up, I think Carr will have to get the ball out quickly. That should mean he’ll be dumping it off to Kamara and hoping the talented running back can rack up yards after the catch.
Jaguars vs. Saints Prediction
The Jaguars have turned things on in recent weeks, but they now face a Saints team that really needs this win. And I think Jacksonville will struggle a bit with New Orleans’ energy and physicality here, especially with the team having not played a true road game in nearly two months. This atmosphere could get to the Jaguars, and I think the Saints defense will show up in a big way in this spot. Keep an eye on Demario Davis, who gave a passionate speech to the locker room after last week. He can fly to the football and should play a big hand in slowing down the Jags running game.
Lean: Saints -3
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