NHL Best Bets

Last night was brutal. Both the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning were back on home ice, down 2-0 in their respective series, and you’d think at least one of them would find a way to win. That wasn’t the case. Tonight will be way more exciting with more games to choose from for NHL best bets: one in the East and three in the West. 

Vancouver at Nashville (-115, 5.5)

Bridgestone Arena is one of the most difficult buildings to play in, especially in the playoffs. Tonight, the Nashville Predators play their first home game of the postseason. The big storyline in this series is that the Vancouver Canucks will be without their starting goaltender Thatcher Demko which means that Casey DeSmith will stand in the blue paint. 

 

DeSmith made his second career playoff start in Game Two, and it did not go as he had hoped. The Predators scored three goals on just 15 shots on goal, earning DeSmith a .800 save percentage for the night. 

The Canucks didn’t get a great showing from their star forward, Elias Pettersson in Game Three. He had nine shot attempts. Seven of those got blocked, zero hit the net, and he was a -3 on the night. His team is going to need him to be much better if they’re going to make any noise in the postseason. Pettersson has 0 points and is -4 through two games. 

Filip Forsberg, on the other hand, had a very strong game for the Predators in Game Two. Their best player stepped up when the team needed it most. He had a goal and an assist while being a +2. 

One area for concern is the Canucks power play which was ranked 11th during the regular season, clicking at a 22.7% rate. Thus far in this series, the Canucks have failed to convert on six attempts through two games. The Predators’ power play hasn’t been much better, as they’ve scored on one of their eight attempts, but their man-advantage wasn’t nearly as effective in the regular season as it was for the Canucks. 

It’s clear that the Predators have the goaltending advantage even though Juuse Saros hasn’t been completely lights out. He’s been good, but still has another level to get to. 

Tonight is going to be a very difficult environment for the Canucks. I love Nashville at home. 

NHL Best Bet: Nashville Predators ML -115 (play to -125)

Edmonton at Los Angeles (+120, 6.5)

The Edmonton Oilers suffered a stunning overtime loss in Game Two on home ice. After going down 2-0 early, the Oilers were able to come back and tie the game at 4-4, forcing overtime, but Anze Kopitar, like he has so many times, came up in the clutch for the Los Angeles Kings. 

Now, this series is tied 1-1 heading back to Hollywood, and the Kings should feel pretty good about themselves. 

But you know who shouldn’t feel great going into this game? The goaltenders. 

There have been 20 goals scored between the two games so far in this series, Cam Talbot and Stuart Skinner have put up some rough numbers. Talbot is skating to a .867 save percentage and a 4.96 goals against average while Skinner has a .857 save percentage with a 4.42 goals against average. I mean, yikes. 

There’s also been a significant difference in the power plays in this series. The Kings may not have an answer for the Oilers, but they did make some proper adjustments in Game 2. Through the first two games, the Oilers have gone 4/7 on the power play, while the Kings have gone 0/5. Los Angeles needs to figure out its man advantage to stay in this series. 

Both games have been played relatively wide open. The Kings have had a really hard time slowing the Oilers down, but in their defense, almost every team does. Edmonton has been fumbling the puck way too much, which has allowed the Kings to force turnovers and put the puck past Skinner. 

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard have been able to find the scoresheet through the first two games. McDavid has six assists, Draisaitl has tallied a goal with three assists, Hyman has notched four goals with an assist, and Bouchard was held pointless in Game Two but had four assists in Game One. 

Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, and Quinton Byfield have led the way for the Kings. Kempe had a big Game 2 with two goals, but he has three goals and one assist in the series. Kopitar has a goal with two helpers, and Byfield hasn’t put one in yet, but he has three assists of his own. 

These games will continue to be high-scoring, but I expect a big bounce back from the Oilers tonight. 

NHL Best Bet(s): Edmonton Oilers ML -142 (play to -155) | Over 6.5 +100 (play to -115)

2023-24 record: 149–146 (-27.55 units)

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