Examining Recent Game Seven Results in the NHL Playoffs:
Montreal Canadiens (-105) at Buffalo Sabres (-115)
Total 5.5 (Under, -125)
Game 7 – Monday, May 18
It’s the two best words in sports: Game Seven! For the second time in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs, we have Game Seven and the Montreal Canadiens have been a part of both series-deciding games. The Canadiens somehow got past Tampa in their round one Game Seven by a 2-1 score despite being outshot, 24-9. Montreal’s prior Game Seven was a 3-1 victory over the Maple Leafs in the 2021 playoffs. With this being the Sabres’ first trip to the playoffs in 15 years, their Game Seven numbers don’t have any relevance. Their head coach, Lindy Ruff, won his last Game Seven when he was behind the bench for the New Jersey Devils (2023 playoffs) in Jersey’s 4-0 blanking of the Rangers. Overall, he is 1-4 as a head coach in Game Seven. Alex Tuch is the only current Buffalo Sabres player with a goal in a Game Seven. Alex Newhook and Nick Suzuki were the goal scorers in Montreal’s Game Seven win over Tampa. Brendan Gallagher is the only active Canadiens player who scored a goal when the Habs defeated the Maple Leafs.
In examining the Game Seven results over the past five years, home teams are only 10-8. Last year’s playoffs saw all three Game Sevens combined for six goals or more (two of the three had seven goals), but 12 of the last 18 have combined for five goals or less. Fourteen of those 18 games were decided by two goals or fewer. Even though these two teams have combined for six goals or more in 12 of their last 13 meetings, the full game total for Game Seven is 5.5 and juiced to the Under (-125) as sportsbooks are putting a greater emphasis on the recent history of Game Sevens as opposed to the Sabres and Canadiens recent results. The Canadiens are 5-0 in this year’s playoffs after a loss, and they are 5-2 on the road while the Sabres have a losing record at home in the playoffs (2-4). I am leaning toward taking both teams on the money line and parlaying that with the alternate team total (Under 6.5) in two separate bets. I will be back on Monday with my official plays.
Below is a breakdown of the final scores of the last 18 Game Sevens in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
2025-26
Montreal 2 Tampa 1
2024-25
Colorado 2 Dallas 4
St. Louis 3 Winnipeg 4 (Double Overtime)
Florida 6 Toronto 1
2023-24
Toronto 1 Boston 2 (Overtime)
Vegas 1 Dallas 2
Edmonton 3 Vancouver 2
Edmonton 1 Florida 2
2022-23
Florida 4 Boston 3 (Overtime)
Seattle 2 Colorado 1
NY Rangers 4 New Jersey 0
Seattle 1 Dallas 2
2021-22
Boston 2 Carolina 3
Tampa 2 Toronto 1
LA Kings 0 Edmonton 2
Pittsburgh 3 NY Rangers 4 (Overtime)
Dallas 2 Calgary 3 (Overtime)
NY Rangers 6 Carolina 2
