The ATP and WTA Tours are back on hard courts, and the action is about to ramp up as the road to the 2026 US Open gets underway. With the summer swing now in full flow, this stretch is all about players sharpening their timing, adjusting to the conditions, and building momentum before New York. There’s a busy slate this week, giving us plenty to dig into across both tours as the hard-court season starts to take shape. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then I’ll roll out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the Mubadala DC Open for Thursday, July 30.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Terence Atmane vs. Alejandro Tabilo
I thought this match was going to be on Wednesday, so forgive me if you’re seeing this write-up for the second time. But Atmane is coming off a tremendous 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Frances Tiafoe. The American came out playing some breathtaking tennis early on, but Atmane really raised his level. He was playing some remarkable first-strike tennis, which should trouble Tabilo on Wednesday. Atmane just has a super effective combination of a big first serve and a big first ball. He should have plenty of success with his serve-plus-one in this match, and then his return game should be impactful. Tabilo has a big first serve, but his second serve is very weak. He rolls them in without really finding precise locations, and Atmane should be able to tee off when he gets looks at them.
The fact that both players are lefty should also be noted. Tabilo likes to frustrate righties by hitting his big, heavy forehand to the backhand wing, but he’ll be finding a lefty forehand when he goes across the court.
Atmane is also just dangerous on hard courts. He had a mini-breakout at this time of year last season, so he’s probably picking up some confidence as we go.
Bet: Atmane ML (-118)
Anastasia Potapova vs. Diana Shnaider
Earlier this year, Shnaider earned a 6-1, 6-3 win over Potapova in Brisbane. However, despite that lopsided victory, Shnaider is only a short favorite to win this match. That’s also interesting considering she has a better ranking. This just feels like a match in which monitoring the VSiN betting splits page could make some sense, as there could be some sharp money on Potapova. And even if there isn’t, this is a match in which I’d rather have the underdog.
These are two players that can really hit the cover off the ball, but Potapova is a little more consistent and she also happens to be the better mover. As long as she’s doing a decent job of hitting targets on serve, there’s no reason she can’t beat this opponent — which she happened to do in Madrid in 2024.
I also like the fact that Potapova played an opening-round match here. She was able to get her feet wet in these conditions, but Shnaider will be playing her first hard-court match in months.
Bet: Potapova ML (+114)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
