The ATP and WTA Tours are back on hard courts, and the action is about to ramp up as the road to the 2026 US Open gets underway. With the summer swing now in full flow, this stretch is all about players sharpening their timing, adjusting to the conditions, and building momentum before New York. There’s a busy slate this week, giving us plenty to dig into across both tours as the hard-court season starts to take shape. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then I’ll roll out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the Mubadala DC Open for Friday, July 31.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alex Michelsen vs. Taylor Fritz
Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti
The Friday card in DC really isn’t for me, so I’m just taking a small stab at a plus-money parlay. This one calls for Fritz to defeat Michelsen and Jodar to beat Musetti.
The first match should be very interesting. Michelsen beat Fritz in straight sets at Indian Wells this year, improving to 2-0 against his older compatriot. Michelsen’s two-handed backhand is a thing of beauty, so he holds up very well from that wing against Fritz. That’s somewhat new to Fritz, who generally has a major advantage with his two-hander. However, Fritz still has more overall weapons than Michelsen, and he’ll be eager to pick up a victory over him. Fritz is also playing much better now than he was earlier in the year. Pretty much everything you can look at to compare these two players favors Fritz, including 2026 Elo Rating. Fritz is up at 1973.1 in a down season, while Michelsen is down at 1842.4.
In the other match, I like Jodar to win. I still think the Italian is the better overall player, but he didn’t look great in a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 win over Aleksandar Vukic last match. That’s a bad sign heading into this one, as Jodar packs a similar punch and has way more overall game. Jodar comes into this match humming, as he earned a straight-set win over Arthur Fils in the opening round and backed it up by wiping the court with Kei Nishikori. At this stage in Musetti’s comeback from injury, beating Jodar feels like a tough ask.
PARLAY: Fritz ML & Jodar ML (+118)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
