The 2026 US Open women’s semifinals arrive Thursday, September 10, with Arthur Ashe Stadium hosting two blockbuster matchups: Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina. Below, we break down the key betting angles, odds movement, matchup history, and tactical factors that could decide each semifinal at Flushing Meadows — along with our best bets for a pivotal night in New York.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Full disclosure: I won’t have anything on the Thursday matches. I have futures on Pegula and Gauff to win this event, and it’s too late in the tournament for me to be adding any positions. However, I do have leans for both matches.
In Pegula-Sabalenka, I genuinely like the American to keep things tight. So, if I had to play something, I’d go with my usual underdog plays of +1.5 sets and a sprinkle on the moneyline.
This used to be a completely one-sided matchup, as Sabalenka would pick Pegula apart. However, the American has gotten extremely comfortable taking her on. Pegula has won two of their last three matches, and she also took a set in the one loss. The American is just good about rushing Sabalenka’s baseline game, as Pegula takes the ball early, hits it flat, and hits it deep. Pegula is also capable of doing the same thing as a returner. When she has opportunities to get a racquet on the ball, she can send it deep in the court and make it tough for Sabalenka to hit plus-one winners. Pegula also has some real variation when it comes to mixing up the height and pace of her balls. She’s also constantly looking for ways to change the way the match is going. So, over the course of a best-of-three match, she’ll likely do a better job with her problem-solving ability.
Pegula will also have the crowd in her corner, which occasionally bothers Sabalenka. If it’s an insane atmosphere, we could see the Belarusian fall apart.
LEAN: Pegula +1.5 Sets (-164)
Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina
Both of these players had to dig deep in order to win their matches in the quarterfinals. Gauff pulled out a 2-6, 7-6 (7), 6-2 win over French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, saving two match points in the process. Earlier in the day, Rybakina held off Qinwen Zheng in a 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory. Now, we’ll get a showdown between two competitors that play nothing alike, and my lean here is on the American.
Rybakina beat Gauff in Toronto about a month ago, prevailing in a 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 match. Their only previous matchup happened to be a 6-4, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (3) win for Gauff in that same venue. That said, these two have split victories in two career meetings, so there hasn’t been much between them. But, playing in Arthur Ashe Stadium, I prefer Gauff’s ability to win from the back of the court.
Rybakina has an 83.0% hold rate on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, giving her a monumental advantage on serve in this one. Gauff’s hold percentage is down at 68.9% in that same span, and it’d likely be lower if she wasn’t an elite baseliner. However, Gauff has way more going for her from the back of the court, where she has elite speed and a backhand that should stand out as the best weapon on the court. Gauff is also one of the game’s most dangerous returners, so she should put plenty of pressure on Rybakina’s serve. I’d also expect that to be ramped up even more in this building, where Gauff’s home-court advantage is outrageous in big matches.
Rybakina also secured the world No. 1 ranking with her win over Zheng last round. Of course, winning a major is more important than achieving the top spot in the rankings, but you do have to wonder whether she’ll have the same hunger as her opponent.
LEAN: Gauff ML (-110)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
