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NHL betting market report for Wednesday, November 9th
Recap: Tuesday’s best bet, a two unit play on the Los Angeles Kings, came through, but the game was much more of a sweat than I had anticipated. The Kings were the better team, but the score was close (1-0) and I feel pretty fortunate to have won that bet.
Thanks to a flight delay my schedule is screwed up, and I’m a little late getting started on Wednesday’s betting market report. So, it’s time to fire up my NHL betting model and find out if there’s any value in the market.
Wins: 24 Losses: 22 Units Won: +2.96 units ROI: +6.4percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Tuesday’s Bets: There are currently no bets.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Carolina Hurricanes (-110) at Florida Panthers (-110)
Hurricanes’ goaltender Frederik Andersen left practice on Tuesday with an apparent injury and his status for Wednesday’s game against the Florida Panthers is up in the air. Head coach Rod Brind ’Amour did not have any intel on the type of injury Andersen might’ve sustained. As a result, the Hurricanes recalled goaltender Pytor Kochetkov from the American Hockey League just to be safe. If Andersen can’t play, that will likely mean that backup goaltender Antti Raanta will start the game. Panthers’ defenseman Aaron Ekblad is expected to be back in the lineup soon, but his return is dated for Saturday, so I didn’t factor him into the equation. My NHL betting model prices this game as a coin flip if Andersen is in goal for the Hurricanes, but if not, the Panthers should be a small favorite. However, with the game now lined at -110 a side, it doesn’t really matter what happens. Even if the Hurricanes have to start Raanta, there isn’t enough value on the home team to justify making a bet at the current odds.
Note: The game is still scheduled to be played despite a tropical storm warning in the Sunrise area, but things could change.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) at Washington Capitals (+105)
Trying to project the Capitals’ lineup is tough. Their two top defenders are injured, but both are expected to return at some point this week. Dmitry Orlov is listed day-to-day, and John Carlson is expected to be out until Thursday, at least. Forward T.J. Oshie is also out, and not expected to be back in the lineup this week, and the team is already missing Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin and Connor Brown. It’s not pretty. Still, the Capitals are in the thick of things, though. The Penguins are in better shape to win a given game than the Capitals are, but it’s hard to have confidence in a team that has been outscored 33-16 during a seven-game losing streak. I don’t feel comfortable putting a price on this game given the lack of information regarding the Capitals’ lineup. There’s a wide range of probabilities here i.e., the Capitals could be a small favorite or a sizable underdog.
Note: The Penguins have had three days off. Washington has only had one day of rest.
Vancouver Canucks (-145) at Montreal Canadiens (+125)
Montreal pulled off an upset (3-2) over the Red Wings in Detroit on Tuesday while the Canucks won a thriller (6-4) in Ottawa against the Senators. Jake Allen started for the Canadiens and Spencer Martin started for the Canucks, which means we’re probably going to see Samuel Montembeault versus Thatcher Demko. This works out in favor of the Canucks, at least in theory, but my model suggests the game is priced fairly, for the most part. Vancouver should win the game about 58 percent of the time, which converts to fair odds of around -140.
Minnesota Wild (-160) at Anaheim Ducks (+140)
The Wild lost a nail-biter (1-0) in Los Angeles on Tuesday. It was the second game in a row that they were shut out. The Wild have lost seven out of their first 12 games this season, and as I mentioned in Tuesday’s report, they haven’t beaten any teams of note. Minnesota’s only wins have come against Vancouver, Montreal (twice), Ottawa and Chicago i.e., four of the weakest teams in the league. They should be able to defeat the Ducks, even on the second half of a back-to-back, given that Anaheim is arguably the worst team in the NHL right now. However, the Ducks have been scoring goals recently (23 goals for in the last five games) and their offense might prove to be a challenge for the Wild, who rank among the bottom-10 teams in goals against. My NHL betting model prices the Wild at around -155.
Note: Marc-Andre Fleury started on Tuesday and that means we’ll likely see backup Filip Gustavsson start Wednesday’s game.
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