Makinen: NHL Schedule Scenarios are an important betting ingredient

73

In most daily sports, a team’s rest and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or for the purposes of this article, the ice. I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine. It is proving to be a fruitful exercise again in the 2022-23 season, as you’ll see from these NHL Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results thus far. I believe they all have a foundation to them as well, which I will explain. As an added bonus, I will also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage.

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1

NHL road teams playing on equal rest as their opponent hosts are 181-181 for +15.56 units of profit in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th.

 

Steve’s thoughts: The value of home ice in the NHL has diminished greatly in recent years. Aside from some specific franchises that continue to enjoy tremendous home ice performance (Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay), bettors would be wise to consider the value that road teams inherit from oddsmakers by the establishment of home ice vigorish. A .500 won-lost record system producing over 4% profit on something as simple as recognizing two teams last played on the same day is not something to overlook. It doesn’t get much simpler than that. Oh, and by the way, the host teams in this system have lost -54.2 units for backers, an R.O.I. of -15%.

Upcoming games for system #1

Thursday, January 19, 2023       

Winnipeg Jets                     One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs           One Day 

 

Chicago Blackhawks           One Day
Philadelphia Flyers              One Day

 

Florida Panthers                   One Day
Montreal Canadiens             One Day

 

Anaheim Ducks                    One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets      One Day

 

Washington Capitals           One Day
Arizona Coyotes                   One Day

 

Friday, January 20, 2023 
Ottawa Senators                 One Day
Pittsburgh Penguins            One Day

 

Colorado Avalanche            One Day
Vancouver Canucks            One Day

 

Saturday, January 21, 2023       
Arizona Coyotes                  One Day
Dallas Stars                         One Day           

 

Carolina Hurricanes            One Day
New York Islanders             One Day           

 

Los Angeles Kings              One Day
Nashville Predators            One Day           

 

Philadelphia Flyers             One Day
Detroit Red Wings              One Day           

 

Toronto Maple Leafs          One Day
Montreal Canadiens           One Day           

 

Anaheim Ducks                  One Day
Buffalo Sabres                    One Day           

 

Chicago Blackhawks          One Day
St. Louis Blues                   One Day          

 

Minnesota Wild                   One Day
Florida Panthers                 One Day          

 

Washington Capitals           One Day
Vegas Golden Knights        One Day

 

Sunday, January 22, 2023          
Vegas Golden Knights        Home/Away Back-to-Back
Arizona Coyotes                 Away/Home Back-to-Back        

 

Los Angeles Kings               Away/Away Back-to-Back
Chicago Blackhawks           Away/Home Back-to-Back        

 

Winnipeg Jets                      Away/Away Back-to-Back
Philadelphia Flyers              Away/Home Back-to-Back

 

Monday, January 23, 2023         
Buffalo Sabres                      One Day
Dallas Stars                          One Day

 

Columbus Blue Jackets      One Day
Calgary Flames                  One Day

 

New York Islanders             One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs           One Day

 

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        
Los Angeles Kings               One Day
Philadelphia Flyers              One Day

 

Vegas Golden Knights        One Day
New Jersey Devils              One Day

 

Minnesota Wild                   Two Days
Tampa Bay Lightning          Two Days

 

Washington Capitals           Two Days
Colorado Avalanche            Two Days

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  
New York Rangers              One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs           One Day

 

Thursday, January 26, 2023       
Detroit Red Wings             One Day
Montreal Canadiens          One Day

 

New Jersey Devils            One Day
Nashville Predators           One Day

 

Philadelphia Flyers           One Day
Minnesota Wild                 One Day

 

Pittsburgh Penguins         One Day
Washington Capitals        One Day

 

St. Louis Blues                 One Day
Arizona Coyotes               One Day

 

Anaheim Ducks                One Day
Colorado Avalanche         One Day

 

Boston Bruins                   One Day
Tampa Bay Lightning        One Day

 

Buffalo Sabres                  One Day
Winnipeg Jets                   One Day

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2

NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario have gone 199-190 for +28.09 units of profit (7.2% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, regardless of the home opponents scheduling situation.

Steve’s thoughts: The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so it figures to bring the greatest amount of routine into play. Essentially, this is when a team plays one day (or night), is off the next, then plays the following day again. This has been a very strong spot for road teams, and figures to continue as such as we get deeper into the 2022-23 season where rest/fatigue become bigger factors. For the record, the home teams going against the road teams in this one-day rest scenario have lost 66.58 units, for an R.O.I. of -17.1%.

Upcoming games for system #2

Thursday, January 19, 2023       
Winnipeg Jets                     One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs           One Day

 

Minnesota Wild                   One Day
Carolina Hurricanes            3+ Days

 

Chicago Blackhawks           One Day
Philadelphia Flyers              One Day

 

Florida Panthers                  One Day
Montreal Canadiens            One Day

 

Anaheim Ducks                   One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets       One Day

 

Nashville Predators             One Day
St. Louis Blues                    Two Days

 

Washington Capitals           One Day
Arizona Coyotes                  One Day

 

Detroit Red Wings               One Day
Vegas Golden Knights        Two Days

 

Friday, January 20, 2023 
Ottawa Senators                 One Day
Pittsburgh Penguins            One Day

 

Colorado Avalanche            One Day
Vancouver Canucks            One Day

 

Saturday, January 21, 2023       
Arizona Coyotes                   One Day
Dallas Stars                          One Day

 

Carolina Hurricanes             One Day
New York Islanders              One Day

 

Edmonton Oilers                  One Day
Vancouver Canucks             Home/Home Back-to-Back           

 

Los Angeles Kings               One Day
Nashville Predators             One Day

 

Philadelphia Flyers              One Day
Detroit Red Wings               One Day

 

Toronto Maple Leafs            One Day
Montreal Canadiens            One Day

 

Anaheim Ducks                   One Day
Buffalo Sabres                     One Day

 

Chicago Blackhawks            One Day
St. Louis Blues                     One Day

 

Minnesota Wild                    One Day
Florida Panthers                  One Day

 

Tampa Bay Lightning          One Day
Calgary Flames                   Two Days

 

Washington Capitals           One Day
Vegas Golden Knights        One Day

 

Winnipeg Jets                     One Day
Ottawa Senators                 Away/Home Back-to-Back

 

Sunday, January 22, 2023          
Pittsburgh Penguins           One Day
New Jersey Devils             Two Days

 

Monday, January 23, 2023         
Buffalo Sabres                    One Day
Dallas Stars                        One Day           

 

Columbus Blue Jackets      One Day
Calgary Flames                  One Day

 

Florida Panthers                 One Day
New York Rangers              3+ Days           

 

New York Islanders             One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs           One Day

 

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        
Boston Bruins                      One Day
Montreal Canadiens            Two Days          

 

Chicago Blackhawks           One Day
Vancouver Canucks            Two Days           

 

Los Angeles Kings               One Day
Philadelphia Flyers              One Day           

 

San Jose Sharks                 One Day
Detroit Red Wings               Two Days           

 

Vegas Golden Knights        One Day
New Jersey Devils              One Day           

 

Winnipeg Jets                      One Day
Nashville Predators             Two Days

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  
New York Rangers              One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs           One Day           

 

Columbus Blue Jackets      One Day
Edmonton Oilers                 3+ Days         

 

New York Islanders             One Day
Ottawa Senators                 3+ Days

 

Thursday, January 26, 2023       
Detroit Red Wings               One Day
Montreal Canadiens            One Day          

 

New Jersey Devils              One Day
Nashville Predators             One Day           

 

Philadelphia Flyers              One Day
Minnesota Wild                    One Day           

 

Pittsburgh Penguins            One Day
Washington Capitals           One Day

 

St. Louis Blues                    One Day
Arizona Coyotes                  One Day

 

Anaheim Ducks                   One Day
Colorado Avalanche            One Day

 

Boston Bruins                      One Day
Tampa Bay Lightning           One Day           

 

Buffalo Sabres                     One Day
Winnipeg Jets                      One Day       

 

Chicago Blackhawks           One Day
Calgary Flames                   Two Days

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3

NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario have gone 84-64 for +8.78 units of profit (5.9% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, when matched against a road team not in that scenario.

Steve’s thoughts: While 8.78 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 5.9% aren’t earth shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall in 2022-23, as described somewhat in system #1. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for.

Upcoming games for system #3

Thursday, January 19, 2023       
New York Islanders              Home/Away Back-To-Back
Buffalo Sabres                      One Day           

 

Tampa Bay Lightning           Away/Away Back-To-Back
Edmonton Oilers                  One Day         

 

New Jersey Devils               Two Days
Seattle Kraken                     One Day

 

Saturday, January 21, 2023       
Colorado Avalanche            Away/Away Back-To-Back
Seattle Kraken                    One Day           

 

San Jose Sharks                Two Days
Columbus Blue Jackets      One Day

 

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        
Florida Panthers                   Away/Away Back-To-Back
Pittsburgh Penguins             One Day           

 

Anaheim Ducks                    Two Days
Arizona Coyotes                   One Day

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  
Carolina Hurricanes             3+ Days
Dallas Stars                         One Day

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4

NHL home teams playing that are well rested, or playing in the 3+ Days rest scenario have gone 36-19 for +18.17 units of profit (33% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, regardless of the road opponent’s scheduling scenario.

Steve’s thoughts: Again, taking away the overall lack of success by home teams in 2022-23, this is obviously a very potent scenario to consider when wagering. Home teams that have been off for 3+ days seem to have fully taken advantage of the rest period to rejuvenate. This is a scheduling scenario in which being at home is advantageous, and it stems not just from gameday, but the rest period prior as well. Road teams in this scenario are -22.34 units for an R.O.I. of -40.6%.

Upcoming games for system #4

 

Thursday, January 19, 2023       
Minnesota Wild                  One Day
Carolina Hurricanes           3+ Days           

 

Dallas Stars                        Away/Away Back-To-Back
Los Angeles Kings              3+ Days

 

Monday, January 23, 2023         
Florida Panthers                 One Day
New York Rangers              3+ Days

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  
Vancouver Canucks            Home/Away Back-To-Back
Seattle Kraken                     3+ Days           

 

Columbus Blue Jackets      One Day
Edmonton Oilers                 3+ Days           

 

New York Islanders             One Day
Ottawa Senators                 3+ Days

 

NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5

NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario are 6-0 for +7.3 units of profit (121.7% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, when matched against a road team that played the prior day at home.

Steve’s thoughts: Obviously there are travel advantages associated with this one. Playing at home on the second of back-to-back games is a lot more comfortable for players than having to travel late the night before and arrive in a road city in a rushed fashion. Road teams that have played in this scenario so far this season have yet to win, and obviously, when considering the relationship to system #1 earlier, these six losses and their negative units could be backed out of the overall record for an even greater profit margin/percentage. This system doesn’t occur that often but here are the remaining season games in which it will be in play, assuming no changes to the schedule occur. You can see that the first opportunity is set for this coming Sunday.

Upcoming games for system #5

 

Sunday, January 22, 2023          
Vegas Golden Knights        Home/Away Back-To-Back
Arizona Coyotes             

Previous articleSeeley: EPL Best Bets for this weekend
Next articleTuley: Saturday Best Bets, updated ‘takes’ on NFL Divisional Playoffs
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.