The 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia (also known at the Italian Open) is in full swing at the Foro Italico in Rome. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Tuesday, May 12 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Dino Prizmic vs. Karen Khachanov
Rafael Jodar vs. Learner Tien
Prizmic has posted a TennisViz Performance Rating of 7.86 since the start of the Italian Open. That’s the 10th-highest mark in Rome thus far, and it’d be the 20th-best mark for the 2026 season in non-Slams. Prizmic is simply performing like a top-20 player, and his playing style should make Khachanov uncomfortable. Prizmic has elite court coverage, his backhand is good enough to hold up against Khachanov’s, and his all-court game is rapidly improving. All of that makes it hard not to like him against a struggling Khachanov. This the worst season Khachanov has had since 2017, and I’m not sure I see it changing all that soon. This is also a very sharp play, as Khachanov is the player that will be more commonly recognized by casual tennis bettors. Yet the Russian is available at some favorable plus-money odds. That makes me think the oddsmakers are hoping to trap people.
In the other match, I’m expecting Jodar to come through against Tien. This isn’t something that says where I stand when comparing these two players. I do believe that Jodar is a far superior prospect, but I know that’s a polarizing debate. But either way, Jodar has had way more success than Tien on clay, with the American’s movement and baseline consistency not playing up as well on the dirt. So, I’m using the red-hot Spaniard to get a better price on Prizmic.
PARLAY: Prizmic ML & Jodar ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Sorana Cirstea
I’m always pretty interested in backing Ostapenko at plus-money odds on slower clay. The Latvian is still an absolute punisher from the baseline, and playing in these conditions allows her the time she needs to track down shots and set up on the ball. Well, if you’re playing in a match against Ostapenko that is coming down to strictly ball-striking, it’s going to be a tough day at the office.
Of course, Cirstea has played some fantastic tennis in Rome so far, even beating Aryna Sabalenka in a great three-set match. But I do think that Cirstea will get frustrated with Ostapenko pushing her around the court. We have seen a few matches this year in which that style of play has worn on her over the course of a physical match.
Cirstea actually has won the last two matches between these two, but Ostapenko is 4-3 against her. One of those wins came in Rome, so the Latvian is 1-0 in one career clay meeting.
Bet: Ostapenko ML (+122)
