Can the Chiefs Win Three Super Bowls in a Row?

Bart Starr couldn’t do it. Bob Griese couldn’t either. Neither could Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, John Elway, or Tom Brady. In the 2024 season, we will find out if Patrick Mahomes can win three Super Bowls in a row. Mahomes has already joined this elite class of quarterbacks, leading their team to two straight Super Bowl wins. Yet, no one has done three in a row. No one has won the triple crown. Why? Because it’s near impossible. It requires luck in so many different ways—from avoiding key injuries to the ball bouncing the right way. You might be lucky once, maybe twice, but we have never seen luck extend over three years. 

Both Brady and Mahomes have dominated the game the last ten seasons. From 2014-2018, Brady and the Patriots won three Super Bowls, played in four, and lost a conference championship game. Mahomes and the Chiefs from 2019 until present day have duplicated the Patriots success. Three Super Bowl wins, four appearances and a conference championship loss. Only Denver, the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Bucs have snuck into the Super Bowl win column besides the Patriots and Chiefs. Yet, neither team could do three in a row.  Is this the year we see history being made? Is this the year, we get a three-peat? 

 

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Last season. the Chiefs didn’t look like they had a chance in hell to repeat. On Christmas day, they were embarrassed by the Raiders at home. Mahomes threw a pick-six and had a costly fumble that resulted in another Raiders touchdown. The Raiders didn’t complete a pass in the second half, only had nine for the game, yet still won. Things looked beyond bleak for the Chiefs.

In the last four games of the season, they struggled to get 20 first downs in a game. In the last two games, they combined for 27 first downs, albeit they weren’t trying in Week 18. They had the appearance of a one-and-done team, not a team capable of winning four in a row come playoff time. Yet, they did. Come playoff time, getting 20 first downs wasn’t even the slightest problem. They did it with ease.  They found their rhythm, relied on their defense in most games, and when they needed a play, Mahomes delivered big time. As we often say, that was then and now is now. So now, are the Chiefs ready to be the first three-peat champion? 

In 2023, the Chiefs finished 15th in scoring and only had three games of over 300 yards passing. In Week 7 against the Chargers, they had their best day, gaining 415 yards through the air. Earlier vs. the Bears, they threw for 303 yards in a rout. It wasn’t until the Super Bowl that the Chiefs would break the 300-yard threshold and have their second-best passing day of the season, 325 yards, with 202 coming in the second half and overtime. All season, we kept waiting for the offense to jell and to cash some Over tickets, yet they were winning with their defense and timely offense. The Chiefs only scored over 31 points three times. They only missed two field goals all season, ironically, both inside of 40 yards, making all five 50-yard-plus kicks. Only the Packers scored more than 25 points on them, so their offense didn’t need to be highly explosive, it only needed to be effective—which it was, once they cut out the turnovers. 

This leads us to the critical point when handicapping the Chiefs: Are they the same team defensively?  Yes, I understand they have Mahomes, who is capable of winning games, but so was Brady, so was Elway, and so was Bradshaw. What allowed all of them to win two and prevent them from winning three wasn’t a decline in their play but rather a decline in some other element of their team. Therefore, when handicapping the Chiefs, it is vital to understand what the loss of L’Jarius Sneed might mean and who is going to fill that void. 

The Chiefs want to play man-to-man and pressure the passer. This season they will need to rely on a bunch of late round picks to play well—from Jaylen Watson a seventh-rounder in 2022, to Kamal Hadden who was a sixth in 2024, to Josh Williams, a fourth in 2022.  They are young with limited experience, both Watson and Williams started two games each in 2023. They combined for 11 passes broken up and neither had an interception. Watson is a tough tackler, willing to be aggressive when he is the force. But can he be as good as Sneed in coverage? They will be challenged. They will not get any help from the call sheet, and if the front isn’t dominating or the Chiefs are playing from in front, they will need to play at a high level. Can they? As Big Daddy (Huge Packer fan, my cousin and one-time guest on GM Shuffle) is known for saying, “We’ll see.”   

Steve Spagnuolo is a high-risk, high-reward coordinator who understands that with Mahomes under center, he can take chances. The Chiefs aren’t worried about playing from behind or having to be in the lead. They can adjust their style in the game, which gives them a great advantage. Spagnuolo also knows he is reliant on Justin Reid, his starting safety, to make the right checks and communicate to everyone so they avoid costly mistakes. 

The Chiefs allowed the fewest big plays of any team last year which is a testament to their communication skills, forcing their opponents to execute with consistency on each drive. Making this challenging is having to block defensive tackle Chris Jones on each play. Jones is their difference maker.  He is disruptive in both run and pass, and when he is playing at a high energy level, he forces the offense to account for him.  Spagnuolo does a good job of moving him around and not allowing his defense to become static which then creates the offense to adjust their schemes to provide help when blocking Jones.   

So, if the defense isn’t good, can the offense make up the difference? This logic, I’m not sold on. Their offensive line is still unsettled at the tackle position, where left tackle will be an open competition between Wayna Morris and second-round pick in 2024, Kingsley Suamataia. Their right tackle, Jawaan Taylor, isn’t a great player, even though he was paid to be their left tackle. His lack of foot speed, always relying on aligning in the backfield, makes the Chiefs offensive line look illegal on most plays. The main reason the Chiefs had to run the ball more last season than ever before was the offensive line, not the receivers.  Yes, the receivers weren’t good—but the line’s inability to protect consistently was causing Mahomes to turn the ball over and make uncharacteristic mistakes. Can this improve? Once again, we’ll see. 

As for the receivers, getting Xavier Worthy can provide help down the field. Although slight in build, (160 pounds), Worthy plays bigger than his size. What was fascinating in the 2024 draft was the Patriots were trying desperately to trade with the Bills for Worthy, yet the Bills took the Chiefs offer instead. Why would the Bills let Worthy go to their main competitor rather than send him to New England, even if the offer was slightly less? The Bills will claim the Chiefs offer was too good to pass, but do you really want to help them? Makes no sense. 

With Rashee Rice in limbo as for a pending suspension, Hollywood Brown being a good, not great player and Kadarius Toney being beyond inconsistent, the Chiefs are going to need to play a similar offensive style to last year.  They will miss Marquez Valdes-Scantling big play ability. He was effective in the playoffs. They will need to hope Worthy can provide the down-the-field plays, plus much more. Either way, Mahomes’s ability to make the second play, (the one after the first play breaks down) is what is the hardest to defend. When Mahomes moves around the pocket and throws on the move, the Chiefs offense becomes indefensible.   

For a two-time champion, the Chiefs have many questions to solve as the season begins. And they will need luck to be standing alone on top of the mountain at the conclusion of the 2024 season for them to become the first three-peat champion. As good as the Chiefs have been, and as great as Mahomes plays, I am not tempting history. There is a reason for no three-peats, and the 2024 version of the Chiefs haven’t given me any persuasive evidence to alter history. 

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