Super Bowl futures odds betting update
Of all the things that can prematurely wreck a Super Bowl futures wager, a quarterback injury tops the list. Still, a preseason injury to Joe Burrow has not discouraged the public from betting the Bengals.
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Burrow was carted off the practice field on July 27, when Cincinnati supporters feared the worst. It’s looking more like the best-case scenario is possible. According to several reports, Burrow’s calf injury is healing and he hopes to start the Bengals’ season opener at Cleveland.
“We’ve got a lot of money on the Bengals, and that’s one of the most popular teams,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said. “Burrow’s injury has not really changed anything.”
At 11/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Bengals are the fifth choice on the DraftKings board behind the Chiefs (+600), Eagles (+650), Bills (+900), and 49ers (10/1).
“It’s not going to be an easy road for the Bengals because that division is getting tougher,” Avello said.
In the AFC North, arguably the NFL’s toughest division top to bottom, Cincinnati is the +140 favorite, followed by Baltimore (+235), Cleveland (+400), and Pittsburgh (+500).
Burrow has led the Bengals to two straight AFC title games, including a Super Bowl loss after the 2021 season. It’s no surprise at all that Cincinnati and Kansas City, the defending Super Bowl champion, are drawing heavy betting action.
Avello and several other Las Vegas bookmakers are seeing steady support for two longer shots — Dallas (14/1) and the New York Jets (16/1).
“I’m seeing some money on the Cowboys, who are the best team every July and August,” said South Point book director Chris Andrews, who’s offering Dallas at 10/1 odds.
Andrews said he’s skeptical of the Cowboys, but he is “taking the Jets seriously.”
The betting public is buying into the storyline of an old quarterback being rejuvenated by moving to a new team, so Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have been hit hard all summer. DraftKings adjusted the Jets’ odds from 18/1 in June to 16/1 now.
“I understand why they would bet the Jets,” Avello said. “But I didn’t like Aaron Rodgers last year. Is this the new, improved Rodgers? I don’t know. I’m more concerned that the AFC East is so tough. When you look at the AFC, it looks like there are 10 or 12 teams that have a chance to win it this year.”
Rodgers, who turned 39 in December, failed to get Green Bay to the playoffs last season. He threw 12 interceptions, his highest total since 2008, and the Packers finished 8-9. Still, Rodgers remains one of the league’s elite quarterbacks and his presence seems to be instilling confidence in a young Jets team that finished with a six-game losing streak and a 7-10 record.
It’s possible Rodgers can be the final piece to the Jets’ puzzle. Tom Brady was exactly what the Buccaneers needed when he moved from New England to Tampa Bay as a free agent in 2020.
At the time, many bookmakers, including John Murray at the Westgate SuperBook, laughed at the public for enthusiastically betting on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl before Brady’s first season with a new team. Tampa Bay made the playoffs as a wild-card team and Brady won his seventh Super Bowl, going through Rodgers in Green Bay along the way.
In addition to the Jets, Murray said the betting public has been playing the Steelers (30/1), Falcons (50/1), Bears (60/1), and Raiders (60/1) as long shots.
“We would get crushed on two teams winning the Super Bowl — the Jets and Raiders,” Golden Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller said.
Andrews is also seeing a Las Vegas bias in the betting, but it’s not sharp money. The South Point is offering the Raiders to win the Super Bowl at 25/1 odds, a ridiculous number considering reality and comparing it to the Circa Sports odds of 100/1.
Two other AFC West teams are tantalizing to bettors. The Chargers, who seem to draw sharp play every year, recently dipped to 18/1 from 28/1 at Circa. The Broncos are posted at 60-1 at Westgate, 46/1 at Circa, and 20/1 at South Point.
Denver was a hot commodity a year ago before quarterback Russell Wilson bombed and the Broncos turned into a last-place bust in the division. With new coach Sean Payton taking over, optimism surrounded the Broncos this summer — before their offense turned in dismal showings in the first two preseason games.
“We had early play on Denver, with people thinking Payton can turn around Wilson, but now it’s starting to come back the other way,” Andrews said.
Another hot AFC team a year ago is not so hot with bettors this summer.
“The Bills are kind of a forgotten team,” Murray said. “Everyone is talking about the Chiefs, Bengals and Jets. I think it’s interesting how under the radar the Bills are now.”
