2023 Wimbledon Tennis Betting Guide: Expert predictions, tips and best odds

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2023 Wimbledon Tennis Betting Guide: Expert predictions, tips and best odds

Dive into our comprehensive Wimbledon tennis betting guide, where our expert provides detailed predictions, valuable tips, and the latest odds for this prestigious tennis tournament at the All England Club in London, England. Stay ahead of the game with our analysis, and increase your chances of winning your bets on this year’s Wimbledon matches.

 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for all 2023 Wimbledon best bets

Introduction to Wimbledon Tennis Betting

Overview of Wimbledon tournament:

Wimbledon is arguably the most prestigious of the four Grand Slams, as it has 146 years of history and the all-white dress code gives it a classy feel. The grass-court surface also feels somewhat exclusive compared to the rest, as there are two hard-court majors and even the clay-court tournament at Roland Garros is preceded by a lengthy clay-court season. The grass-court season is only a month or so long, so it’s over in a flash. Heading into this year’s event, it’s hard not to shine a light on Novak Djokovic. The Serbian has won each of the last four installments on the men’s side, and he’s the betting favorite to win a fifth Wimbledon title in a row. He’s also looking to improve his stranglehold on the Grand Slam title, as he is looking for the 24th major of his career.

Why Wimbledon is popular among bettors:

All four Grand Slams are big for sports bettors, even ones that aren’t huge tennis fans. And the fact that Wimbledon takes place in early July only makes it more popular. There isn’t much to bet on at the moment, as these are the real dog days of summer. So, if you don’t want to just continue betting on baseball, why not head over to the beautiful grass courts in London? There’s going to be some high-quality tennis played over the next few weeks, and tennis can be a very profitable sport to bet on if you’re doing your research.

Types of bets available for Wimbledon:

With Wimbledon, bettors will have the ability to bet straights, parlays and player props all throughout the tournament. There are also plenty of futures markets available, which gives you the chance to bet on things like the outright winner or the winner of a specific quarter. Live betting is also an option in tennis. 

Expert Predictions and Match Analysis

Top seeds and their performance trends:

The top seeds on the men’s side are Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic. The gap between those two players isn’t all that large, but an argument can be made that it is on grass. Djokovic has won 85.8% of the ATP-level grass-court matches that he has played on his career, so his dominance on this surface isn’t all that different from Rafael Nadal’s on clay. That’s why you’re seeing Djokovic as a heavy favorite to win this tournament. However, while Djokovic has taken the last few weeks to rest after winning the French Open, Alcaraz went out and won a big title at Queen’s Club. That was big for the Spaniard, as he hasn’t played much grass-court tennis in his career. Queen’s Club also happens to play a little faster than Wimbledon, so it was impressive he was able to win that. His game might translate a bit better to Wimbledon. However, it’s fair to wonder whether Alcaraz can beat Djokovic in a major right now. His body failed him when the two met in the French Open semifinals a couple of weeks ago. 

On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win this title. But Swiatek’s best result at Wimbledon is a fourth round finish in 2021. She’s relatively unproven on grass and that makes this thing a little more open on the women’s side. The player with the second-best odds to win is Elena Rybakina, who is the defending Wimbledon champion. Rybakina’s big serve and powerful game makes her a natural fit on this surface, but she has been dealing with some illnesses over the past few weeks. That has made it hard on her to prepare for this event. The only player close to the other two in odds is Aryna Sabalenka, who also has a game that should be rather potent on grass.

Potential upsets and dark horses:

When looking for some longer shots to win this tournament, some of the players that stand out are Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the men’s side. Fritz’s big serve and powerful strokes make him a very good fit for the grass. The American actually made it to the quarterfinals of this event last year, and he feels like a player that should do a lot of damage at Wimbledon throughout his career. His size and ability to move are just hard to ignore, as those things are valuable on this surface. As for Rune and Tsitsipas, the talent is just too tough to lay off of. Rune hasn’t done much of anything on grass in his career, but he’s arguably a top-five player in the world and his odds to win this thing are far too favorable. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas is just a very good all-around player and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do damage on this surface. He has one of the best serves on tour and that alone gives him a shot. It’s also going to be hard for opponents to target his weak backhand with high, spin-heavy shots on the grass. 

On the women’s side, you can do a lot worse than backing Jelena Ostapenko and Donna Vekic here. Ostapenko just won a grass-court title in Birmingham and she has been to the semifinals at Wimbledon before. Her powerful strokes make her a tough player to beat on grass when she is on her game. This is not a surface that makes life easier on defensive players, as the ball moves fast and bounces very low. As for Vekic, the Croatian is fresh off a run to the final in Berlin, where she earned wins over Rybakina and Maria Sakkari. She also pushed Petra Kvitova, a very strong grass-court player, in the final. Not many players are better than Vekic on this surface.

Impact of playing surface and conditions on match outcomes:

Whereas big servers were at a disadvantage at Roland Garros, it’s crucial to have a good serve at Wimbledon. These surfaces play so fast that it can be a massive advantage for players that make a high percentage of their first serves. This surface also favors players that can end points quickly. You simply have to be an elite mover in order to play defense on this surface, so you aren’t going to want to bet on many players that have a grinding mentality. 

Best Betting Tips for Wimbledon Success

Analyzing player form and head-to-head statistics:

It’s going to be pretty difficult to utilize recent form heading into this tournament. There really isn’t much of a grass-court season, so players don’t have a lot of time to show their stuff before Wimbledon. Instead, you should look at statistics like hold percentage and break percentage. You want somebody that holds at a high clip and breaks at a high clip. It’s very unlikely that the winner of this tournament doesn’t do both at a high level. You should also look back to recent installments of this tournament to see how players have performed at Wimbledon in the past. 

Factors to consider when betting on specific match types (e.g. men’s singles, women’s singles, doubles):

One thing to make sure to remember early on is that this tournament follows a best-of-five format for the men, like every other major does. So, if you see higher totals and spreads than you’re used to, that’s the reason why. But it’s business as usual on the women’s side, as the WTA always sticks with the best-of-three format. Another thing to remember is that the final set in majors is now decided by a 10-point tiebreaker, if needed. 

Odds Comparison: Finding the Best Wimbledon Betting Lines

Top sportsbooks offering Wimbledon tennis odds:

All of the major sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook, are going to have lines available for Wimbledon. Make sure you sign up for as many of them as you can before betting on this event. 

Tips for comparing odds and finding value bets:

It’s just important to have as many options as possible with tennis. You’ll find different lines everywhere, so make sure you’re shopping around and getting the best price. Also, make sure you check out the different spread options. You can find the same player at -4.5 games in one spot and -3.5 games in another. The same goes for player props. Some sportsbooks have more options than others. Make sure you familiarize yourself with them, as betting on props can be a very profitable strategy in tennis. 

Live Betting on Wimbledon Tennis Matches

Benefits of live betting during Wimbledon:

Live betting at Wimbledon isn’t the same as it is at the French Open. It’s not nearly as easy to break serve on grass as it is on clay, so you can’t exactly target players that go down breaks here. But you will have plenty of opportunities to bet live, so it’s always important to keep an eye out for good prices.  

Key in-play betting strategies and tips:

At this tournament, the best way to bet live is to just look for players that you liked before a match to go down early. Talent generally tends to win out in the end no matter what the surface is. You can also potentially make some money by betting the over on games in individual sets. Holding serve is a lot easier on grass than it is anywhere else. So, there should be some lengthy sets throughout this tournament. 

Factors to monitor during live betting (e.g. player momentum, fatigue, injury concerns):

The best players in the world tend to be in better shape than their opponents. That’s why you don’t see as many upsets on the men’s side of things during Grand Slams. It’s hard to find energy in the fourth and fifth sets, and that’s why you have such a good shot at making money with live betting at majors. So, keep an eye on high-ranked players as often as you can. If they go down early, especially on the men’s side, you should try and back them at better prices. 

Boost Your Betting Strategy with Wimbledon Specials and Promotions

How to take advantage of special offers and boosts:

If you have any free bets to use, Wimbledon can be a great place to take advantage of them. Betting on futures is one of the best ways to utilize those free bets, as you can take a risk-free shot on a player with great odds. Backing one of the players we called attention to earlier can be a great play here. All it would take is a deep run from one of them before you can start hedging later on for guaranteed profit. 

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Zach has been writing about betting since he was a student at the University of Wisconsin, which is when he started working with StatFox — and contributing to the weekly Platinum Sheet. His work has since been featured for brands like Covers, Sports Illustrated and Tennis Channel. Zach is extremely passionate about the NBA, but he does a bit of everything and has found a niche as a tennis handicapper. Outside of work, Zach likes nothing more than shooting around in an empty gym or watching bad comedies.