Thursday NHL Sharp Report

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s loaded 12-game NHL slate…

 

 

7 p.m. ET: Seattle Kraken at Boston Bruins (-225, 6.5) 

The Kraken (24-12-4) have won six straight games and just took down the Sabres 4-3, winning as short -105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bruins (32-4-4) own the best record in the NHL and have won four straight. Boston just crushed the Ducks 7-1, cruising as -300 road favorites. This line opened with the Bruins listed as a -210 home favorite and the Kraken a +170 road dog. We’ve seen Boston get steamed up from -210 to -225, signaling pro money laying the big chalk with the Bruins. Home favorites with a line move in their favor are 156-88 (64%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more off a win are 59-24 (71%). Boston is 26-5 as a favorite and 19-0-3 at home. The Bruins have the better offense (3.9 GPG vs 3.7 GPG) and the better defense (allowing 2.2 GPG vs 3.1 GPG). Boston enjoys a big rest advantage, having not played since January 8th while the Kraken last played January 10th. Boston also the better power play (28% vs 22%) and superior penalty kill (86% vs 70%). The total is 6.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling some under liability and a possible drop down to 6. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Ottawa Senators (-160, 6.5) at Arizona Coyotes 

The Senators (18-19-3) have lost two straight and just got blanked by the Predators 3-0, losing outright as -120 home favorites. On the flip side, the Coyotes (13-22-5) have lost six straight and just fell to the Sharks 4-2, losing as +120 home dogs. This line opened with Ottawa listed as a -145 road favorite and Arizona a +125 home dog. Sharps have laid the wood with the Senators, steaming Ottawa up from -145 to -160. Road favorites vs teams who missed the playoffs the previous season are 86-48 (64%) this season. Road favorite "sweet spot" teams between -150 and -200 are 47-23 (67%) this season. The Senators are 11-8 as a favorite. The Coyotes are 12-25 as a dog. Ottawa has the superior offense (3 GPG vs 2.8 GPG) and defense (3.2 GPG allowed by 3.7). The Senators enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on January 9th vs the Coyotes last played on January 10th. Arizona will also be playing their third game in 5 days. Ottawa is better with the man advantage (27% vs 20%) and on the penalty kill (83% vs 74%). 

 

10 p.m. ET: Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights (-130, 6.5)

The Panthers (19-19-4) have won three of their last four games and just upset the Avalanche 5-4, winning outright as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Knights (27-13-2) just saw their three game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Kings 5-1 and losing outright as -150 home favorites. This line opened with Vegas listed as a -125 home favorite and Florida a +110 road dog. We’ve seen the Knights creep up from -125 to -130, signaling pro money backing VGK at home at a relatively short number. Home favorites with a line move in their favor in a non-conference game are 67-33 (67%) this season. VGK is 21-11 as a favorite and 12-20 at home. Florida is 3-5 as a dog and 9-13-1 on the road. Both teams are averaging 3.3 GPG on offense. The difference comes on defense where Florida is giving up 3.5 GPG compared to just 2.9 for Vegas. The Knights enjoy a massive rest advantage, having been off since January 7th while the Panthers last played January 10th.