Tuley: Monday Night Football Best Bet, Contest Corner, NFL Week 13


Sunday was a roller-coaster ride in the Tuley’s Takes home office, highlighted of course by following my Best Bets on the NFL Week 12 schedule.
We ended up losing our stated Best Bet on the Texans +14 at the Dolphins, which we also used in VSiN’s BetsGiving handicapping contest along with Under 47 in the same game. The side looked like a horrible bet as the Dolphins dominated on both sides of the ball in building a 30-0 lead by halftime.
However, as we’ve written before, just like the NBA, in today’s NFL, “everybody makes a run.” In this case the Texans chipped away at the lead in the second half and actually pulled within two scores at 30-15 with 9 minutes to play in regulation. My problem was that if the Texans covered the 14-point spread, I would lose my Under play (and if the Dolphins scored again, I would have lost both). But the game ended up 30-15 and I split.
Despite the loss, my daily Best Bets are still 18-9 ATS (66.7%) the first 27 days of November, including 14-6 ATS (70%) the last 20 days.
I also lost top plays on the Bears +7 and Falcons +4.5 in the early games, though I did win my top 2-team, 6-point teaser play on the Panthers +8.5/Titans +7.5 from earlier in the week, as well as other teaser legs including the Eagles -1 and have a couple of live teasers to the Steelers +8.5 on Monday Night Football.
The holiday weekend was going to end up profitable no matter what (if we include our Thanksgiving Day wins on the LIons +10 and Giants +10 in spread-covering losses for both), but our main focus of Sunday ended up being our BetsGiving money-line play on the Raiders +170 (I also bet them +3.5 and was kicking myself for not using that as my side bet in the contest instead of the Texans).
There were many times that I felt doomed in regulation before the Raiders rallied to tie the game 28-28 just after the two-minute warning. Then, in overtime, the Raiders came up short on a 3rd-and-short and Daniel Carlson missed a 56-yard FG attempt, so I thought they were going to lose or end up in a tie.
However, after a three-and-out by the Seahawks, Josh Jacobs broke free on an 86-yard TD run to win the game 40-34 and put me into first place in BetsGiving heading into the Monday Night Football finale in which all 18 contestants have to pick 1 side and 1 prop. As I told the host of “The Greg Peterson Experience” on my regular 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night appearance, I still consider myself an underdog vs. the field as I have a target on my back with the 17 other contestants playing long-shot props to try to overtake me.
It’s going to be an interesting Monday at VSiN as BetsGiving picks aren’t due until kickoff of the Colts-Steelers game.
Let’s get to our daily recaps of all the Sunday betting action, then make my Best Bet for Monday (hmmm, including maybe a clue on my BetsGiving picks?) as well as my early NFL Week 13 picks.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Eagles beat Packers 40-33 on Sunday Night Football and covered as 6.5-point home favorites (flew way Over 46.5 points). On the day, faves went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS with 2 pick-’ems (DEN-CAR & CIN-TEN). Home teams went 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS. Unders dipped to 7-5 while primetime Overs went 2-0 in Week 11. Including Thanksgiving, faves lead 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS with 2 PKs on the weekend heading into Monday Night Football. The only outright upsets were by the Browns, Jaguars and Raiders. Home teams dominated at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS. Unders lead 8-7 despite primetime Overs going 2-0.


Top NFL Resources:

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 109-65-1 SU with 4 PKs, but dogs still lead 94-75-6 ATS (55.6%). Home teams lead 96-76-1 SU with 6 neutral-site games and took lead at 86-81-6 ATS (51.5%). Unders lead 100-77-2 (56.5%) and primetime Unders dipped to 19-16-1 (54.3%).

Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early games, faves went 3-2 SU and ATS w/ DEN-CAR and CIN-TEN both closing pick-’em (as short faves most of week, DEN lost and CIN won, so woulda been 1-1 anyway). The upsets were by the Browns (+3.5 in 23-17 OT win vs. Buccaneers) and Jaguars (+3 in 28-27 win vs. Ravens). Home teams went 6-1 SU and ATS. Unders 5-2. In afternoon games, faves went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS as Raiders (+4) upset Seahawks 40-34 in OT on Josh Jacobs’ 86-yard TD run. The Chargers (-2.5) beat Cardinals 25-24 on late 2-point conversion, but didn’t cover. Chiefs (-15.5) and 49ers (-9) did cover. Home/road teams split 2-2 SU with home teams leading 3-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 2-2.

CBB: No. 18 Alabama beat No. 1 North Carolina 103-101 in 4 overtimes at the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, but it was NOT an upset as Alabama closed and covered as 1.5-point favorite. No. 24 Purdue (+1.5) upset No. 8 Duke 75-56 in Phil Knight Legacy.

NBA: Faves went 6-3 SU and ATS with the upsets by the Heat (+3.5 in 106-98 win at Hawks), Clippers (+2 in 114-100 home win vs. Pacers) and 76ers (+1 in 133-103 win at Magic). Road teams led 5-4 SU & ATS; Overs 5-4.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 192-101 SU with 5 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 148-134-11 ATS (52.5%). Home teams still lead 183-115 SU and 149-138-11 ATS (51.9%). Overs’ slim lead improved slightly to 148-145-5 (50.5%) overall.

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Sunday with the lone upset by the Senators (+135 in 4-3 OT win at Kings). Roads teams also led 4-1. Overs went 4-1. On the season, faves lead 196-140 with 8 PKs. Home teams’ lead cut to 179-161 with 4 neutral-site games. Over/Unders back to .500 at 167-167-10.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor still has 71 live entries as the Dolphins, Jets, 49ers, Commanders and Chiefs all won straight-up Sunday to allow all 71 to advance out of the Thanksgiving/Week 12 gauntlet. Onto NFL Week 13 with the record $6.133 million prize pool on the line. 

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in NFL Week 12 (30-26-4, 53.6%, YTD). The wins were on the Jets -4.5 (No. 1 picks improved to 8-4) and Bengals -1.5. Losses were on the Seahawks -3.5, Titans +1.5 and Ravens -4 (No. 6 pick, Bucs -3.5, also lost).

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 1-4 in NFL Week 12 (33-26-1, 55.9%, YTD). The lone win was on the Bengals -1.5. Losses were on the Seahawks -3.5 (No. 1 picks dropped to 6-6), Titans +1.5, Chargers -3 and Falcons +4.5 (No. 6 pick Ravens -4 also lost).

Monday’s Best Bet

Steelers +8.5/Over 33 (2-team, 6-point teaser): As stated above, we have a couple of live teasers to the Steelers +8.5 from last week’s columns, but for those who didn’t bet those, we offer this same-game teaser along with the Over teased down from 39 to 33. We know neither offense has been spectacular this season and both will try to establish the run, however, both teams’ run defenses are strong enough to force the other teams to open up the passing game. In today’s NFL, it doesn’t take much to get Over a number like 33.

NFL Week 13 early Best Bets

Broncos +8 at Ravens

Colts +9.5 at Cowboys

Saints +6 at Buccaneers