Week 6 NFL picks and predictions from Adam Burke

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Adam Burke
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NFL Week 6 best bets and betting odds

The Sunday slate is not the most attractive one that we’ll see this season, as we have a lot of big favorites and the games with close lines feature some lesser teams. As we know, the spreads are the great equalizers and make even the most mundane NFL game something a lot more interesting.

 

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There is also expected to be a lot of bad weather in the outdoor games, so keep that in mind as you put your final thoughts together for Week 6.

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Here are my favorite Week 6 NFL picks:

(Odds as of October 12, 5:30 p.m. PT)

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 42)

The Falcons should be able to have some offensive success this week against the Commanders. Washington comes in ranked 27th in Rush EPA defense and 22nd in Rush Success Rate against. They’ve also been a well below average pass defense, coming in 28th in Dropback EPA. 

On the flip side, the Falcons defense ranks the best in Rush EPA, so they’ve been really effective at stopping the run. Sam Howell has played better than Desmond Ridder, but the Commanders are going to be a little more one-dimensional because of Atlanta’s success against the run. Howell is also a regression candidate, as his completion percentage is 6% above expectation.

These two teams seem relatively close together from all the stats and the bodies of work, but the Falcons have more dynamic skill guys and I think they’ve got the better defense, so that’s enough to lay under a field goal.

Pick: Falcons -2.5 (would play at -2.5 or better)

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 44)

Gardner Minshew gets the call for the Colts here, as Anthony Richardson recovers from a shoulder injury. Even though this season for the Colts is about Richardson’s development, Minshew is not really a downgrade at this point in time and the market has properly reacted to that sentiment by pushing this line down to 4.

The Jaguars spent two weeks at “home” in London and went 2-0. Now they’re back in Jacksonville and that may almost be a bit of a downer for them, given how things are going in terms of keeping the team in town. More importantly, the Jags are -0.6 yards per play and they’ve really looked pedestrian on offense, even though things were supposed to be even better during the second year of Doug Pederson’s tenure.

By EPA/play, these two teams are pretty equal on offense, but Minshew grades substantially higher in EPA+CPOE composite, which is expected points added and completion percentage over expectation. In fact, Minshew, in a smaller sample size, grades higher than Trevor Lawrence.

Defensively, there isn’t a big difference between the two teams. I think the Colts offense is better with Minshew, so I’ll take the four-point head start.

Pick: Colts +4 (would play to +3.5)

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