Top NFL Survivor picks for Week 5


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NFL Survivor picks for Week 5

It goes without saying that every week is important in Survivor, but these are the weeks when things get really interesting. Bye weeks begin here in Week 5 and four teams are idle. None of the four teams are squads that you would be racing to back in Survivor, even if the opponent seemed like a good one to go against, but it does cut down on the card a little bit.

The bigger reason why these weeks mean a little more is that you’ve likely used some of the league’s elite teams already. Back in Week 1, I talked about the Contest Strategies article I wrote for our Updated NFL Betting Guide and I discussed the different mindsets between trying to go 18-0 or go 1-0 each week. Some of the league’s elites, like the 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys have had some good spots and have likely been selected.

It is not an easy task to try and pick 18 (or more, depending on your pool rules) of the league’s 32 teams. There are only so many top-tier teams and that means taking some lesser teams and hoping for the best. In some respects, that is part of the decision-making process here in Week 5.

As I’ve mentioned, I’m playing this thing out for real until I can’t anymore, at which point I’ll shuffle all 32 teams back into the hopper. Thus far, the picks have been the Commanders (Week 1), Bills (Week 2), Chiefs (Week 3), and 49ers (Week 4). I’m just playing the 18-week game here, since not every reader is part of the Circa or a similar contest.

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NFL Survivor Picks to Consider

Washington Commanders over Chicago Bears

A road game on a short week after what happened last week seems like a hellacious spot for the Bears. They blew a three-touchdown lead to the Broncos and lost at home 31-28. The Bears have lost a lot in recent seasons, but that one felt like rock bottom for the team. I’m not really sure how they pick themselves off the mat with one full day of practice and a lot of film study going into Thursday Night Football. I already took the Commanders, so they weren’t even a consideration for me, but they probably should be for you.

Sam Howell has actually looked good and the Commanders gave Eagles backers a major scare last week with a game-tying touchdown drive. If “Riverboat Ron” wasn’t a “Rontoon Boat” at this point and actually went for two, Washington may very well have won the game. As a team that has actual aspirations this season, I think the Commanders have a good chance at turning the page quicker than the Bears.

Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers

After a lot of back-and-forth, I made my decision and it was not an easy one to make. The Lions were not that decision, although I have multiple Circa Survivor entries left and will use one on each team. The Lions play the Bears twice and that was the deciding factor in holding them for later. 

Detroit also ranks third in yards per play allowed with 4.5, so it sure looks like all that attention paid to the defensive side of the ball is paying off. The Panthers defense has hung in there admirably, given the total lack of help from the offense, but the Seahawks moved the ball at will and that is the closest offense to what Detroit brings to the table. 

In three games with Bryce Young at QB, the Lions have mustered 281, 239, and 232 yards and 40 total points. That’s not going to get it done against the Lions. Detroit is also on extra rest and prep after playing on Thursday night in Week 4. I don’t even want to call the choices 1a and 1b this week, as that doesn’t properly illustrate how tight the margin is.

NFL Survivor Pick for Week 5

Miami Dolphins over New York Giants

It would be hard not to take the Dolphins after the tire fire in a dumpster that we saw from the Giants on Monday Night Football. Say what you will about Daniel Jones, and many have a lot to say, but it’s hard to play the quarterback position getting sacked 11 times. For all the good things that the Dolphins have done this season, generating sacks and pressure has not been one of them, but that could surely change this week. Hell, the Seahawks had five sacks in three games going into Week 4 MNF.

I don’t really have to talk much about the Dolphins offense, as we’ve all seen what it is capable of against teams not named the Bills. It will be hard for the Giants to keep up in this game and it is a short week with a lot to fix and it seems questionable as to whether or not Brian Daboll still has the pulse of the team.

Here’s the decision this week – take Miami now or take Miami next week. We know Tua Tagovailoa is healthy here, which isn’t always the case. The Dolphins have to be upset with last week’s embarrassment at the hands of the Bills, which was not only humbling, but a shot across the bow about getting better. Is this the right time to buy Miami?

Or do we wait until next week when they take on the Panthers? There will also be other times to take Miami. The game against New England in Week 8 seems good with Christian Gonzalez possibly out and the Patriots’ offense. Week 11 against the Raiders and Week 14 against the Titans also seem like viable candidates.

Then there are the Lions. This is a great week to take them, but so is Week 11 at home against Chicago. They also play at Chicago in Week 14 (though Goff outside in the cold is a thing) or Week 15 at home against Denver. They could also be a viable pick for Monday Night Football in Week 8 against the Raiders.

Personally, I think both teams win and advance. The question is which one you want to save for the future.

I decided to save the Lions and play the Dolphins when I know Tua is healthy. The Giants on a short week after how badly things went was also too much to overlook.