NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 10/26


Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.

Market Report for Wednesday, Oct. 26th


Recap: There was lots of action on Tuesday, but I just had a small bet on the Boston Bruins that won.

Wins: 16 Losses: 11 Units Won: 4.69 units ROI: 16.8 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Today: It doesn’t look like I’ll have any bets on the three games on Wednesday, but there are 10 games on Thursday. There will be plenty of opportunities to get down on games then.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

New York Rangers (EVEN) at New York Islanders (-120)

Igor Shesterkin played on Tuesday. Therefore, you’re not going to get a bargain betting against the Rangers on Wednesday in Long Island. Everybody knows that backup goaltender Jaroslav Halak will likely start the second half of the back-to-back, and most sportsbooks didn’t put up a moneyline for this game until the market had been shaped. The game opened as a pick ’em, but it only took 15 minutes for the Islanders to become a short favorite at -120.

The Rangers have lost three games in a row, including two against beatable opponents (San Jose and Columbus) at home, and they’ve scored two or fewer goals in four out of their last five games. The Islanders are not a formidable opponent, and their starting goaltender, Ilya Sorokin, is off to a poor start. But Sorokin gets the benefit of the doubt due to a small sample of games and the fact that he was one of the best goaltenders in the league last season. The Islanders deserve to be a small favorite, but there’s no value in betting on them at -120.  

Edmonton Oilers (-115) at St. Louis Blues (-105)

St. Louis blanked the Oilers (2-0) on the weekend in Edmonton, and now the Oilers have a chance to exact revenge. The Blues were shutout two nights later in Winnipeg (0-4). It was their first loss of the season, but they’ve only played four games and are already down an important player in Pavel Buchnevich, and Brandon Saad is listed as day-to-day as well. But the biggest concern for the Blues right now is goaltending.

Wednesday’s game against Edmonton is the first half of a back-to-back. The Blues will travel to Nashville to play the Predators on Thursday. Backup goaltender Thomas Greiss started the game in Winnipeg and played well considering he allowed three goals on 42 shots, but he’s on the wrong side of 35 and my confidence in him is low. My guess is that Jordan Binnington will start on Wednesday because he just shutout the Oilers in his last game, but I must think head coach Craig Berube is going to give Greiss one of these next two starts and that makes this game tough to handicap.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) at Anaheim Ducks (%plussign% 125)

Like the game between the Rangers and Islanders, a lot of sportsbooks weren’t offering a moneyline on this game until early Wednesday morning and things moved quick. Everybody knows Andrei Vasilevskiy started on Tuesday in Los Angeles, and that means Brian Elliott has will almost certainly start on Wednesday in Anaheim. The Ducks opened at a consensus price of %plussign% 145 but dropped to %plussign% 125 in around 40 minutes.

The drop off from Vasilevskiy to Elliott is probably the biggest of any tandem in the league. After all, Vasilevskiy is arguably the best goaltender in hockey, but that isn’t a secret. So, in situations like this, if you think there is value betting against a backup, you’ll have to find some sportsbooks that are willing to post tomorrow’s lines today and act quickly when the starting goaltender is announced the day before. That’s tough to do, though.

My model estimates that the Lightning should be priced around -135 on Wednesday, which means there’s no value in betting on either side at the current price. There was some value on the Ducks earlier, but as I mentioned in the first paragraph, it only lasted about a half an hour. I’m not against grabbing low hanging fruit, but it doesn’t really work in the context of this report due to how time sensitive it is. Opening numbers aren’t widely available and it’s not practical to analyze them in this way.

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2021-22 Betting Season Recap:

NHL Betting Guide (Futures): plus-25.9 units

Reg Season (Sides and Totals): plus-6.22 units

Player Props:  minus-15.33 units

Playoffs (Sides and Totals):  minus-14.43 units

Thoughts: I tried to do too much last season (The Propagator is one example) because it was the first time that I was going to be producing content at large scale. I was worried that my typical betting habits would be seen as too selective and therefore not enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.

Going forward: I am back to focusing on what has worked for me all along: Making long term forecasts for futures markets and handicapping all 1,312 regular season games.