Most NHL coaches have their go-to forward line that they lean on to drive offense at even strength, but not Flames’ head coach Darryl Sutter. Calgary has been rolling out three forward lines, and depending on who you ask, the order is up for debate:
Current Calgary Flames Forward Lines:
|
Dillon Dube |
Elias Lindholm |
Tyler Toffoli |
|
Milan Lucic |
Nazem Kadri |
Jonathan Huberdeau |
|
Andrew Mangiapane |
Mikael Backlund |
Blake Coleman |
Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau all play on the top power play unit, so oddsmakers have deemed those players the most likely to register points on Thursday, which makes sense given that they are Calgary’s top producers.
Over/Under 0.5 Points (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
|
Player |
Over 0.5 Points |
Under 0.5 Points |
|
Elias Lindholm |
-240 |
+175 |
|
Nazem Kadri |
-200 |
+150 |
|
Tyler Toffoli |
-200 |
+150 |
|
Jonathan Huberdeau |
-165 |
+125 |
|
Andrew Mangiapane |
-135 |
-105 |
|
Mikael Backlund |
-135 |
-105 |
However, not all teams operate in the same way, and Sutter’s coaching style is unique. Lindholm, Toffoli and Kadri are the Flames top players, but Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane, and Blake Coleman might be the most effective line right now. They see the most minutes at even strength, and over the last 10-plus games, they’ve really increased their production.
Flames Player Stats Since Jan. 1st
|
Player |
Points Per 60 |
Shots Per 60 |
Ice Time Per Game |
|
Tyler Toffoli |
3.57 |
11.43 |
16:48 |
|
Andrew Mangiapane |
3.55 |
8.86 |
16:56 |
|
Mikael Backlund |
2.71 |
14.21 |
17:44 |
|
Nazem Kadri |
2.66 |
12.66 |
18:01 |
|
Elias Lindholm |
2.64 |
6.6 |
18:11 |
|
Jonathan Huberdeau |
2.2 |
5.12 |
16:24 |
|
Blake Coleman |
2.19 |
12.05 |
16:26 |
At first blush, it should be obvious that Backlund, Mangiapane and Blake Coleman are being undervalued in the player prop market but let me break it down with some best bets for Thursday’s game in Calgary.
Best NHL Player Prop Bets for Thursday, January 26th
There are several ways a bettor can target this line for NHL player prop bets, let’s keep it simple and target each player’s strengths.
Andrew Mangiapane Over 0.5 Points (-135)
Mangiapane has been leading the way for the Flames, registering points in seven of his last 10 games. He doesn’t generate as many shots as the other top players, but he does generate a lot of scoring chances and expected goals. Since Jan. 1st, Mangiapane ranks third on the team in expected goals per 60 minutes and he is tied with Toffoli for the team lead in points with 10.
Mikael Backlund Over 2.5 Shots (-155) and Over 0.5 Points (-135)
Like Mangiapane, Backlund is one of the team leaders in points over the last month, but his best skill is getting pucks on net. Backlund ranks fifth among all NHL players in shots per 60 minutes since Jan. 1st and has registered at least three shots in 18 of 26 games since Dec. 1st. Chicago ranks among the bottom-five teams in shots against since Jan. 1st and Backlund and his linemates should be able to take advantage of that.
Blake Coleman Over 2.5 Shots (-105)
Coleman has produced a respectable six points in his last 10 games, but you won’t find his points total listed anywhere. However, Coleman is right behind Backlund and Kadri in terms of shot generation over the last 10 games and he has registered at least three shots in nine of his last 12 games. Coleman also leads the team in expected goals per 60 minutes during that stretch, for what it’s worth.
Wins: 8
Losses: 4
Units Won: +4.10 units
ROI: 28.6 percent
All bets tracked via third-party app Betstam
