Wednesday Sharp Action Report for Ravens-Steelers


Bettors are in for a treat today as we have a rare Wednesday afternoon NFL game along with a loaded college basketball slate.

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For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer an action update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 p.m. ET to 5 p.m. ET. We'll be breaking down all the big college hoops line moves along with previewing NFL Week 13 games.

In the meantime, let's discuss today's NFL matchup.

3:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This AFC North grudge match was supposed to be played in primetime on Thanksgiving night. Instead it was pushed back to this afternoon as a result of the plethora of positive COVID tests by Baltimore players and support personnel.

After starting the season 5-1, the Ravens (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) have fallen on hard times over the past month, going just 1-3 in their last four games. Baltimore is mired in a two-game losing skid and just fell to the Titans 30-34, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) continue to roll as the NFL's only remaining undefeated team. Pittsburgh just crushed the Jaguars 27-3, easily covering as 10.5-point road favorites.

This line originally opened with the Steelers listed as a 3-point or 4-point home favorite. But then the game went off the board and re-opened at Steelers -10, thanks in large part to Lamar Jackson missing this game and Robert Griffin III starting in his place. The public wants nothing to do with the COVID-stricken Ravens and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the unbeaten Steelers. However, despite this lopsided support, the line hasn't budged off of Pittsburgh -10. This signals some liability on the road dog Ravens. Keep an eye out for a line move this morning and afternoon leading up to the game. If you see a game-day move down to 9.5, that will signal some pro money grabbing the Ravens. If it rises to -10.5, that could be a sign that late money is doubling down on the Steelers.

Baltimore has buy-low contrarian value in a heavily bet game. The Ravens are also a divisional dog (34-26 ATS, 57% this season) and a double-digit dog in a low total revenge game. These teams met roughly a month ago, with Pittsburgh winning 28-24 as a 4-point road dog.

Pros and Joes seem to be united on the over. We've seen the total tick up from 42 to 42.5. Low totals of 42.5 or less are 11-6 (65%) this season. Also, the lead ref Jerome Boger has been profitable to road teams (60% ATS) and overs (54%).