VSiN Analytics Report for Week 11
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
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Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings like a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, LA RAMS, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, SEATTLE, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority handle and the number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) and 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HANDLE – LA CHARGERS, DALLAS
# of BETS – LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) & 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HANDLE – CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, # of Bets – CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HANDLE – CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY # of BETS – CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. This season, it’s dropped a bit. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have rebounded incredibly in 2023 after, going 28-53 ATS last season. They are 22-6 ATS (78.6%) this year! We’ll see if that continues to hold the rest of the way.
System Matches: MIAMI, HOUSTON, DETROIT
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the HANDLE has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HANDLE – UNDER LVR-MIA, UNDER PIT-CLE, UNDER NYJ-BUF, UNDER SEA-LAR, UNDER MIN-DEN # of BETS – UNDER PIT-CLE, UNDER NYJ-BUF, UNDER SEA-LAR, UNDER MIN-DEN
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HANDLE – UNDER ARI-HOU, UNDER TEN-JAC, UNDER DAL-CAR # of BETS – UNDER LVR-MIA, UNDER DAL-CAR, UNDER TB-SF
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UNDER TEN-JAC
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 166-186-9 ATS (47.2%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: CONFLICT b/c Arizona plays at Houston this week
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 140-154-10 ATS (47.6%) in that situation.
System Matches: CONFLICT b/c Arizona plays at Houston this week
Re-Tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 81-120-1 ATS (40.3%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE DENVER
Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites. Since 2013, they’ve gone 88-66 SU but just 49-92-13 ATS, for 34.8%!
System Match: FADE DENVER
Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, re-tread coaches have gone just 56-41 SU and 29-62-6 ATS (31.9%) in their first seasons over the last decade.
System Match: FADE DENVER
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 96-133-9 ATS (41.9%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
