Looking for the best bets for the ATP Finals on Monday, November 16? We break down the day’s matches, analyzing form, playing styles, and the odds to find our favorite picks for the action in Turin, Italy. Here’s what we’re betting on — and why.
MORE: Check out Gill Alexander’s ATP Finals best bets on our Pro Picks page!
Frances Tiafoe vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I’d be surprised if Alcaraz loses this match, but I wouldn’t be stunned if it’s closer than expected. The courts look to be playing rather quick, which should allow Tiafoe to take advantage of his big serve. On top of that, Alcaraz is dealing with some stomach discomfort, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100%.
Tiafoe has also played Alcaraz extremely close in the past. They haven’t met since 2024, but their most recent encounter saw the American push the Spaniard to five sets at Wimbledon.
Tiafoe doesn’t have the overall toolkit to beat a player like Alcaraz consistently, but he does have irrational confidence. He believes he can beat anyone, anywhere. That belief matters against Alcaraz, because a lack of it defeats most players long before they ever step on court opposite the seven-time Grand Slam champion.
Bet: Over 20.5 Games (-130)
NOTE: I like Medvedev to beat Cobolli in the other match, and I have some action on the Russian to win this event. Even so, if I weren’t already pulling for Medvedev to win the tournament, I might have been on Cobolli. I’ve mentioned this a few times this year, but it always feels like there’s sharp money fading Cobolli, and we regularly see him come through in those matches. It isn’t normal to see the No. 6 player in the world at +288 against the No. 5. Cobolli won their only previous meeting this year, but that was on clay, and these conditions definitely favor Medvedev. Still, the pricing is strange.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
