Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 10:
NFL Week 9 was as bad as Week 8 in the Tuley’s Take home office and was a terrible way to end the first half of the season (9 of 18 weeks).
I’m sure everyone knows I had a losing Week 9 as favorites dominated 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS, so it’s not surprising my Best Bets here struggled at 1-5 ATS with the lone win on the Browns +3 in their 23-22 OT loss at the Saints, and even though we were on the right side most of the game, we nearly lost it as we needed the Brown to match the Saints’ TD in overtime or we woulda lost by 7.
For the record, my losses were on the Ravens +10 in a 33-10 rout by the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, Dolphins +7 in a 19-9 loss vs. the Lions, Jets +10 in a 35-12 loss at the Chiefs, Raiders +10 in a 38-17 loss at the 49ers and Cardinals +8.5 in a 17-3 loss at the Seahawks. Fortunately, I did bet Packers +3 and won in their 45-27 win at the Patriots, but I didn’t get the +3.5 in my contests or with my bet that I said I needed to make it a Best Bet, so it doesn’t count in my record here.
That also dropped my overall record here below .500 at 24-25-3 ATS after we were at 59.5% just two weeks ago.
But there is good news.
1) We still have half of the regular season to go.
2) Week 10 starts the Third Quarter of the Circa Sports Million and the next 3-week and 9-week in-season contests in the SuperBook at Westgate/Caesars, so we get a fresh start in those contests.
3) From all my years of experience, I truly believe that chalk bettors need weeks like this to keep playing favorites week after week, so these recent results should help us in the long run to get inflated lines with our “dog or pass” plays.
Anyway, enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes), let’s get to my “takes” on the full NFL Week 10 schedule, which has 14 games with the Bears, Broncos, Buccaneers and Eagles having their bye week.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2)
The Thursday nighter gives us the NFC East-leading Giants (5-2-1) hosting the Commanders (2-5-1) in a must-win spot if they want to have any chance to catch the G-men. The advance line was Giants -1.5 last week and reopened at the same line after they beat the Eagles 19-11 and the Commanders lost 20-13 to the Rams in a game they very easily could have won. The line has been bet up to Giants -2 and even -2.5 at BetMGM as of early Wednesday evening. It looks like a reaction to favorites dominating so much lately and all the chalk-eaters reinvesting their winnings. The line isn’t high enough to get me to bet the Commanders ATS, but I will kick out this week’s Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio at Commanders +8 or better.
I wish I had included more teasers in my Week 10 Best Bets, as I wrote in the intro that I liked the Seahawks -2.5 vs. the Cardinals, but didn’t think there were as many solid plays like usual weeks. I wish I had included Falcons +9, Browns +9, Lions -1, Panthers +8 and Packers +9 in my write-ups, as the Browns were the only loser. We won’t make that mistake again. This week’s other potential TTT legs are: Patriots +9 vs. Lions in Germany, Panthers +8.5 at Saints, Vikings +9 at Packers, and Seahawks 0.5 at Raiders. Mix and match as you see fit.
Best Bet: Washington +8 or better in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Commanders 55/45 rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Giants still 60/40 in SU pools).
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
In the early Sunday international game, we have the Lions favored by a field over the Patriots in Germany. The advance line was pick ’em last week and reopened Lions -2.5 after they beat the Dolphins 19-9 and the Patriots were routed 45-27 by the Packers. The line has since been bet up to Lions -3 (another example of the public driving up the line on favorites after the weekend we just saw), so I’m tempted to take the Patriots plus the points as I expect them to rebound from that lopsided loss, but the neutral site has me wishing it was more than a field goal. So, let’s just include it in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
Best Bet: Patriots +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests, but Lions still 65/35 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) at New York Jets
The Bills are coming off a tough 23-6 win at the Vikings on MNF, so they have a short week, and the Jets are home dogs getting more than a touchdown. I would usually jump on the Jets here, but in trying to avoid dead dogs, I just can’t pull the trigger. The Bills didn’t cover in their 33-30 Week 6 win in Las Vegas, but otherwise they’re just fine as road favorites, as they’re 3-0 ATS in their other road games, so I’m not wanting to fade that with the Jets.
Best Bet: Pass, though maybe Bills -1.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Bills still at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars are rolling along and certainly picking up a lot of bettors on their bandwagon. The advance line for this game was Jaguars -9.5 and has crossed 10 to -10.5. I’m willing to fade the move with a Titans team coming off their bye week. The last time we saw them, they were covering as double-digit underdogs in a 43-26 OT loss at the Bengals in a game they nearly won outright (putting a scare in a ton of Survivor players). I would probably pass if the line was around 7.5 or 8, but I can’t resist a double-digit home dog.
Best Bet: Titans +10.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Titans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-4)
The advance line last week was just Colts -1 as everyone assumed Indianapolis was going to continue its fire sale leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. After the Colts pushed in their 27-23 home loss to the Cowboys (in what was supposed to be Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor’s final games in Indy) and the Dolphins lost 19-9 at home vs. the Lions, the line increased to -2 but now is up to -4 after Jones and Taylor weren’t traded and it was announced Miami QB Malik Willis was headed to the IR list and Kyle McCord getting his first start. The Dolphins are still tempting as dogs of more than a field goal in a battle of bad teams, but I just can’t pull the trigger as the Colts aren’t as depleted as they were supposed to be, plus the untested second-year QB.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Colts still 67/33 in SU pools).
Kansas City Chiefs (-3/-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The advance line was Chiefs -3 with added juice of -115, and it’s pretty much stayed there or at -120, with other books going to 3.5. As regular readers know, the -3/-3.5 in the header means the line can be found at different books, but usually with added juice on the side you want. I lost last week fading the Chiefs with the Jets, and not that confident here with the Falcons, especially with them coming off their 34-17 loss to the Bengals in Madrid, Spain, and not getting a bye week. I’m also not including them in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as we have better options.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
Houston Texans (-5) at Cleveland Browns
The Texans started 0-4 but have won three of four and are trying to get back in the playoff hunt (probably a wild card if they can’t catch the Jaguars). This could be a wild-card tiebreaker down the road as the Browns (5-4) started 5-2 and have lost two straight to come back to the pack. The advance line was Texans -3 -120 and reopened -4 after they routed the Chargers 44-22 and the Browns lost 23-22 in OT at the Saints. That was with Shedeur Sanders, and the line has been bet up to Texans -5 even with Deshaun Watson expected back for Cleveland. But, again, I think that’s more the public betting up the favorites again, and we’ll take the added value.
Best Bet: Browns +5 (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Texans 67/33 in SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Here we are in the thrilling NFC South (sarcasm, as all four teams are below .500) with both these teams at 3-5, and the winner here taking over first place for the time being. The division went 1-3 SU & ATS in Week 10, with the Saints the line SU winner, though they didn’t cover in the 33-32 OT win vs. the Browns. Meanwhile, the Panthers fell short of covering as 3-point home dogs in a 26-21 loss to the Broncos. But the Panthers were competitive and should be right there in this divisional rivalry. The line is too short to take ATS, so add this to our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as well.
Best Bet: Panthers +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Saints 60/40 in SU pools).
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
The NFC North is the antithesis of the NFC South, with all four teams at least three games over .500. This line has been all over the place as the advance line was Packers -2 last week and went to -3 after they routed the Patriots 45-27 on Sunday. Then, after the Vikings lost 23-6 to the Bills on MNF, the line ballooned to Packers -6. However, Carson Wentz looked so bad in the loss that the Vikings traded for the Raiders’ Kirk Cousins on Tuesday, and the line went back down to Packers -3.5. I’m thinking that’s right where it should be (or has been all along without all the knee-jerk reactions), though I wish I had grabbed it at +3.5. But I still believe the Vikings have the better team (don’t forget they beat the Packers 39-22 in the season opener and I like getting points with a team that already proved they can beat the other team), especially with Brian Flores’ defense continuing to step up. And now they have a QB who can step right into the system and have success right away.
Best Bet: Vikings +3 or better, plus Vikings +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Vikings 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +3.5, but Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Moving to the afternoon slate (and one that could have a bunch of blowouts again), we have Cousins’ former team hosting the Seahawks, with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza getting his first start for Vegas. The Raiders have played well protecting their home turf with covers against the Chiefs and Bills, but those games were with Cousins, so we’ll pass on them with the rookie QB’s first start against a strong defense. As I wrote in the intro, I’d rather just include the Seahawks in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as we just need the SU win..
Best Bet: Pass, though maybe Seattle -0.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at Arizona Cardinals
OK. Will the real Rams please stand up. And the real Cardinals, while we’re at it. The Cardinals have been competitive live dogs often this season, but that was with Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, with the former now in Baltimore and the latter on injured reserve. We now get rookie QB Carson Beck, and I’ve passed on a rookie QB (Mendoza) and another young QB (McCord). I’ll take my chances with Beck, as he looks good in the preseason and can hopefully step right into the system that saw the former QBs succeed. Besides, the Rams aren’t at full strength, especially at wide receiver, and have been playing down to their competition all season. And don’t forget the Cardinals actually upset the Rams 18-16 just four weeks ago before the Rams won three straight to get to 5-4. I’ll take the divisional home dog getting more than a TD.
Best Bet: Cardinals +9.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still at least 80/20 in SU pools).
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys
This line has been a solid 49ers -4 from the advance line to the reopener after they routed the Raiders 38-17 coming off their bye week as they rebounded from their loss to the Falcons before the bye to the current line. The Cowboys pushed in their 27-23 win at the Colts as 4-point favorites. This line looks short to me, as I’m surprised it isn’t higher considering both teams’ resumes to this point, and the Cowboys’ porous defense also makes me doubt their offense can keep up with the 49ers.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 SU pools).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
The advance line was Bengals -3 -115. The Steelers were on their bye after beating the Browns 27-6 the last time we saw them, while the Bengals beat the Falcons 34-17 in Madrid, Spain. The line then reopened Bengals -3.5, and I’ll gladly take the hook and the bonus points. I also like that the Steelers won the earlier meeting 30-27 in Week 3 and are now getting more than a FG.
Best Bet: Steelers +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Steelers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bengals 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)
This looked like a marquee MNF game before the season, but oh my, times have changed with the Chargers at 0-8 and the Ravens at 4-5 and without Lamar Jackson. I’d like to make a case for the MNF dog, but the Chargers are also 0-8 ATS and haven’t shown many signs of improvement. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Ravens still 70/30 in SU pools).
For more Week 10 NFL best bets, visit the Week 10 NFL Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
