Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 3 best bets:
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 (-115) at Buffalo Bills
Last week, the Chargers earned the unfortunate distinction of becoming just the second team in the Super Bowl era to lose outright in Weeks 1 and 2 as a 6-point or more favorite (2022 Bengals, who did win their next two games that season).
Nevertheless, it certainly will not be easy for the Bolts, as Buffalo looks like a wagon (they do circle them after all) and comes off the christening of their new stadium and has three days of extra rest.
Justin Herbert has thrown three picks in two games and has already been sacked six times behind an offensive line that has been poor, especially at the center and guard positions. On the other hand, this has historically been a good spot for Herbert, as he is 12-3-1 ATS in his career as an underdog of 3 or more points. Meanwhile, the Bills have been here before, where they look invincible and then seem to have unforeseen struggles. Buffalo is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games off a double-digit victory.
The 0-2 SU and ATS teams in Week 3 as underdogs are now 29-14 ATS since 2015 with Atlanta’s cover (and outright win) on Thursday Night Football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are somehow 2-0 despite being outgained in both games. In fact, Minnesota ranks dead last in Total Offense at just 242.5 yards per game. This week, Kyler Murray returns at QB after missing last week in concussion protocol. Essentially, this is his debut for the Vikings as he only lasted two series in the opener vs. Green Bay before being knocked out of the game.
Tampa Bay is 0-2, but this is the NFC South, and that start is not necessarily a death sentence in this division. Granted, the Bucs have not been great, but they have also been unlucky. They lost four fumbles that Cincinnati converted into 24 points in their 33-27 opener, and then blew a 16-6 lead in last week’s 23-19 loss to Cleveland.
The Bucs have now failed to cover the spread in 11 straight games dating back to last season, which is tied for the longest in the history of the NFL. Like the Chargers above, Tampa qualifies in that 0-2 SU/ATS angle.
Arizona Cardinals + 8.5 at San Francisco 49ers
After winning outright on the road against the Chargers as nearly 10-point underdogs in Week 1, Arizona was dominated at home by Seattle in a 31-7 defeat. The Cardinals only mustered 10 first downs and 151 yards. Now they have another division game on the road in Santa Clara against the 49ers, who beat the Dolphins, 35-13, after a slow start.
However, victories rarely come without some cost. San Francisco will be without star pass rusher Nick Bosa for several weeks with a calf injury. This only adds to the cluster of defensive line injuries for the Niners, as Alfred Collins is already out for the season; Mikel Williams is on the PUP list, plus C.J. West and Sam Okuayinomu are on IR. It is not just the defense affected by injury clusters, as the Niners are down Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk, and De’Zhaun Stribling at receiver, plus DeMarcus Robinson and Mike Evans are not 100 percent. This team seemingly goes through these injury woes annually, which is why it was not the worst idea to take the “free square” and burn them in Survivor pools last week.
Surprisingly enough, the 49ers have lost eight consecutive games ATS at home vs. NFC West opponents, with their last cover coming back in October of 2023.
While San Francisco looks like one of the league’s best and currently ranks No. 1 in DVOA, this line is inflated of disparate performances, and the Niners’ injury clusters are a major concern.
This line also has not moved all week, not even for Wong teaser (teasing up or down through 3 and 7), as the 8.5 still sits in the market. It may not look like it, but this is a scary spot for San Francisco.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Seahawks -1.5/Colts +8
BEST OF THE REST
Jaguars -150 ML vs. Patriots
Panthers/Browns Under 42.5
Dolphins +10.5 vs. Chiefs
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
SPONSORED
Nick Menken of Doc’s Sports is coming out firing on the gridiron this season, hitting an impressive 75% to start the 2026 football season. Menken is currently 12-4 in his football selections and is coming off a dominant 5-1 football weekend, banking +$1,150 in profit already this season.
Menken’s 2026 Football Season
After going 2-0 on Saturday, Menken carried that momentum into Sunday with a 3-1 NFL performance, capping off another highly profitable weekend. Now, he’s ready to keep the momentum rolling into Week 3 with more opportunities, more firepower, and another full slate of football action.
Get your free trial with him at docsports.com
