Week 8 NFL Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Let’s take a look at my Week 8 NFL best bets:

 

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New York Jets (-7; 41) vs. New England Patriots

In our first of two rematches this weekend, the Jets head to Foxborough to try to right the ship. In the first matchup, the total was 39.5 for a Thursday night clash. Since then, quite a bit has changed for both these teams.

The move to Drake Maye for the Patriots has not resulted in wins right out of the gate, but it sure has jumpstarted this offense. In his two starts, they have scored 21 and 16 points, respectively, while showing the ability to push the ball downfield on the boundary.

The addition of Davante Adams did not pay immediate dividends for the Jets last week versus the Steelers defense, but they should have an easier time of it against the Patriots D that has one solid cornerback with a motley crew as the rest of the secondary.

With both offenses getting a substantial upgrade since the last matchup, I’m surprised the total did not get a similar upgrade from the first game. I’ve got this total lined close to 43.5, so there is still quite a bit of room to the Over.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Over 41

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-7; 41)

Welcome to the widowmaker spot. This is the longest possible rest advantage for two teams that played in the same week.

The last time we saw the Saints was in a mess of an effort last Thursday, where they basically had the second string all over the field. The offense is expected to get reinforcements this week with two offensive linemen returning, the addition of WR1 Chris Olave and go-go-gadget play man Taysom Hill.

The Chargers played on Monday night in a loss to the Cardinals, and they were much more throw-happy than during the start of the season. In fact, off the bye, the Chargers have been throwing the ball all over the yard. They get back Quentin Johnston and possibly DJ Chark to bolster a lackluster group of pass catchers.

Both teams’ additions point to the Over, as does the spot. The Over has hit 70% of the time when teams face off in this rest spot. It’s already 2-0 this year and I expect another over.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Over 41

Prop Plays

Jordan Love, Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards

This seems like a perfect storm for Jordan Love hitting at least one deep ball. He’s gone Over this total in four of the five games he has played in and now gets to face a man-first Jacksonville defense that is prone to giving up the big play. Love will take multiple shots deep in this one, we just need him to hit one.

Javonte Williams Longest Run Over 14.5 Yards +105

In another perfect prop storm, we get Javonte Williams, who has had a 15+ yard run in three of his last four games since taking over the backfield in Denver. Meanwhile, the Panthers D has given up a run of 15 or more in six of their seven games to seven different players. Denver will want to run the ball, and Williams will break at least one of them.

Other Plays

Mahomes Over 1.5 TD Passes -115
Chicago Bears -2.5

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