Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets, Contest Corner, early NFL Week 15 picks


On the 8th day, he rested. Or at least he tried to. After being under the weather myself this past weekend, I was trying to catch up on some much-needed sleep on Monday, except my wife and I received the news that our son, Maddux, had strep throat and I spent half the day trying to get a prescription filled (I’ve already gone into more detail than anyone wants to hear, but suffice it to say the doctor’s office and pharmacy didn’t communicate the way they’re supposed to and I didn’t get any rest).
Anyway, we were hoping to feel better while watching Monday Night Football with our Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 teaser, but that was a losing proposition, too, as the Patriots beat the Cardinals 27-13 and we lost the +7.5. For more details on that, see my weekly “Monday Night Football” recap story at VSiN.com.
Despite the loss we’re still 28-17-1 ATS (62.2%) with our daily top play here in these columns since Oct. 27 and 29-14 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the season with our plays given out on our regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) since the start of November..
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action – including a peek in Contest Corner with updates on Circa Survivor, Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest – and make our Best Bets for Tuesday, then update our early NFL Week 15 plays that we discussed with Peterson on Sunday night.

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Monday Recaps

NFL: Patriots beat Cardinals 27-13 on Monday Night Football and covered as 2-point road favorites. The game stayed Under the betting total of 44 points. Favorites went 8-5 SU in Week 14, but underdogs still led 8-5 against the spread as the Texans (+17 in 27-23 loss at Cowboys), Jets (+10 in 20-12 loss at Bills) and Broncos (+9 in 34-28 loss vs. Chiefs) covered in losses. Home teams went 7-6 SU and ATS. Overs went 7-6, but primetime Unders led 2-1 in the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 130-72-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 108-90-6 ATS (54.5%). Home teams lead 111-89-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 101-95-6 ATS (51.5%). Home dogs went 3-2 ATS to improve to 43-31-4 ATS (58.1%). Double-digit dogs went 2-0 ATS to improve to 13-7 (65%). Unders lead 114-92-2 (55.3%) and primetime Unders improved to 24-18-1 (57.1%).

NBA: Faves went 5-2 SU Monday but only 4-3 ATS as Thunder (+8.5) covered in 121-114 loss at Mavericks. The upsets were by the Spurs (+9.5 in 112-111 win vs. Cavaliers) and Clippers (+4 in 113-93 win vs. Celtics). Home teams went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS. Overs led 4-3.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 264-137 SU with 7 pick-’ems, but dogs hold slim overall lead at 198-189-14 ATS (51.2%). Home teams lead 254-154 SU and 210-184-14 ATS (53.3%). In totals wagering, Overs retook lead at 202-201-5 (50.1%).

CBB: No. 15 Gonzaga beat Northern Illinois 88-67, but my alma mater easily covered as 32.5-point road underdog! No. 7 Texas beat Rice 87-81 and also didn’t cover as 24.5-point home favorite without suspended head coach Chris Beard.

NHL: Faves went 3-2 with Rangers-Devils closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Canadiens (+170 vs. Flames) and Blues (+100 vs. Predators). Home teams swept 6-0. Unders led 5-1. On the season, faves lead 264-177 with 11 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 233-215 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders retook 219-216-17 lead.

Contest Corner

CircaSurvivor is down to 30 live entries in the $6.133 million prize pool after 1 was eliminated on the Cardinals on Monday Night Football (1 survived and advanced with the Patriots) after 39 were eliminated earlier in NFL Week 14 with 11 on the Raiders on Thursday Night Football and 28 more on Sunday on the Seahawks (15), Titans (12) and Steelers (1).

Circa Sports Million has a new leader as Enut34-1 went 5-0 in NFL Week 14 to improve to 49-19-2 (72.1%), half a point ahead of KING BRUTUS-1 and SEAN 1923-2, who also both went 5-0. Last week’s leader, TAIL PARTY-2, went 2-3 to fall into 4th place, 1.5 points out of first place.

SuperContest leader HEINEKEN 21 went 4-1 in NFL Week 14 to improve to 49-19-2 (72.1%) and open up a 1.5-point lead over second-place SA247LLC, who also went 4-1 to stand at 48-21-1 (69.6%) with former leaders JHAAS07 and GAMBLING RATS another point back.

Tuesday Best Bets

Golden Knights +110 at Jets: We don’t have any full-fledged swagger or anti-swagger plays for Tuesday (note: we were distracted by NFL football on Sunday and neglected to mention that Coyotes -105 was a swagger play – they beat the Flyers 5-4 – after snapping a six-game losing streak in their prior game, but glad to hear from a couple of readers that they were on top of it and played the Coyotes anyway). This is mini anti-swagger play as the Jets had a four-game winning streak on Sunday (we usually wait for streaks to reach at least six games), but we get the Golden Knights here as a dog as they’re won the first two games against the Jets this season. For chalk players, the Avalanche (-210) is a mini swagger play after snapping a four-game losing streak on Sunday.

Warriors +4.5 at Bucks: This is another mini anti-swagger play against the Bucks, who had a four-game winning streak snapped last time out against the lowly Rockets on Sunday.

Early NFL Week 15 Best Bets

Dolphins +7.5 at Bills: I discussed this bet on “The Greg Peterson Show” on Sunday night even though it was off the board when we went on the air. The advance line last week was Bills -7 but was adjusted down to 6.5 after the Bills’ non-cover against the Jets and before the Sunday nighter with the Dolphins playing. With Miami’s loss to the Chargers, I said I expected this line to go back to 7 and that I would recommend the Dolphins at that number. At 1:44 a.m. ET/10:44 p.m. PT, DraftKing reposted the line at Bills -7 and then when other books posted it on Monday it went to Bills -7.5, which works for us as the Bills continue to let teams stick around, plus we love betting more than a touchdown with a team that already showed they could play with the Bills when they beat them 21-19 in Week 3. 

Texans +14 vs. Chiefs: We love double-digit home underdogs, and as we said on the show, we believe that even though the Chiefs are a popular team that people will be willing to fade them after they failed to cover as 9-point road favorite at the Broncos, plus the way the Texans easily covered as 17-point dogs at the Cowboys. I believe this is more likely to get bet down during the week.