Saturday NHL, CBB Best Bets; Friday Recaps
We’re finally officially in Super Bowl Weekend as we continue to track all the changing odds for Sunday’s Super Bowl LVII in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
As of late Friday/early Saturday here in Las Vegas, the Eagles are even more of a consensus 1.5-point favorite over the Chiefs as the South Point and Station Casinos moved back down from -2 to -1.5 on Friday night, leaving Treasure Island as the last Vegas book dealing Eagles -2.
If you’ve been following what we’ve been saying in these daily columns and on VSiN.com, you know that South Point sportsbook director pretty much predicted that earlier this week. We helped him post his “Inside the betting action” column on our website on Tuesday afternoon and he wrote “I suspect we’ll stay at 2 until the tourists come into town on Friday” and also “We might see this turn around. Once a line peaks, it tends to go back the other direction so we might go back down.” Hopefully readers that are with us on the Chiefs grabbed the +2 or teased them up to at least +8 (see my Super Bowl “takes” below).
We also hope you’re getting a lot of great info and advice from all of VSiN’s Super Bowl coverage, which also includes our shows from “Media Row” this week.
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The Over/Under continues its slow move upward as it’s still a consensus 51 at the majority of Vegas sportsbooks, though BetMGM and Resorts World are still on the low end at 50.5 while the Wynn and Treasure Island are up to 51.5.
As for my own plays heading into the weekend, I won Friday’s Best Bet on the Bucks +1 at the Clippers as they won 119-106 and covered all numbers after closing as 2-point road favorites. I lost my NHL First Period parlay as Penguins-Ducks 1P Over 1.5 hit but we lost on Coyotes-Blackhawks 1P Under 1.5 as that also went Over (I shoulda used Kraken-Rangers as that also flew Over).
Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s (full-game) action, and look for some more Best Bets on Saturday. Then, as has been our custom here, we’ll rerun our NFL “takes” column from last Wednesday with our early Super Bowl bets including some related props.
Friday Recaps
CBB: No. 13 Xavier was the lone Top 25 team in action on Friday night and was upset by Butler 69-67 as the Bulldogs were 7-point home underdogs and +250 on the money line (stayed Under the betting total of 145.5 points).
NBA: Faves went 7-4 SU but just 6-5 ATS with Rockets (+12) covering in 97-95 loss at the Heat. The upsets were by the Jazz (+8.5 at Raptors), Mavericks (+4.5 at Kings), Thunder (+2.5 at Blazers) and Suns (+2.5 at Pacers). Road teams went 6-5 SU but home teams led 6-5 ATS. Overs 7-4.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 540-293 SU with 11 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 420-392-21 ATS (51.7%). Home teams lead 501-343 SU and 434-391-19 ATS (52.6%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 425-405-14 (51.2%).
NHL: Faves went 3-0 Friday with Coyotes-Blackhawks closing pick-’em in the Hawks’ 4-3 OT win. Maple Leafs (-250 in 3-0 win at Blue Jackets), Rangers (-185 in 6-3 win vs. Kraken) and Penguins (-260 in 6-3 win at Ducks) all won as chalk and also covered -1.5 puck line. Home/road teams split 2-2. Overs led 3-1.
Saturday NHL Best Bet
Canucks-Red Wings 1P Over -175/Flames-Sabres 1P Over -165 (parlay payoff +152): We’re happy to be back on the Canucks. They’re the top 1P Over team in the NHL at 39-13 (75%) after four goals were scored in their First Period at the Islander on Thursday, even though they dipped to 26-2 with “score in first 10 minutes.” Still, we have to play them Over 1.5 as they’ve hit 5 straight and are 12-2 in their last 14 games. In this matchup with the Red Wings, the two teams combine for 65-37 (63.7%), but Flames-Sabres are even better at 66-35 (65.3%) as both teams rank in the Top 5.
Saturday CBB Best Bets
Portland +11.5 vs. No. 15 Saint Mary’s: Portland is a mediocre team, but this is an anti-swagger play against Saint Mary’s, which had its 12-game winning streak snapped Thursday night in a 78-74 road loss in OT at Loyola-Marymount. They stay on the road and we’ll fade them here as they should bounce back with a win but we’re counting on them to ground out the victory in single digits.
No. 18 Indiana +3 at Michigan: The Hoosiers (17-7) are still riding high after knocking off No. 1 Purdue last Saturday. Granted, that was at home, but we still think they should be favored over Michigan (14-10), so we’re calling for the minor upset.
Here’s the rerun of Wednesday’s column, with an update on our early Super Bowl Best Bet and more props:
Tuesday was mostly spent doing some chores around the Tuley’s Takes home office (including vacuuming out our pool after some recent inclement weather – though we didn’t have snow in our part of the Las Vegas valley) and following the Super Bowl line movement.
As we tweeted out Tuesday afternoon, the Wynn was the last Vegas sportsbook at Eagles -2 as they dropped into line with the rest of the books at -1.5 [Monday update: see my note below about the South Point moving back to Eagles -2 early Sunday] while the Over/Under remained at a consensus 49.5 points with Circa Sports and Resorts World the only books to go up to 50.
If you’ve been a regular reader of my columns this season (or the prior six years in our digital magazine “Point Spread Weekly”), you know that Wednesday is when I give my weekly NFL “takes” on the full schedule. I was planning to wait until next week to post our official Super Bowl Best Bet since we’re more than 11 days until Super Sunday, but I figure there’s no time like the present.
Besides, this is looking like it’s going to be the biggest betting game to this date in sports gambling history with such a great matchup, plus being the first Super Bowl in a U.S. state with legalized betting (Arizona) as well as being the first Super Bowl with legal betting in Ohio, Massachusetts and Kansas.
It’s also going to be the most over-analyzed game ever. I would rather go on record with my reasoning for my Super Bowl wagers or else I fear that if I wait until next week that it’ll sound like I’m copying other people’s analysis.
Frankly, there are only so many different ways you can handicap this game. The people on favored (at least for now) Philadelphia are going to say the Eagles have the better defense and best all-around team at this point, plus they’ll point out the injuries on the Kansas City side. After the opening Super Bowl LVII line settled at Eagles -2.5 on Sunday night, I made my regular weekly appearance on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” and gave Chiefs +8.5/Over 43.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser) as my early Super Bowl Best Bet. We repeated that in our Monday and Tuesday columns as well as in the VSiN daily email updates and on the website. With the line coming down, we also want to lock in our teaser play in case the line moves any lower or the Chiefs get bet to favoritism. I’ll also list some prop bets that are in line with my prediction of a close game. We’ll add more of our reasons for these plays, plus add others, as the prop market settles down, but I’m listing them in case readers want to shop around early.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 49.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Tuley’s Take: Before Sunday’s NFC and AFC championship games, most sportsbooks with advance Super Bowl lines had this matchup at pick-’em or the Chiefs -1. I’ve also had the Chiefs power-rated a few points ahead of the Eagles all season, so even though I understand the reasons for the Eagles being bet to favoritism on Sunday night, I side with those oddsmakers that opened the Chiefs as the chalk.
Now, I’m picking the Chiefs to win the game (leaning toward a predicted score of Chiefs 27, Eagles 24), but I’m very respectful of the Eagles on both sides of the ball and see this as a coin-flip game that could go either way. That’s why I feel the Best Bet is to make a 2-team, 6-point teaser on Chiefs +7.5/Over 43.5 as I fully expect this to be a one-score game either way.
Kansas City coach Andy Reid has a well-earned reputation (dating back to when he coached Philadelphia) of winning off a bye week, so we’re counting on that as well as the two-week gap to help the Chiefs get healthier (note: this didn’t work two years ago when the Chiefs were dominated 31-9 by the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV after two weeks to prepare).
A lot is being made of the Eagles having a big edge on defense as they ranked No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed per game while the Chiefs ranked No. 11. The Eagles also allowed 20.2 points per game, but their supporters point out that since giving up 33 points to the Packers in Week 12, they’ve allowed an average of fewer than 16 points in their last eight games and gave up just seven points in each of their NFC playoff routs of the Giants and 49ers.
But these aren’t the 1985-86 Bears (who posted back-to-back playoff shutouts of the Giants and Rams). The Eagles’ defensive stats have received a lot of luck from the schedule-makers and their playoff draw as they’ve faced a relatively weak schedule and weaker QBs down the stretch. Let’s look at the list: Titans with Ryan Tannehill, Giants with Daniel Jones, Bears with Justin Fields, Cowboys with Dak Prescott, Saints with Andy Dalton. Giants with Davis Webb, Giants again with Jones and 49ers with Brock Purdy/Josh Johnson/Christian McCaffrey.
Seriously, the only top offense they faced in that stretch with a healthy QB was the Cowboys in Week 16 and lost 40-34 while allowing 419 yards. They’re taking a big step up in class now as they face Patrick Mahomes and the league’s No. 1 offense.
As I said above, I’ve made my biggest bet on the teaser as I expect a close game. I’m going with the Over 43.5 as the second leg of the teaser as we also expect a shootout. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ No. 3 offense will also have their share of success. It also helps with the indoor fast track in Glendale, Ariz., plus the long TV timeouts to get in all those Super Bowl commercials helps the offenses set up big plays.
Best Bet: Chiefs +7.5/Over 43.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser), plus Chiefs +1.5 and +105 on the moneyline.
Thursday update: Bet teaser ASAP as Over/Under has continued to rise, so get Chiefs +7.5, Over 44.5 if you still can.
Monday update: South Point went to Eagles -2 on Sunday morning, so it might be a sign that Chiefs teasers might go a little higher.
Tuesday update: Treasure Island joined South Point at Eagles -2 to add more value if you can tease Chiefs to +8, though Over also rising to 51 at most books to take away some value there.
Saturday update: Those Eagles -2 lines disappeared on Friday night, but still acceptable to tease Chiefs up to +7.5.
Prop bets tied to my prediction of a close game
Game tied after 0-0 (following PATs) -110: In the recent era with Super Bowl points spreads relatively close to pick-’em, we love this prop as we just need to get tied during the whole game. It hasn’t cashed the last two years, but before that, it hit four Super Bowls in a row (LI through LIV) and is a still-profitable 5-3 the last eight years. It can happen as early as 3-3 in the 2019 game between the Patriots and Rams or as late as 28-28 in 2017 when the Patriots famously rallied to catch up with the Falcons with 57 seconds left in regulation. The Eagles and Chiefs are pretty evenly matched as the low point spread indicates (and some books opened the Chiefs as small faves, so this is the definition of a coin-flip game) and we expect this to be a close, back-and-forth game with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts both fully capable of matching scores at some point.
Largest lead Under 14.5 points -140: This is another prop tied to our prediction of a close, back-and-forth game. Since joining VSiN, I’ve gone 4-1 with this prop (and 6-2 the last eight years with the only losses being the Buccaneers’ 31-9 rout of the Chiefs two years ago and the Falcons’ infamous 28-3 lead vs. the Patriots six years ago). Again, we’re counting on Mahomes or Hurts to rally his team if falling behind by two scores. We’re not crazy about the increased juice, but we’re actually relieved as we feared that oddsmakers might lower the number to 13.5 with the spread so close to pick-’em.
Halftime Tie/Eagles Win 16-1 and Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win 18-1: This is basically a bet on there being a tie at halftime, again based around our prediction of this being a close, back-and-forth Super Bowl. Since we don’t see “Will the game be tied at halftime?” prop offered anywhere, we play this “Double Result” at the Westgate SuperBook and bet both the “Halftime Tie/Eagles Win” at 16-1 and “Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win” at 18-1 options. If the game is tied at intermission, we know we’re going to end up with a net profit of +750 if the Eagles win or +850 if the Chiefs win. [Update: I didn’t see “halftime tie” at any books when I posted this early last week, but DraftKings posted it at 11-1 and it was bet down to +950, which is still a better payout. As of Saturday afternoon, DraftKings had it at 10-1.] This has been a long-term profitable play as we cashed three years ago when the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl LIV was tied at 10-10 and the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX that was tied 14-14.
Shortest TD Under 1.5 -160: We used to get a nice, juicy plus price on this each year, but this has cashed for us eight of the last nine years and the oddsmakers have slowly made it a favorite. But it’s still worth playing as -160 is still cheap considering how often it comes in (plus we’re playing with house money). This can cash multiple ways: organically with a team moving the ball to the 1-yard line and punching it in or having a defensive pass interference call in the end zone place the ball at the 1-yard line. Note: it’s much more rare, but it also would cash if an offensive player falls on a fumble in the end zone for a 0-yard fumble recovery or if a defensive player were to score on a fumble recovery or interception in the opposing team’s end zone for a 0-yard score.
