EPL Best Bets and Predictions April 18-19
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Brentford vs. Fulham
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Arsenal lost last week, and with Manchester City winning, both sides now have the title in their own hands. That is due to them meeting at the Etihad on Sunday in a monumental Premier League clash.
Although I think Pep’s men win, I can’t be taking them at the prices, so my three best bets come from fixtures elsewhere. However, my best bet does have implications for City’s Erling Haaland as I am backing Igor Thiago to score in Brentford vs Fulham.
The Bees’ top scorer is +105 to get on the scoresheet in the early Saturday kickoff, and I just think that is the wrong price. This is a player who has smashed in 21 league goals for his club and now sits just one behind Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot (top goalscorer).
Last month, the 24-year-old earned his first call-up to the Brazil squad for their friendlies with France and Croatia. That puts him in a good place to make the final cut to feature in this summer’s World Cup.
He now knows he has six games left to make a case to be the man to lead the line in that famous yellow number 9 shirt of Brazil. What more incentive do you need to go all out for more goals against a side in Fulham who have only kept two clean sheets in 19 road trips across all competitions this season?
An in-form striker with everything to play for should not be priced at plus money in such a fixture. He is his club’s talisman, on penalties, and has a phenomenal record of 12 goals in 16 appearances on home soil this term.
He has scored six goals in his last six appearances for club and country, including opening his international account with a goal against Croatia. Last weekend, he hit both goals on a return to domestic action in Brentford’s 2-2 tie at home to Everton.
Last weekend, Fulham went to Liverpool, and a terribly out-of-form Mo Salah, who has 15 fewer goals than Thiago, was priced at -160 to score any time. Haaland would be priced around -275 in this matchup, yet we are getting plus money about his rival.
The price is simply wrong, and we must take the value.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Fulham – Igor Thiago to score at +105.
Tottenham vs. Brighton
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Tottenham are now minus money to get relegated, but at -118, I still think that offers value. If you changed their name to a “smaller” team and with their form, then that price would be more like -600.
It’s all gone wrong for the North Londoners, who are still searching for their first league win of 2026. Their last home game saw them embarrassed 3-0 by relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, a seventh time conceding at least twice in their last eight league games on home soil.
Next up are a Brighton side on a brilliant run of form, winning five of their last six games. That has put them back in contention for qualifying for a European tournament next season, something their owner Tony Bloom really wants to achieve.
Spurs have been impacted by injuries all season but have now lost their captain Cristian Romero for the remainder of the campaign due to a knee injury picked up in the 1-0 defeat at Sunderland last weekend. All of which puts the Seagulls on a different level right now.
They visited Burnley last weekend as -160 favorites and duly obliged by winning 2-0, but we are getting +145 here against a side one place better off than the Clarets, but in worse form and with a worse home record across the season. In fact, Tottenham have the worst home record in the league, only winning two of their 16 games and losing 10.
Since that last home loss, former Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi has replaced Igor Tudor as head coach. The Italian left the Amex under a cloud, having criticized the club’s transfer policy, ironic with Tony Bloom’s operation one of the best run in soccer, while his new employers certainly are not.
This +145 is a massive price and seemingly hasn’t considered that Tottenham are in the relegation zone but showing no fight. Putting that into context, Brighton were -110 to win this fixture last season and romped to a 4-1 victory.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Brighton – Brighton to win at +145.
Newcastle vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
This week, Andoni Iraola announced he would be leaving Bournemouth when his contract expires in three months, a move that will surely spark a scramble for his services both in England and across Europe. One of those clubs said to be interested is Newcastle, where he takes his current team to play this weekend.
Last weekend, I watched the Cherries at Arsenal, and despite everyone saying how bad the league leaders were, I thought the visitors were brilliant. The whole setup was excellent, well-drilled, full of energy, and they knew exactly what the game plan was before carrying it out to perfection.
I left the Emirates thinking how much I have underrated both Iraola and his side. Incredible when you consider they lost 80% of their first-choice defense last summer and their best player, top scorer Antoine Semenyo, in January.
It has made no difference, and Bournemouth are currently on an incredible unbeaten run of 12 league games. All while Newcastle have lost their last three and only have one win in five at home, form which is usually unheard of.
Big money signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa have both flopped, with neither scoring since December. Injuries and fixture congestion have certainly impacted them, and they appear a tired outfit who are looking forward to a summer break.
Yet it is Newcastle priced at -109 with all the value laying with the visitors at +265. So much so, we can play them on a +0.5 handicap, meaning we get the tie on side as well, and at -113, it is a price I cannot understand.
Eddie Howe has a terrible record against his former club, and he faces them now under the most pressure since taking the St James Park hot seat. Newcastle haven’t won this fixture in the league since 2020, a run of seven games, with just one win in nine across all competitions.
I am taking that run to be extended here.
EPL Best Bet: Newcastle vs Bournemouth – Bournemouth +0.5 Asian Handicap at -113.
