MNF Broncos vs. Bills Week 10 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Monday Night Football game. In Week 10, that game features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8 and then had a bye last week. So, they’re going to be rested and ready to go against a Bills team that is coming off a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Broncos vs. Bills preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Broncos vs. Bills
Date: Monday, November 13
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Broncos vs. Bills Spread
This is a very interesting matchup and it didn’t seem like it would be one a couple of weeks ago. However, Denver comes into this game after having won and covered in back-to-back weeks, and the team also had a bye week to get prepared for this one. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost three of its last five and hasn’t covered a spread since October 1. This Bills team is just trending in the wrong direction, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The hope for Buffalo will be that a return home, combined with an extra day of rest, helps the team get back on track. But Denver has had more time to get prepared and could present a lot of problems for Sean McDermott’s squad.
It’s just hard to ignore that the Bills have been one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of DVOA since the start of Week 5. The injuries on that side of the ball aren’t helping, but the execution also hasn’t been there. Broncos head coach Sean Payton should be able to come up with some ways to attack. Don’t be surprised if Denver running back Javonte Williams gets it going here. He’s coming off his best game of the season two weeks ago, as he rushed for 85 yards and had 13 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in a 24-9 win over the Chiefs. He is looking explosive again now that he has had some time to recover from his torn ACL. Russell Wilson has also quietly put together a season in which he has thrown for 1,613 yards with 16 touchdowns and only four picks. It hasn’t always been perfect for the 34-year-old, but he is avoiding costly mistakes and getting more and more comfortable in Payton’s offense. Wilson should make some big throws here.
Defensively, it’s a little concerning that the Broncos are last in the league in Defensive DVOA, especially considering the Bills offense is up at second in the league in Offensive DVOA. But Denver held Kansas City to nine points two weeks ago and has had time to get healthy and prepare for this Buffalo defense. So, I’d be surprised if the Broncos get lit up here.
It’s also worth noting that Payton’s teams are 26-12-1 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in his coaching career.
Broncos vs. Bills Total
I don’t love the Over or the Under in this game, but I’d lean towards this being a high-scoring game. I just don’t think the Bills defense can be trusted to get stops right now, so the Broncos should be able to move the ball and put up points after having an extra week to dissect the film. Meanwhile, the Bills offense is still very good and should do its part against a Broncos team that has been lousy defensively all season.
This also feels like a game in which the public will come in heavy on the Under. The Broncos have gone Under in three games in a row, while the Under has also hit in four of the last five games the Bills have played. It almost feels like Vegas is setting a trap by putting the number this high.
Broncos vs. Bills Player Props
Parlay Calculator | Player Prop Analyzer
Russell Wilson Over 208.5 Passing Yards
Wilson hasn’t thrown for 209 or more yards since October 1, but I like his chances of breaking out a little here. This Bills team just got absolutely shredded through the air last week, giving up 348 passing yards against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Burrow is obviously much better than Wilson at this point in their careers, but I do think Payton will find some ways for his quarterback to beat the beat-up Bills secondary in this one. Buffalo has given up at least 209 passing yards in five of its last six games, with quarterbacks like Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield both reaching that mark. Wilson isn’t quite as bad as those guys.
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills are just in a bad way defensively right now, so it’s hard to see them winning this by more than a touchdown. The Broncos had a lot of time to get themselves ready defensively, and I think Wilson and Williams will make just enough plays to keep this close. This is another primetime game that I’m playing as one of my Week 10 NFL best bets. This is a great spot for Denver, even in a tough road environment.
Bet: Broncos +7.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Broncos vs. Bills!
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