NFL Futures Best Bets

It is never too early to start looking at NFL markets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Each week we have new markets that are popping up from MVP to division exactas to top producing rookies. There are a couple that I already have in my account so let’s lock in a price before it changes.

NFL MVP Market

Before we get to the who, let’s talk about how you win this award. In a sense, it’s a parlay. You need individual numbers sure, but you must have a successful team and you have to play Quarterback. Over the last 10 years, every winner has been the Quarterback of a team that is either the #1 or #2 seed in their respective conference. That immediately narrows the field significantly. From the NFC, I would include:

 

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San Francisco – Purdy
Detroit – Goff
Philadelphia – Hurts
Dallas – Prescott

In the AFC, you can make an argument for a couple more teams, but it is a two-horse race in my mind. It would be hard-pressed for Lamar Jackson to win it back-to-back years, and I would be surprised if anyone is the #1 or #2 seed from the AFC East. That leaves:

Kansas City – Mahomes
Cincinnati – Burrow

And that’s the list. Anyone else would be a surprise to me. Of the options, Goff is the clear choice to play at this point. First and foremost, he’s 40-1. That price is outrageous if, like me, you basically narrowed this down to six players. Secondly, the narrative will be there. If the Lions in the NFC, and they are the second-most likely to do so, it will be on the back of this offense, who lost no one, including OC Ben Johnson, in the off-season. You’ve got legitimate talent all around Goff and a favorable home-field advantage. Right now, this is the biggest future ticket that I am holding.

NFL Futures Best Bet: Goff 40-1

Most Passing Yards – RC QBs

This was a new market that was posted last week on DraftKings. I was not expecting to get involved in this, but once I saw the odds, I couldn’t help myself. Caleb Williams is the deserving favorite at +100, with Daniels at +250, McCarthy +350 and Nix +800. Realistically, no one else can win this since playing time is important. While Williams walks into a great scenario with the Bears, the price seems like it’s simply too short. He would have to lead the rookies in passing 55% of the time for this to be a good bet and you still have a long hold time for just 5% upside.

Let’s look to McCarthy at +350 here. He’s also dropping into a wonderful spot with the best receiver in football, a solid #2 and a good tight end. The most dramatic difference is the coaching. He will start under O’Connell, who has proven he knows how to make an offense work. The Vikings are also projected to be behind in quite a few games this year, leading to more passing.

It’s also important to note that of the top three options, I believe McCarthy is the least likely to miss time due to injury. While it’s impossible to forecast, Williams and Daniels both use their legs, which would lead to a higher probability of injury.

NFL Futures Best Bet: McCarthy +350

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