Nitto ATP Finals tennis best bets: Tsitsipas vs. Sinner, plus tournament futures – Sunday, November 12
There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Nitto ATP Finals should help us go out with a bang. Eight of the ATP Tour’s top players are in Turin, Italy for this year-end event, including Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev. The players are split into two groups of four, and there will be round-robin play amongst the two of them. The players with the two best records in each group will go to the semifinals, where they’ll then compete in a single-elimination format for the final big prize of the year. With that in mind, I’ll be providing you with daily tennis bets for the next week, and that starts with a play on Sunday, November 12. I also included two of my futures plays for this tournament at the bottom of this article.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner
Tsitsipas was 5-1 against Sinner before losing to the Italian in Rotterdam earlier in the year. Sure, Sinner has had a tremendous 2023 season, but I don’t think that erases a ton of history between these two players. That makes it hard to come to grips with Tsitsipas being such a big underdog in this match, especially with this being an indoor hard-court event. A player with a big serve and a huge forehand has a very high floor in conditions like these, and that makes me like his chances in this matchup. Even if Sinner does emerge with a win, I just don’t see him doing it in straight sets. There should be at least one tiebreaker in this match, and that would give Tsitsipas a good shot at winning a set. So, I’m taking the Greek star to win at least one set, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. I think Tsitsipas is playing some great tennis right now and has a good chance of making the semifinals here.
Bet: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-150 – 2 units) & Tsitsipas ML (+195)
Nitto ATP Finals Futures
Alexander Zverev To Win Red Group (+500 – 0.5 units): I don’t know if I actually think Zverev will win the group. He’s competing with Alcaraz, Medvedev and Rublev in round-robin play. However, I don’t think much separates Zverev and guys like Medvedev and Rublev. In fact, he beat Medvedev when the two met in Cincinnati earlier in the year. Zverev is also 5-4 in nine career meetings with Rublev. With that in mind, I think it’s just a little crazy to see him with these odds. I just don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he finds a way to beat those guys, and it’s not like Alcaraz is coming into this event in great form. The Spaniard is very vulnerable right now, which is why this group has the potential to be chaotic. That said, I think it’s worth throwing a little something on Zverev. His big serve gives him a chance in any match, especially in an indoor hard-court setting.
Novak Djokovic To Win The Nitto ATP Finals (+140 – 2 units): With Alcaraz having struggled towards the end of the season, there’s really nobody that has shown they can step up and challenge Djokovic right now. Even after taking nearly two months off, Djokovic came back and won the Rolex Paris Masters last week. He is firmly at the top of the men’s game and he is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Djokovic badly wants to break every record he can while he’s still playing elite tennis, and that’s hard to ignore in the final big event of the year. This is another chance for Djokovic to prove he’s head and shoulders above the rest, and I think he’ll run through the field with very little turbulence.
Holger Rune +4.5 Games (-150 – 2 units) vs. Novak Djokovic
2023 Overall Record: 312-281 (+60.41 units)