NFL Week 8 opening line report

October 23, 2023

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Taking a look at the NFL Week 8 schedule

We’re a week away from the midpoint of the 2023 NFL season and we’ve found out a lot over these first seven weeks. Some teams are really good, some teams are really bad, and most teams reside somewhere in the middle, where we’re going to have more variances in their outcomes and performances.

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The great equalizer in the NFL is always the spread, which pulls down the good teams and props up the bad ones, but there are still some teams that just look so unappetizing to bet on that it’s easy to skip over those games and not give them a second glance. At this point in the season, though, sometimes that’s where the value lies. There are clearly some teams like that this week, but the biggest takeaway to me in surveying Week 8 is that we have a lot of lines around -1 where the indication is that anything could happen.

We’ve still got 49ers vs. Vikings left for Week 7 Monday Night Football, but most of the focus is now on Week 8.

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Here are some Week 8 thoughts:

(odds as of 10/22, 8:45 p.m. PT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 42.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Bills have played two of the biggest “WTF?” games of the season. They absolutely pummeled the Dolphins a week after Miami hung 70 points in a game and then they just lost to the lowly Patriots this past week. The Buccaneers are 0-2 since the bye week and have really looked bad in both of those losses, so even with Buffalo off of an eye-catching performance in a bad way, this line is still north of a touchdown for Thursday Night Football. Buffalo will be an extremely popular teaser candidate paired with a variety of Sunday options.

The early forecast shows temps in the low 60s and no significant wind, so I’ll be curious to see where this spread and total end up moving.

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 41.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’m always excited to see where lines go when a player looks bad in a primetime spot. While Derek Carr wound up having a chance to tie the game late, much of the discourse on social media and in NFL circles was about how awful Carr looked for the Saints against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. Pair that with the Colts’ near-miss against Cleveland with 38 points against what was the top-ranked defense in the NFL and you get a flipped favorite situation.

To be fair, the Saints were only -1.5 on the lookahead line, so this isn’t a huge adjustment by any means. The Colts also very much got screwed by the officials in that Browns game and I think this line has a chance to go up as bettors settle in for the work week.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 46)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Cowboys, who won ugly over the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 6 to bounce back after a hideous performance against the 49ers in Week 5. The Cowboys now host the Rams in advance of the first of two games against the Eagles. The Rams hit the road for the first time since October 1 after three straight home games.

For Los Angeles, last week’s game against a good Pittsburgh defense wasn’t a good sign heading into this one, as Matthew Stafford managed only 14 completions and only found Cooper Kupp twice out of seven targets. This line is interesting because I think people remember Dallas more for that 49ers embarrassment than that Chargers win, so that could influence the market. On the flip side, the Rams have beaten the Colts and Cardinals since that Week 1 win against Seattle, so perception is low on them as well.

Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 41)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

This is my favorite game of the week from a betting standpoint because it is so interesting. Cleveland won, with some help from the men in stripes, but Deshaun Watson was hurt again and not put back in the game. In the postgame, Kevin Stefanski said that Watson was his QB going into the game against the Seahawks, but he looked awful until taking the big hit that knocked him out. The Browns defense also got exposed in a big way.

Seattle has a ton of skill guys and they’ve played well in two games since the bye, dominating the box score against the Bengals, but falling short in the red zone, and then comfortably beating Arizona. It is a long trip for Cleveland here, as they’ve only played road games in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. I think the market will side with Seattle here and I’d expect this line to go up to the key number of 3 and maybe even go through it.

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5, 44.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

It’s easy to understand why certain games are picked to be in primetime. This is one of them. Chicago and Los Angeles are huge TV markets and that matters a lot to NFL executives and their network partners. Unfortunately for us as fans, it means we get games like this sometimes. Then again, the Bears won with Tyson Bagent at QB in Week 7 and actually showed well defensively.

Granted, they aren’t facing Brian Hoyer this week. They’re facing Justin Herbert. They’re also facing Brandon Staley, a guy that bettors aren’t going to be rushing to back in a big favorite role. This is one of those games where I think it’s hard to find a side to like, but somebody will have to win and cover.

Early Line I Like for Week 8

Houston Texans (-3, 41.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Both teams are coming off of a bye here, but I would expect the Texans to look better with some extra prep time. CJ Stroud has been better than Bryce Young in every way imaginable. He’s working well with OC Bobby Slowik and head coach DeMeco Ryans. Meanwhile, Panthers head coach Frank Reich has found ways to throw shade at ownership and the front office about having Young instead of Stroud.

Young is still trying to grasp a lot of the basics at this stage, while Stroud and the Texans will likely have gone deeper into the playbook to find some new things that work. Houston’s defense has also been roughly league average, while Carolina’s has not been. It’s crazy to say this with two teams that were thought to be on equal footing coming into the season, but one team looks light years better and it’s the road favorite.