MLB Best Bets Today June 15
Lots of baseball is on tap for Saturday, as all 30 teams take the field if Mother Nature is willing to cooperate. The A’s/Twins early start looks the most threatened by her rainy ways, but the thick, unstable air in Atlanta could yield some storms as well. For the most part, it looks like all systems go, though, and we do have our fair share of dome games with this current round of series.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 15:
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 9)
4:10 p.m. ET
It was a wild one at American Family Field last night, as the Reds outlasted the Brewers and also knocked around Freddy Peralta in the fifth inning. With their recent run, the Reds are now a game away from .500 and will try to get there today with Andrew Abbott on the bump against opener Jared Koenig and bulker Bryse Wilson.
The Brewers have had major issues with southpaws recently, posting a .221/.296/.317 slash over the last 30 days, so it should be a good matchup for Abbott. Also, as I talked about yesterday, the Brewers have hit sliders at an extremely good clip this season, but Abbott has a four-pitch mix and can almost completely shy away from the slide piece if he wants to. I expect we’ll see a fastball/changeup mix from him tonight and that should be a strong way to attack the Milwaukee lineup.
Abbott has a 3.28 ERA with a 3.42 xERA and a 4.64 FIP. The high FIP is a byproduct of a low strikeout rate and a high home run rate, but he’s mostly limited hard contact with a 31.4% Hard Hit% and a 7.5% Barrel%, both down significantly from last season.
Koenig has been solid with a 1.72 ERA and a 3.17 FIP over 31.1 innings. He’s started four times and maxed out at 1.1 innings, so this will still mostly be Wilson’s show. The Reds have been an above average offense against lefties over the last 14 and 30 days, so hopefully they can scratch something out.
Wilson checks in with a 4.19 ERA, 4.74 xERA, and a 4.98 FIP as he takes on a surging Reds lineup that ranks seventh in wRC+ against righties over the last 14 days. Basically, this lineup has been on a tear since TJ Friedl came back on May 29, as he has a .275/.393/.529 slash with a .404 wOBA and a 159 wRC+ in 61 PA since his return. He’s got 12 runs and 13 RBI in that span.
The Reds pen got a little more work in than the Brewers pen yesterday, but Cincinnati boasts a top-10 bullpen by both ERA and FIP. They’ve been solid and the team has been really solid of late, so I like the underdog price here.
Pick: Reds +110
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants (-148, 7.5)
4:05 p.m. ET
I’ll have a two-fer here in this one, as the Angels and the Giants do battle at Oracle Park. Oracle Park’s construction limits the impacts of wind, but there will be a stiff breeze blowing out throughout the game and it will actually strengthen as the day by the bay goes along.
We’ve got Patrick Sandoval and Keaton Winn in this one. Sandoval is a guy that I really, really like…if he was to be traded to another team. The year has not gone well for him with a 5.23 ERA, but he has a 3.73 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP, so he’s deserved a better fate. One big problem is that the Angels have one of the worst infield defenses in baseball, which is how he’s wound up with a .335 BABIP and a 63.5% LOB%.They rank 28th with -16 Outs Above Average. Only the Red Sox and Marlins are worse.
The Giants own a league-best 151 wRC+ against lefties over the last 30 days with a .291/.382/.494 slash and a .378 wOBA. For the full season, they rank sixth with a 116 wRC+. They’ve hit lefties extremely well and that’s why I like their 1st 5 Over 2.5 Team Total at +114 per DraftKings.
I’m also interested in the 1st 5 Over 4.5. This will be the second start back for Winn. He allowed seven runs on six hits in 4.1 innings of work last time out. Over his last four MLB starts, he has allowed 24 runs on 23 hits in 12.2 innings of work. In that span, he’s faced the Phillies, Rockies, Dodgers, and Rangers, so the Halos are a definite step down, but still. I don’t think I’m going to need a ton of help from them here with Sandoval against the Giants lineup.
Winn’s only rehab start on the IL came in the Arizona Complex League, so he was facing 18-20 year olds. I’m not terribly surprised that he got blasted in his return outing.
I realize the full game is 7.5 here and, as I mentioned, the wind is expected to pick up throughout the day. But, I think the relievers have a better chance than the starters here, so hopefully we get the runs early.
Picks: Giants 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120) & 1st 5 Over 4.5 (+114)
