Tuley’s Takes Today: Saturday recap, Sunday NFL picks (9-19)


Welcome to the 7th edition of this new column, as we wrap up the first with a full slate or pro football Sunday.

NFL Quick Links:
Super Bowl | Betting Splits | Odds | Picks | Matchups


I apologize for posting a little later than normal this Sunday morning as I like to have this posted before sunrise for our East Coast readers, but I crashed hard late Saturday after a full day of action.

My CFB best bets posted yesterday (and from this past week’s issue of “Point Spread Weekly”) went 4-2 ATS. We’ll take that every Saturday, but we were especially pleased that all four of our winners — Minnesota (%plussign% 2) at Colorado, Colorado State (%plussign% 14.5) at Toledo, East Carolina (%plussign% 10) at Marshall and Oklahoma State (%plussign% 4.5) at Boise State — all not only covered by also pulled outright rights. We get graded ATS, but when I pick an underdog I like to think it has a chance to win the game and give a bigger payoff for money-line bettors.

Anyway let’s get to the general recaps:

Saturday’s betting recaps

CFB: Fresno State upset No. 13 UCLA 40-37 late Saturday night as a 10.5-point road underdog & 330 on the money line, The game went Over the betting total of 65 points. Also late, in a matchup of Top 25 teams, No. 23 BYU (%plussign% 3, %plussign% 135 on ML) upset No. 19 Arizona State 27-17. Earlier Saturday, No. 1 Alabama (-14) failed to cover after holding off No. 11 Florida 31-29. No. 10 Penn State (-4) did cover as it held off No. 22 Auburn 28-20. The day’s biggest upset of a Top 25 team (before UCLA) was No. 24 Miami-Fla. losing 38-17 to Michigan St. (%plussign% 7, %plussign% 215 on ML).

On a personal note, my oldest kid, Jordyn, goes to Northern Arizona University (FCS member of the Big Sky Conference), which upset the Pac-12's Arizona 21-19 late Saturday as a 27-point road underdog and %plussign% 1950 on the money line. No, I didn’t bet it, but was proud of the Lumberjacks nonetheless.

MLB: Favorites went 8-7 Saturday, including the Cardinals (-120 vs. Padres) winning their seventh straight game. The day’s biggest upset was by the Diamondbacks (%plussign% 250 at Astros). Faves lead 1,278-874 (59.4%) on the season with w/ 51 pick-’ems. Unders went 8-6-1 with the push on Mariners-Royals (9) and increased their slim lead to 1,052-1,045-100 (50.2%) on the season.
Sunday’s Takes

Panthers (%plussign% 4) vs. Saints: Line is down to 3 at a lot of books with more New Orleans coaches sidelined, so grab %plussign% 3.5 if you still can, but again I’m mostly picking this because I think the Panthers have a great chance to win outright.
Texans (%plussign% 12.5) at Browns: With this huge spread, I’m not as confident in an upset, but continue to wait as the line keeps climbing and we’re still hoping to get %plussign% 14 by kickoff.
Raiders (%plussign% 5.5) at Steelers: This line has been climbing all week but it doesn’t appear like we’ll get to 7, but I still love it at %plussign% 6.5.
Dolphins (%plussign% 3.5) vs. Bills: This is a mix of 3s and 3.5s (often with -120 attached to the side you want), but grab the hook as still plenty of %plussigns% as of early Sunday morning.
Eagles (%plussign% 4) vs. 49ers: This is already at 3. We’ve been hoping it reverses. Hopefully you locked in at a higher number, but I’m still pulling for the outright upset.
Vikings (%plussign% 4.5) at Cardinals: This is down to 3.5 but still playable as long as it’s more than a FG.
Cowboys (%plussign% 3) at Chargers: This was a full-fledged 3.5 for a few days but now is mostly back down to 3. Good like finding the hook now, but again we’re pulling for the upset.
Chiefs-Ravens Over 55: Here’s a surprise. This total has actually dipped to 54 at some books and even some 53.5s. I'm waiting to see if it dips lower and it’s down to 53 at Circa Sports in Las Vegas as of early Sunday morning. Grab the lowest number you can if you’re with me.
Lions (%plussign% 10.5) at Packers: We’re been advising to wait on this one as it’s up to 11 and even 11.5 at several books. It’s still a long way until Monday night and we can be patient to see how high the public bets this one.

Good luck today (and every day!).