Week 6 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
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8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 49) at Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers (2-3) just fell to the Cardinals 24-23 last week, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Seahawks (3-2) just lost to the Giants 29-20, losing outright as 7-point home favorites.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as either a 3-point or 3.5-point road favorite, depending on which book you use as an opener. Regardless of the opening odds, the public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with San Francisco. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen the 49ers remain frozen at -3.5. This line has never risen up to -4. Furthermore, we’ve seen several shops fall back to 3 at times throughout the week and most shops are currently juicing up the Seahawks +3.5 (-115), signaling liability on the home dog plus the hook. Gameday movement will be something to monitor throughout the day. If we see this line fall to the key number of 3 that will be further evidence of smart money backing Seattle. On the other hand, if it rises up to -4 that will indicate late 49ers money showing up.
The Seahawks are offering notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 39% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 126-101 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2020. Divisional dogs are 215-183 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 24-16 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI this season. Dogs getting 3-points or less are 15-21 ATS (42%). When both teams are coming off a loss and it’s a divisional matchup, the dog is 67-44 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2020. Seattle also matches as a “dog who can score” (24.4 PPG, 11th), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering.
The total opened at 48 and was bet up to 49.5. That’s when we saw some buy-back on the under at an inflated price, dropping the total back down to 49 or even 48.5 at some shops. The public is split down the middle, with roughly 50% of bets and dollars on both side of the over/under. Primetime unders are 10-8 this season and 170-115 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders are 8-5 this season and 231-186 (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. When the total is 48.5 or more, the under is 8-3 (73%) this season and 29-11 (73%) over the past two seasons.
Player Prop to Consider
Geno Smith over 248.5 passing yards (-110): Smith has gone over this number in four straight games, passing for 327 yards against the Patriots, 289 yards against the Dolphins, 395 yards against the Lions and 284 yards last week against the Giants. He has gone over this number in six of his last nine home games. The Seahawks are a dog in a high total game, which means Seattle might be trailing and more inclined to pass the ball to keep pace or catch up.
