Tennis Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Indian Wells – Wednesday, March 13

Zachary Cohen runs through his tennis best bets for the Indian Wells action on Wednesday, March 13th.

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Daniil Medvedev returnes to Sebastian Korda during their third-round match at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif., on Monday, March 11, 2024.

Indian Wells best bets for Wednesday, March 13th

It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. For the next couple of days, the ATP and WTA Tours will be at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players were in the field for this event, and you won’t want to miss the rest of this tournament. With that in mind, keep reading for my best bets for Wednesday, March 13th. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I’ll occasionally add picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

 

2023 Record: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Record: 143-170 (-7.38 units)

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev was broken seven times in his win over Sebastian Korda on Monday. It’s honestly crazy that he was able to escape with a victory, as he wasn’t playing particularly well from the baseline either. But I think he’ll run out of luck when he takes on Dimitrov in the Round of 16. Dimitrov didn’t drop a set in wins over Alexandre Muller and Adrian Mannarino. And his hold percentage is up at a ridiculous 90.4% in 2024. Medvedev is one of the best returners in the men’s game, so Dimitrov won’t be perfect when it’s time to serve. But I think he’s capable of doing well enough to take advantage of this version of Medvedev. Not only is Dimitrov capable of serving up aces or unreturnable balls, but he’s also amazing at setting himself up for his next shot.

Overall, I’m banking on Dimitrov having an easier time holding than Medvedev here. He has been comfortable serving with these brutal conditions all week. And I like the way the Bulgarian matches up with last year’s BNP Paribas Open runner-up from the baseline. Medvedev’s flat, powerful strokes are extremely dangerous on hard courts, but his lack of variety hurts him on slower hard courts like these — and clay courts. So, Dimitrov can get an edge on him by utilizing his wonderful slice backhand and also playing with more shape overall.

Dimitrov also happened to beat Medvedev when the two met in Paris in November. That was an indoor hard-court setting, which is supposed to favor Medvedev significantly. So, Dimitrov should be confident that he can beat him again in these more favorable Indian Wells conditions. Dimitrov also beat him in this very tournament in 2021.

Bet: Dimitrov ML (+156 – 2 units)

Gael Monfils vs. Casper Ruud
Elise Mertens vs. Coco Gauff

I really like Ruud to beat Monfils in Indian Wells, but I’m not willing to take it at north of -200 odds. The game/set spreads are also a pass for me, as Monfils is a relentless competitor and won’t go down without a fight. With that in mind, I’m parlaying Ruud and Gauff to win on the moneyline. That makes things a lot more reasonable and I don’t think there’s too much risk involved. Gauff is 3-0 in her head-to-head series with Mertens, and she has beaten her on all three surfaces. Their 2022 meeting at the French Open is the one I care about most. That was a 6-4, 6-0 win for Gauff, who was too much for Mertens on a slower surface. I don’t see that changing in the desert.

As for Ruud, I just love the way that he’s playing right now. Things aren’t always pretty with the Norwegian, but he’s 15-4 to start the 2024 season. That 78.9% win percentage is the best of his career, by far. And while I know it’s a small sample size, it just feels like Ruud is a lot more confident now. He is playing some fun, aggressive tennis, which is a bit of a change from previous seasons. He also seems to be coming out with close victories a little more often. Now, Ruud faces a very talented player in Monfils, but he’s also 37 years old and is coming off a grueling three-set win over Cameron Norrie. And that was right after a physical three-set match against Hubert Hurkacz the round before. At some point, Monfils is bound to run out of steam. Ruud is a very smart player that will do everything he can to make Monfils work and force him into mistakes.

PARLAY: Ruud/Gauff ML (-111 – 2 units)

Yue Yuan vs. Daria Kasatkina

Yuan has been scorching hot over the last few weeks, but she could run into some real trouble here. Yuan has had the good fortune of playing a lot of mistake-prone players this week. And she definitely deserves a lot of credit for getting by them. But Kasatkina plays a clean game from the baseline. And even when she does go big, she is capable of hitting with serious topspin and accurately hitting her spots. That should allow her to find some success against Yuan from the baseline. And an edge along the baseline is really all I care about here.

Kasatkina can definitely struggle with her serve, and double faults have been a problem for her in the past. But these Indian Wells conditions make it hard on everybody to serve. So, I’d rather be on the player that can return at an elite level. That’s Kasatkina. The Russian is sixth in the WTA in break percentage over the last 52 weeks, doing so 44.8% of the time. Kasatkina is also a player that can generally be counted on to handle her business. She’s 17-2 in her last 19 matches against opponents outside of the Top 40.

Bet: Kasatkina -2.5 Games (-126 – 2 units)

Added Plays

Terence Atmane ML (+120 – 2 units) vs. Sebastian Ofner [Phoenix Challenger]

Tuesday’s Plays

Stefanos Tsitsipas -1.5 Sets (+125) vs. Jiri Lehecka

Marta Kostyuk ML (+126 – 1.5 units) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Alex De Minaur ML (-115 – 2 units) vs. Alexander Zverev

Angelique Kerber ML (+104 – 1.5 units) vs. Caroline Wozniacki

Yulia Putintseva Over 4.5 Games Won (-134) vs. Iga Swiatek

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