Tuley: It’s Selection Sunday but Best Bets in NHL, XFL; Saturday recaps

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Sunday Best Bets, Saturday Recaps

Saturday was a day of juggling sports and horse racing action in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we moved closer to Selection Sunday. (And I would normally say that I hope everyone remembered to set their clocks ahead an hour, but the point is moot for the most part as I think I’m down to two clocks that don’t adjust automatically.)
The day started great for yours truly as the Red Wings (who we took at +1.5 +125 and +300 on the money line vs. the Bruins) jumped out to a 2-0 lead. We weren’t counting our money, but felt pretty confident as it was still 2-0 more than halfway through the 2nd period. However, the Bruins rallied to tie the game before the end of the period and then took a 3-2 lead with 6:06 left to put our puck-line play in jeopardy. Fortunately, the Red Wings held on to win that bet for a nice overall profit to start the day.
In addition, I was also off to a nice start in the NTRA/NHC Charity Challenge that was part of the National Horseplayers Championship taking place at the Horseshoe (formerly Bally’s) as I was in 9th place early.
However, the good feelings didn’t last as my top play on Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M was never close and I wasn’t able to cash another big winner to keep me in contention in the charity event. Later, I lost my Jets-Panthers First-Period Under 1.5 +125 play in the NHL as the Jets led 3-1 after the opening 20 minutes, and then I also lost my XFL play on the San Antonio Brahmas +3 at the Seattle Sea Dragons as they were in it most of the game and covering vs. the closing line of +5 at 9-6 until Seattle added a late spread-covering TD in the 15-6 victory.

 

In addition, I went 0-for-3 with my horse racing plays in my “Team Tuley Thoroughbred Takes” column that runs every Saturday (except for next Saturday as we’re taking it off with everyone’s attention on March Madness).
My friend Ed Sehon (aka Mr. Ed from his VSiN.com/horse-racing/ columns when he’s doing his solo projects) carried our team as he has gave out three winners – Tap Dance Fever ($9.40) in Tampa Bay’s 5th race, Talk of the Nation ($4.40) in Tampa Bay’s 7th race and Far Bridge ($5.10) in Gulfstream’s 9th race – while also having Exactas that paid $36.20 and $17.80 with those first two winners.
But let’s get back to the sports side of the book and recap the rest of Saturday’s action and then look for plays on Sunday. I don’t have any college basketball plays as Penn State and Memphis have worked themselves solidly into the NCAA field and there aren’t any other bid-stealers alive in today’s games (not that we fared that great this conference tournament season as I went 8-8 ATS after a promising 5-1 start).

Saturday Recaps

NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS with Thunder-Pelicans closing pick-’em. The Mavericks (+8) covered in 112-108 loss at the Grizzlies. The upsets were by the Kings (+4 in 128-119 win at the Suns) and Magic (+2.5 in 126-114 win vs. the Heat). Road teams went 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS. Overs led 7-3.

More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 654-343 SU with 16 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 495-479-23 ATS (50.8%). Home teams still lead 596-417 SU and 514-478-21 ATS (51.8%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 508-490-15 (50.9%).

CBB: No. 8 Arizona (-1.5) beat No. 2 UCLA 61-59 late Saturday to win the Pac-12 Conference Championship Game here in Las Vegas, but it wasn’t an upset. No. 21 Duke (-3) beat No. 13 Virginia 59-49 for the ACC title and it also wasn’t an upset. No. 7 Texas (+2) upset No. 3 Kansas 76-56 for the Big 12 title. No. 6 Marquette (-2) beat No. 15 Xavier 65-61 in the Big East.

NHL: Faves went 10-5 Saturday with the upsets by the Golden Knights (+175 in 4-0 win at Hurricanes), Predators (+155 in 2-1 shootout win at Kings), Capitals (+115 in 5-1 win at Islanders), Jets (+110 in 5-4 OT win at Panthers) and Canucks (+105 in 5-2 win vs. Senators). Road teams went 9-6. Unders led 8-6-1 with the push in the Blues’ 5-2 win at Blue Jackets with a betting total of 7 goals.

XFL: Houston Roughnecks routed the Orlando Guardians 44-16 and easily covered as 9-point road faves to kick off XFL Week 4 (game flew Over the betting total of 44 points). In the nightcap, the Seattle Sea Dragons beat the San Antonio Brahmas 15-6 and covered as 5-point road faves (stayed way Under 41).

More XFL: Faves swept 2-0 SU and ATS Saturday to improve to 11-3 SU and 8-5-1 ATS overall. Home/road teams split 1-1 SU and ATS Saturday. Home teams lead 8-6 SU overall, but road teams lead 7-6-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 1-1 Saturday and remain at .500 overall at 7-7.

Sunday NHL Best Bets

Wild-Coyotes 1P Under 1.5 +100: In retrospect, I wish I had used the Red Wings +1.5 +125 as my top play yesterday as I liked it better than Vanderbilt, but I guess I felt peer pressure to put more emphasis on college basketball. The same went for Friday with the Spurs +12 instead of Mississippi State. Anyway, let’s return to the ice with the 1P Under here as the Wild is still the top team at 40-25 (61.5%) and a combined 53.5% with the Coyotes. That should be around -115 but we’re getting +100 overnight and hopefully more if we shop around.

Senators-Flames 1P Over 1.5 -150 / Predators-Ducks 1P Over 1.5 -120 (parlay pays +206): This isn’t as strong as some of our recent 1P Over parlays, but it does pay better than 2-1 so we’ll take a shot (and hope the teams take a ton – and convert them into goals!). The Senators and Flames combine to go 78-52 (60%) with 1P Overs while the Predators and Ducks are 75-53 (58.6%).

Sunday XFL Best Bet

Vegas Vipers-DC Defenders Under 41.5: I don’t like either XFL underdog on Sunday, but I believe there’s value in the Under in the last game of the weekend. The DC Defenders are properly named as they rely on their defense (entered Week 4 allowing the second-lowest points per game in the league at 17.3) and the running game. Vegas has the second-highest points per game allowed at 23.3, but DC should be content to ground and pound to keep the clock running and shorten the game.